ISSUE 25

 17. - 23. 04. 2023

• Security situation update
• Ramstein group meeting: Is the support enough?
• Ukraine resumes electricity exports to the EU and Moldova
• Ukrainian grain faces ban
• Sexual crimes as a tool of warfare
• What kind of local government does Ukraine need for successful reconstruction?
• The arbitration tribunal in The Hague orders Russia to pay $5 billion to Ukrainian Naftogaz for seized assets in Crimea
• Russia must stop deporting Ukrainian children

You can find a PDF version of this issue suitable for printing at the bottom of the newsletter.

Russia continues to concentrate its main efforts on conducting offensive operations in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka directions. The fiercest battles for the cities of Bakhmut and Maryinka (Donetsk region) are ongoing, with Ukrainian defense forces repelling more than 60 enemy attacks per day. According to unverified reports, the Russians managed to breach one of the most important lines of fortifications in front of the Khromove highway and cut off supplies to Ukrainian fighters in Bakhmut. But despite all the odds, part of the city is still controlled by the Ukrainian defenders. 

Source: https://twitter.com/War_Mapper...

Russian forces attempted to improve their tactical position in the area of Kreminna and conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Hryhorivka. Joined units of the Russian regular forces and private military company Wagner conducted several attacks near Avdiivka, Kamianka, Pervomaiske, Vodyane, and Nevelske, though did not achieve significant results. In the short term, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) will continue to pursue their chosen strategy of inflicting the enemy maximum losses in close combat on the fronts where the most force is being concentrated, partly due to the shortage of ammunition for artillery.

On 21 April, Russia launched “up to 12” Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 kamikaze attack drones, eight of which were targeting Kyiv. This was the first kamikaze drone attack in 25 days. In the last ten days of April, Russia intensified air attacks on Ukraine using Iranian Shahed drones, allegedly having received a new shipment of unmanned aircraft of this type. AFU reported that the waves of drone attacks are structured with the aim of identifying the locations of the Ukrainian air defense, especially after the recent announcement that Ukraine finally received its first Patriot systems.

Every day, Russian forces shell Ukrainian communities along the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as the current frontline with different types of munitions. Villages and towns of Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, suffer from these attacks, which severely damage residential areas and increase the death toll among civilians. S-300 missiles are mostly used there, targeting civilian infrastructure, but the Russians also attack up to 12 regions of Ukraine daily with grenade launchers, mortars, and various other artillery systems.

ANALYSIS

Russia concentrates its efforts on attacking Ukrainian positions in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as strengthening defense fortifications in the occupied territories in the south of Ukraine - in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. According to Ukrainian reports, for the week of 5 May the self-proclaimed Russian authorities announced the evacuation of the civilian population of Enerhodar - an occupied town where the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is located. There were also reports, yet unconfirmed by Ukrainian authorities, that Ukrainian forces took up positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Expectations about a Ukrainian counteroffensive are growing, causing a lot of speculation around possible dates and directions. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, in an attempt to manage these public narratives, warned against boiling down the counteroffensive to particular large-scale advances, which would be a very narrow understanding.

“Preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for various actions of defensive and offensive nature is underway. Counteroffensive actions are already taking place in Eastern Ukraine”, a statement of the deputy defense minister Hanna Maliar reads. However, Ukrainian leadership, as well as some international opinion-makers, continue to fuel public anticipation of rapid actions, including a possible advancement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces into Crimea already by the end of spring, as foresees the Head of Military Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov. Meanwhile, military analysts are largely cautious in assessing the perspectives of the Ukrainian pushback in the territories currently occupied by Russia. It creates a situation in which the political leadership of the country will likely be faced with the challenge of managing very high public expectations in case developments on the battlefield appear to be less ambitious and successful than declared.

The 11th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) was held on 21 April at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where not only Ukraine’s immediate needs were discussed but also its strategy for the entire year of 2023. In preparation for the meeting, Ukraine called for an increase in the supply of both air defense systems and missiles, as its air defense forces spent a significant number of missiles fending off massive attacks from Russia during fall and winter. Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, revealed Ukraine’s air defense forces destroyed 750 Russian cruise missiles and 750 kamikaze drones in this period. In addition to these defensive efforts, the Ukrainian Air Force has also taken down 600 units of piloted enemy aircraft, such as planes and helicopters, he said. Media reports, based on the leaked U.S. national security documents, also speculated that Ukraine would deplete its missiles stockpiles by 23 May. Therefore, Ukraine allegedly requested surface-to-air missile shipments at the Ramstein military coordination group meeting, concerned that a severe shortage could allow Russia to launch extensive bombing attacks.

