December 2024

Sunday 01 December to Tuesday 31 December 2024

Dear 

Please find below our most recent Burkina Faso Monthly Security Report - Data-focused. If you have any queries about our reports please contact us at africaops@castorvali.com.

All developments and articles can be found in our report issued earlier this month, through this link: Burkina Faso December 2024 Monthly Report.

• Militant violence in Burkina Faso continued to evolve throughout 2024. Groups such as Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), and other armed factions have adapted their tactics and shifted their geographic focus, significantly impacting the security landscape.

• On 18 December 2024, customs authorities in Cinkansé, Koulpélogo Province (in Centre-Est Region), intercepted three individuals attempting to smuggle 28.6 kg of gold, valued at approximately USD 2.3 million, en route to Lomé, Togo. The suspects reportedly admitted to acting on behalf of an unidentified third party.

• On 22 December 2024, Burkina Faso's transitional government passed a bill granting amnesty to individuals convicted for their involvement in the failed 2015 coup attempt, contingent on acknowledging their actions, demonstrating good conduct, and agreeing to participate in counter-terrorism operations. A few days later, on 26 December, President Ibrahim Traoré authorised the release of up to 1,200 prisoners, effective 01 January 2025. The release targeted those who had served their sentences and expressed a willingness to reintegrate, although political prisoners and non-combatants were excluded from this measure.

• Emerging Trends & Events:
  
  • New government appointed. On 08 December 2024, President Ibrahim Traoré appointed a new government. Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouédraogo, communications minister and government spokesperson, was appointed as the new prime minister.
    
  • Junta regional bloc establishes visa-free zone for ECOWAS nationals. On 14 December 2024, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, announced the creation of a visa-free zone for all nationals of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). According to the declaration, ECOWAS nationals will maintain the right to enter, move freely within, reside in, settle, and exit AES territories.
    
  • AES reject six-month withdrawal period. On 22 December 2024, the military-led transitional governments of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso rejected the six-month withdrawal period granted by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc for their exit. In a statement, the countries said they saw it as an “attempt at external destabilisation”.
    
  • Military receives delivery of armoured vehicles from China. On 22 December 2024, the military received a delivery of 50 Chinese-manufactured armoured vehicles. The acquisition of military equipment forms part of the interim administration’s Strategic Equipment Plan to enhance the army’s counter-terrorism efforts.
    

• Moving forward, Burkina Faso's security forces are likely to face continued challenges in consolidating control over key territories, particularly in resource-rich regions, in the long term. Militant actors will likely maintain pressure through a combination of territorial expansion, economic disruption, and asymmetric tactics, ensuring that the conflict remains dynamic and complex.

• Gold smuggling is likely to remain a significant threat to Burkina Faso's stability and security particularly given the deep-rooted challenges in its mining sector and governance. While efforts to address informal artisanal mining could help reduce smuggling, the process will be slow and dependent on both domestic and external factors. The state will likely struggle to implement meaningful reforms unless there is substantial political will and external support, as entrenched corruption and limited resources may hinder progress.

• Government measures and amnesty are unlikely to significantly alter the country’s security dynamics. While the integration of former coup plotters into military operations may enhance the government's capacity to combat armed groups, the release of prisoners, although alleviating prison overcrowding, does not address the underlying causes of instability, such as governance issues and widespread poverty.

Castor Vali advises its clients to limit all but essential travel to Ouagadougou and against all travel outside of Ouagadougou.

On 20 September 2024, the president of the special delegation (PDS) of the municipality of Ouagadougou announced the introduction of new security measures at the city’s entrances. Vehicles that were previously exempt from verification – including ambulances, hearses, armoured vehicles, and those belonging to the diplomatic corps and mining sectors – will now be subject to systematic checks. The PDS also noted that drivers or accompanying personnel must present official documents, such as a mission order, a transfer order for deceased individuals, or a diplomatic card, to gain entry into the city. Furthermore, vehicles displaying pennants or distinctive markings are required to remove them prior to entering the city. The new measures are likely in response to the 24 August 2024 militant attack that the al-Qaeda-aligned JNIM extremist group carried out in Barsalogho, located 40 km north of Kaya, which is a strategic town critical for the defence of the capital, Ouagadougou. Ongoing efforts to retake Barsalogho and enhanced security measures in Ouagadougou should mitigate the risk of a major attack on the city. Further movement restrictions in the city are possible in the near term.

On 01 March 2024, a memorandum from the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Brigadier General Célestin Simporté, expressed concerns about potential suicide bombings in urban centres. Clients are advised to exercise increased vigilance in case of essential travel to major urban areas in the short to medium term, including Ouagadougou.

