The recent U.S. sanctions against the Hungary-Russia sponsored IIB and employed nationals is indeed an unprecedented step against a NATO and EU member state. The U.S. Office of Assets Control (OFAC) is not an organization that steps lightly. The regulatory nature of its mission prohibits otherwise.
What’s happening? The Biden Administration is pursuing an agenda that, in part, is seeking to separate liberal democracies from those that chose to lean otherwise; however, putting ideology aside, there may be a new pragmatism at hand. Vladimir Putin’s wholly unjustified (second) invasion of Ukraine pushed Budapest to a point unforeseen.
This has led Budapest to recalibrate. The greater question is: “To what end?” Global and public opinion is not insignificant, much less the impact of sanctions. In some respects, what we are seeing is a win for norms of the transatlantic world order. Is Orbán listening?
He may well be. We reported recently that Hungary’s Prime Minister noted that Budapest may need reconsider its relations with Moscow. As welcome as this may be, words need be followed by action. One interpretation of the recent IIB sanctions is that the increased pressure from Washington and Brussels may, with subtle acquiescence, give Budapest the basis for a gradual decoupling from the Kremlin. The Visegrad Four countries minus Hungary have made their pro-Kyiv stance clear. If Hungary is to start turning westward, then this might be the moment. However, other authoritarian-leaning leaders in Serbia and Turkey have shown their tenuous ability to walk the line between East-West. Not being EU Member States, their stakes are lower. The question then is how much Hungary can afford? A contracting global economy suggests little.
Is Orbán alone? It appears increasingly so. Putin’s gambit on a second Ukrainian invasion takes on a new short-sightedness. As a European state, Hungary is increasingly alone in its deference to Putin’s agenda – for now.
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