On the eve of the meeting in Ramstein, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg came to Kyiv with the first unannounced visit since the beginning of the large-scale invasion. He echoed the message of President Zelenskyy to the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, stressing the importance of stepping up military aid for Ukraine as it continues to defend itself against Russia’s brutal war of aggression. “I just came back from Kyiv yesterday night and I met with President Zelenskyy, and his message was that he really appreciates and welcomes the strong support NATO Allies and partners have provided for Ukraine, but also counts on us to continue to support Ukraine in the future,” he said.

After a full day of discussion during the 11th meeting of the UDCG at Ramstein Air Base, the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III reminded more than 50 participating nations of the significance of their commitments. Most recently, he said, members of the UDCG have delivered to Ukraine more than 230 tanks and more than 1,550 armored vehicles, along with other equipment and materials that have allowed the Ukrainians to support more than nine new armored brigades. Under the expedited plans, the U.S. will send to Ukraine M1A1 Abrams tanks, and those tanks will be delivered in the fall - faster than originally expected.

However, the Ramstein meeting did not bring clarity on the supply of long-range missiles and fighter jets to Kyiv. When asked whether there was a chance the U.S. had changed its mind about providing Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said that those were policy decisions to be made by political leaders. Ensuring the rigor of the Ukrainian air defense system “is the most critical thing right now,” he added.

Following the meeting, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov publicly thanked his counterparts and summarized that “Russia is getting closer to Nuremberg II. Each meeting in this format not only provides more useful "gifts" for the Ukrainian Army but also aims to bring criminals to justice”, without going into details.

ANALYSIS

In accordance with media reports, Ukraine did not achieve all the set goals for the meeting, though had reconfirmed commitments about munitions, tanks, and artillery systems supplies.  The current level of support is likely sufficient for preventing Russia’s aerial dominance, as well as its rapid advances in the land domain, but experts believe that the Ukrainian counteroffensive operation still remains under-resourced, both in terms of weapons, as well as trained staff. Ukrainian officials mention that the West overestimated its own capabilities regarding assistance to Ukrainian armed forces: supplies are delayed, and declared numbers of weapons do not correspond to those ready to be deployed. 

The intensity of combat, as well as the scale of the war in the territory of Ukraine, are not fully understood, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk claimed in his recent interview: the participants of the international coalition have provided Ukraine with $55 billion worth of support in total, and though the figures sound impressive, they are even smaller than the amount of land-lease the U.S. provided to the Soviet Union in the 1940s, whereas the frontline in Ukraine is similar to the length of that in World War II. And while Ukraine appreciates the unprecedented assistance it receives, “our allies have to comprehend the scale of this war. The support needs to be 10 times bigger right now,” the Deputy Minister asserted. This is even more critical in anticipation of the counteroffensive operation, experts believe, for which Ukraine will have only one attempt. 

Ukraine resumed electricity exports to Moldova (up to 95 MW at different hours) and to Poland (up to 75 MW at different hours). Subsequently, a third direction was opened - to Slovakia. 

Last week, the supply of Ukrainian electricity to Slovakia and Poland was at the maximum possible level - 4,800 MW and 1,800 MW per day, as well as 500-1,000 MWh to Moldova. The price per MWh varies from ₴ (UAH) 363 to ₴ (UAH) 1300/MWh (€ 9-27 MWh). About ten state and private companies are competing for the right to export. There is a surplus of electricity in the energy system of Ukraine due to the active operation of hydroelectric plants (they currently generate 33% of electricity) and a reduction in consumption by Ukraine because the heating season has ended. The money received for the sold electricity is a resource that the power system needs to partially finance the recovery until next winter. 

ANALYSIS

Ukraine took an important place in the European energy market after the unification of energy systems a year ago. In the summer, the first export of electricity began, which brought Ukraine considerable funds. However, at the beginning of October, the sale of electricity had to be stopped, because, after the start of the large-scale attacks by the Russians on the energy facilities of Ukraine, Ukraine itself began to experience an acute shortage of electricity. In winter, Ukraine even imported electricity from the EU, which significantly helped the Ukrainian industry. 

For the EU, Ukrainian electricity is profitable, as it is both cheap and clean, as it is produced mainly by nuclear power plants and renewable sources. In addition, the export of electricity to the EU will help displace gas-fired power plants that operate on Russian fuel in many EU countries. That is, Russia will receive less money to wage its war against Ukraine. 