On Tuesday 02 May 2023, the transitional government extended, for an unlimited period, the state of emergency currently observed in provinces that include Banwa, Kossi, Nayala and Sourou in Boucle du Mouhoun Region; Koulpelogo in Centre-Est Region; Gnagna, Gourma, Komondjari, Kompienga and Tapoa in Est Region; Kenedougou and Tuy in Hauts-Bassins Region; Loroum and Yatenga in Nord Region; Oudalan, Seno, Soum, and Yagha in Sahel Region; Comoe in the Cascades Region; and Bam, Namentenga and Sanmatenga in Centre-Nord Region. While no additional information was provided, the decree will “strengthen the existence of legal means” to combat terrorism in these administrative divisions. All these areas remain under strict curfew.

The government has also extended ongoing, overnight, security-related curfews in several Sahel region localities, until at least the end of the year. While the town of Dori is exempt from these measures, curfews in Djibo will continue to run between 0000hrs and 0400hrs, while the curfew in the Bani, Falagountou, Sampelga, Seytenga, Gorom-Gorom, Markoye, and Sebba townships is between 2200hrs and 0400hrs.

On 12 November 2024, local authorities lifted all curfews in the Est region. A curfew had been in place in the area for the past five years.

Following the military coup on 30 September 2022, air borders were briefly closed and while they since have re-opened, the national air space could close again on short to no notice. Land borders are also open.

1. Kossi Province: On 01 December 2024, Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) militants attacked a position of Burkinabe forces and Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland fighters (VDP) in the town of Bomborokui. At least 10 soldiers and VDPs were killed. The militants also caused extensive material damage and also set fire to shops and houses in the town. JNIM claimed to have attacked the camp and seized a vehicle and four motorcycles, weapons including 10 Kalashnikovs, and various other items.
2. Loroum Province: On 05 December 2024, JNIM militants attacked a VDP position in the village of You (Titao department). The Burkinabe air force intervened and conducted several drone strikes against the militants. JNIM claimed to have killed 12 soldiers, and seized 161 magazines, two motorcycles, a large quantity of weapons including 20 Kalashnikovs, and various other items, the statement claimed.
3. Bam/Soum Provinces: On 08 December 2024, Burkinabe forces escorting a food supplies convoy struck several IEDs likely planted by JNIM militants between Namssiguia (Bourzanga department) and Mentao (Pobe-Mengao department). JNIM claimed to have planted the IEDs along with others between Namssiguia and Djibo. The explosions resulted in human and equipment losses, the statement claimed.
4. Nahouri Province: At 2000hrs on 10 December 2024, the detonation of two vehicles carrying explosives along the Po-Dakola axis at the Tambolo customs checkpoint killed five people. While the precise cause of the explosion remains unclear, militant groups are known to employ explosive attacks as part of their campaign against the state. However, the Po-Dakola axis is a significant transit corridor connecting Burkina Faso to the Ghanaian border. The route is frequently used to transport materials, including explosives destined for gold mining operations in the region. Accidental detonations of mining explosives are known to occur in Burkina Faso.
5. Kossi Province: On 10 December 2024, Burkinabe air forces and special forces from the Rapid Intervention Battalion 10 (BIR 10) carried out air and ground operations against JNIM militants in the area of Sadigan (Bomborokui department). Several air strikes were carried out against the militants, followed by sweeps and clashes. The soldiers seized many weapons, ammunitions, motorcycles, magazines, mobile phones, solar panels, communication radios, and various other items. Local sources stated that at least 30 militants were killed while official public media stated that 102 militants were killed.
6. Séno/Sanmatenga Provinces: On 17 December 2024, suspected militants reportedly attacked a civilian convoy on the National Road 3. The trucks, heading to Niamey, Niger, were attacked between Kaya and Dori. Additional reports indicate that at least six of these vehicles were set on fire by the suspected militants.
7. Gourma Province: On 20 December 2024, JNIM claimed it had captured a VDP post and a Burkinabe military barracks in Tagou and Nagaré.
8. Koulpélogo Province: On 25 December 2024, suspected JNIM militants attacked Sologo 2 village and killed six VDP members. Additional reports also indicate at least 20 people were injured, with one VDP member reported missing. The village was looted, and granaries were destroyed.
9. Mouhoun Province: On 30 December 2024, suspected JNIM militants reportedly ambushed a Burkinabe military convoy in Dédougou. Fatalities are unknown.

Data source: ACLED

Data source: ACLED

Data source: ACLED

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You have received this report as part of your organisation’s subscription. Castor Vali assessment and advice is given based on the information received and processed by us and the surrounding circumstances known to us to exist at the time. Subsequent changes to relevant information or the surrounding circumstances may affect the reliability of our assessment and advice, but we do not accept responsibility for that effect. We do not accept responsibility for the outcome of any action taken or not taken as a result of our assessment and advice unless the possibility of that action being taken or not taken is set out in specific terms in our instructions.