Ukraine hopes to reach last year's export volumes and plans to conduct negotiations on increasing them. The reserves in the system enable this. Currently, the plan focuses on the interstate connectors between Ukraine and Poland. The opening of an additional power transmission line with Poland is expected, which will allow increasing the capacity for export, as well as the adoption of a decision by ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators) to increase the permitted export capacity by several times. 

At the same time, the export of electricity will be stopped in the case of a shortage of generation capacity for domestic consumers. It is not known how long the restored export of electricity can last, taking into account the planned repair campaigns for nuclear and thermal generation. Income from the sale of electricity is also a source of tariff support for the population of Ukraine, as exporters will direct 80% of the income from this operation to cover the difference between the market price of electricity and its cost for domestic consumers.  

The fact that Ukraine has stabilized its energy sector is partly due to the fact that electricity consumption in Ukraine is still about 30-35% lower than before the war. This decrease is related to the reduction of industrial activity and the fact that several million Ukrainians remain abroad. However, after more than six months of Russian attacks that forced millions of Ukrainians to sit in the dark, the country now has a surplus of electricity and can sell it, and this is a real cause for celebration. In general, more than 60% of Ukraine's power generation capacities were damaged during the bombings. At the height of the airstrikes in December and January, the electricity deficit in Ukraine increased to 30%. At least 12 million Ukrainians were forced to remain without electricity, water, or heating at various times. We wrote about it in detail here. In March 2023, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) estimated losses of Ukraine’s power, gas, and heating infrastructure, caused by Russia's attacks, at more than $10 billion, of which $6.5 billion are losses caused specifically to the power sector. 

Currently, Ukrenergo is making special efforts to replace large autotransformers that provide voltage switching from power lines. This is the scarcest piece of equipment. The repair of the Ukrainian energy sector is also significantly complicated by the fact that Russia is constantly striking infrastructure already affected by drones and missiles. This makes reconstruction and maintenance dangerous and a protracted problem. 

In 2022, the export of agricultural products made up 53% of all exports of Ukraine. This brought more than $23 billion to the state budget. Although the income from trade in agricultural products has almost halved compared to 2021, this has been the main source of foreign currency inflows into the country during the war (in addition to international financial support). In April 2023, neighboring countries such as Poland and Hungary unilaterally banned the import and transit of Ukrainian food products due to the concerns of local farmers. 

ANALYSIS

In the first months of the full-scale Russian invasion, Ukraine had no opportunity to export agricultural products to its usual buyers (countries of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa) due to Russia's blockade of sea routes. Therefore, there was an urgent reorientation of the market to (mainly Eastern) European countries. Thanks to the abolition of trade restrictions and duties on goods, Ukrainian farmers had the opportunity to continue their work. The EU generally accounted for more than 50% of Ukraine's food exports in 2022. The largest partners were Poland and Romania, which purchased Ukrainian products worth $2.6 billion each. This amount of food products from Ukraine led to increased competition and affected the sales volumes of local farmers. The protests started in Poland. After the precedent of Warsaw's ban on imports, other countries also began to implement similar rules. This will obviously hurt Ukraine and its revenues. However, such a ban will reduce competition in the EU markets and increase product prices. In the conditions of inflation and global recession, it will hit the population of European countries. 

In turn, Ukraine foresaw that local producers in neighboring countries would be dissatisfied with the market's increased competition. Polish farmers began to complain about the challenges in selling their products at the end of 2022. At that time, the governments of Ukraine and Poland did not react appropriately and did not start developing plans to settle the situation, which would benefit everyone. This led to an aggravation of the problem and radical decisions by Ukraine's partners. 

The European Commission has previously stated that such unilateral import bans are against EU rules. On 19 April, it became known that there was a plan to develop "preventive measures" for importing goods from Ukraine to Europe. It is not yet known precisely what such measures will look like. Ukraine should not hope for a complete unblocking of grain imports. Currently, the government faces a difficult diplomatic and economic task: to develop a plan of measures together with partners not to lose revenues to the budget from exports. At the same time, such a plan should satisfy manufacturers in Eastern European countries. After all, without restoring the trade process, Ukraine risks losing a large part of its budget revenues. 

On 19 April, the US Congress Hearing on the subject of "Exposing Putin’s Crimes: Evidence of Russian War Crimes and Other Atrocities in Ukraine" took place. Andriy Kostin, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, informed that more than 80,000 war crimes committed by the Russian Military in Ukraine have been filed by Ukraine’s General Prosecutor's Office. The witness testimonies on all types of crimes listed under the Geneva Conventions have been recorded, including electrocution, suffocation, ferocious beating, waterboarding, and sexual violence, which holds a special place among those tortures as it is considered as one of the instruments of warfare.

ANALYSIS

As of 3 June 2022, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) had received reports of 124 acts of conflict-related sexual violence across Ukraine, mostly against women and girls. According to the Human Rights Watch “World Report 2023: Ukraine”, women, including older women and girls, constituted the majority of all reported victims. Natalia Karbowska, Co-Founder and Director of Strategic Development for the Ukrainian Women’s Fund, said that “The Russian Federation is using sexual violence and rape as instruments of terror to control civilians.” 

Chairman Michael McCaul expressed in his statement that Russia has employed the use of terror, including the rape of children and the elderly, to break the will of the Ukrainian people, and to subjugate and eliminate Ukrainian resistance. The systematic nature of these crimes demonstrates that they are tools of Russian tactical war. “These were not the actions of some rough soldiers, but rather a planned and financed operation of terror sanctioned at the highest level of the Kremlin.” 

Similar patterns of sexual torture aimed at wiping out a nation's existence can be found in reports on sexual crimes committed by Russian Forces in Chechnya documented between 1999 and 2004. In the majority of cases described in reports by Human Rights Watch, the Medical Foundation for the Care of Victims of Torture (London), Médecins Sans Frontières, and others, which were prepared based on working with Chechen refugees, the testimonies of gang rapes, forced witnessing of violence, beating, using electrocution, throwing down into deep pits, waterboarding, and torture by burning cigarettes – just to name a few – were used to terrorize civilians and make women not able and/or willing to give birth in the future.  

In its report issued in 2000, Human Rights Watch mentioned a single case of the arrest of one of the Russian colonels and called it a step in the right direction. In fact, the perpetrators have never been brought to justice for a range of reasons including the second Russian invasion of Chechnya, the lack of international institutional support, and the increasing Russian propaganda and influence inside and outside the country which has been denying all potential war crimes committed by the Russian military. 

Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba, speaking to the audience of the International Conference dedicated to the aspects of sexual violence in terms of the responsibility for war crimes, held on 1 February 2023, encouraged the endorsement of a Special Tribunal to bring the Russian political and military leadership to justice.  

Earlier, in September 2022, the Prosecutor General's Office informed about the creation of a new department dedicated to the investigations of sexual crimes related to the war. In close partnership with NGOs and international partners, the Prosecutor General's Office developed a strategy for countering sexual violence. The main purpose of the strategy is to implement a new approach to investigating sexual crimes, which shifts the focus from the perpetrator to the victim. If previously the role of the victim was limited to witnessing, now the full cycle of protection will be implemented, including psychological assistance, legal advising, protection of personal data, etc.  

On 20 April, Kyiv hosted the International Summit of Cities and Regions. President Zelenskyy delivered a keynote speech at the summit calling municipalities from abroad to set up direct cooperation with Ukrainian cities and communities for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Various participants of the summit also emphasized the importance of continuing the decentralization reform.

ANALYSIS

In order for the President’s call to materialize, Ukraine also needs to do its homework, i.e. to ensure high quality and capability of local administration. Decentralization is perceived to be the most successful of Ukraine’s reforms conducted after 2014. It was also one of the factors of Ukraine’s resilience as Ukrainian cities and communities showed tremendous resistance against Russian aggression as well as coordinated humanitarian and recovery efforts. 

Decentralization reform, however, is not enough to ensure the economic development of territorial communities after the war and successful participation in the EU funding schemes. This is concluded by the European Commission in the “Analytical report on Ukraine’s alignment with the EU acquis” released in February 2023. While the European Commission praised decentralization reform, it also pointed to some issues to be addressed, such as insufficient development of financial management and control system and institutional framework for regional policy which is to set up the rules of coordination between the authorities at the different levels - local, regional, and national.  

The European Commission concluded that Ukraine’s administrative capacity at the local level is still insufficient to deal with the requirements of EU regional policy to manage and spend large-scale funds. This comment is crucial with regards to the future management of funds for reconstruction of destroyed cities and communities. As a response to this challenge of the lack of capacity, the Ukrainian government is planning to set up “reform support teams” within local communities. This model of externally-hired consultants within reform support teams was tested at the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministries as well as several other ministries.  

Despite the fact that Ukrainian public administration needs systemic changes and new personnel, this reform did not bring about the desired changes. Thus, the best solution for Ukraine would be to develop institutional capacity of local governance in line with EU acquis attracting EU technical assistance and support for increasing the local governance capacity. Developing capacities at the local level is key for successful reconstruction, as according to Ukrainian decentralization experts, it is necessary to ensure that the people are the priority. 

The arbitration tribunal at the Permanent Chamber of the Arbitration Court in The Hague ordered the Russian Federation to pay $5 billion to Naftogaz of Ukraine. This money is compensation for the assets that the Ukrainian state company owned in Crimea before its temporary occupation by the Russians. 

The most famous in this list are two drilling rigs, which are also called "Boyko rigs". Their purchase during the time of Viktor Yanukovych was accompanied by a high-profile corruption scandal with the overpayment of hundreds of millions of dollars. In the summer of 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a missile attack on these drilling platforms, so it is impossible to assess their physical condition before the de-occupation of the peninsula.

However, the most significant loss for Naftogaz is the Black Sea shelf. In Crimea, the occupants "nationalized" 15 oil and gas deposits and at least three more promising hydrocarbon sites. According to the experts of the Ukrainian state company, Ukraine has lost the opportunity to develop deposits, the reserves of which are about 50 billion cubic meters of gas, 3.5 million tons of oil, and 1 million tons of gas condensate. After the annexation, the occupants continued to use these deposits illegally, simply stealing Ukrainian hydrocarbons. The lion's share of the losses incurred by the state-owned company is due to this.

The Russians also took the Hlibov underground storage facility with its gas reserves, more than 1,200 km of main gas pipelines, 43 gas distribution stations, a fleet of 29 vessels, 4 floating drilling rigs (including "Boyk towers"), administrative buildings, financial assets, and many other objects of production infrastructure.

All these assets together amounted to a value of more than $10 billion dollars.

ANALYSIS

The assets of the National Joint Stock Company (NJSC) "Naftogaz" were "nationalized" by the Russian occupation administration in Crimea on 17 March 2014. After that, legal preparations for compensation for the company's losses began, which lasted more than 2.5 years. 

In October 2016, the NJSC Naftogaz and six of its subsidiaries initiated arbitration proceedings against Russia. In 2017, the lawsuit was filed with the International Tribunal at the Permanent Chamber of the Arbitration Court in The Hague. 

In February 2019, the court confirmed Russia's responsibility for violating the intergovernmental agreement on investment protection, including the article on the prohibition of expropriation. The Ukrainian state-owned company submitted a statement to the court about the amount of compensation for losses from the expropriation of assets in Crimea. Subsequently, Naftogaz in a statement in response additionally substantiates the amount of compensation for losses, estimating them at about $5 billion dollars plus interest. 

In July 2022, the Hague Court of Appeal confirmed the jurisdiction of the Arbitral Tribunal in the case. So far, the amount of losses, according to Naftogaz's estimate, has exceeded $10 billion. In the end, the court sided with the Ukrainian company but obliged the Russians to compensate only half of the losses - $5 billion. 

The main question is how to get this compensation. In accordance with its obligations under international law, Russia must comply with the court's decision, but during a major war with Ukraine, it is difficult to believe in such a scenario. All the more so against the background of the expected counteroffensive and forecasts regarding the de-occupation of the peninsula by the Ukrainian military. Officials in Russia said that they need some time to analyze the decision. 

However, such arbitration decisions can be implemented through the enforcement mechanism. And this is the path, judging by everything, Naftogaz will have to go through. "In case of Russia's refusal to voluntarily implement the decision, in accordance with the New York Convention of 1958, to which Ukraine is a party, Naftogaz plans to start the process of recognition and admission to forced implementation of such a decision on the territory of those states where commercial assets of Russia are located," the company said. 

The leading American law firm Covington & Burling LLP presented a strategy to collect $5 billion in compensation from Russia for the seizure of the Naftogaz assets in Crimea. Obviously, in the near future, the search for the property of the Russian Federation or Russian state-owned companies in other states, its seizure, and sale at auctions to repay the debt will begin. 

The process is rather difficult and long. Its complexity can be estimated from the example of the state-owned "Oschadbank", which received the verdict of the Arbitration Tribunal in Paris back in 2018, and is still continuing this work. In May 2018, the International Court of Arbitration in The Hague awarded compensation in the amount of $159 million to 17 Ukrainian companies that lost assets in Crimea: most of them were connected to oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky. After the decision of the arbitration court to award compensation to 17 Ukrainian companies, the Ministry of Justice of Russia said that they do not recognize this decision. 

Nevertheless, Naftogaz already has one victory over Gazprom in its portfolio in 2018 for a similar amount - about $5 billion dollars. 

More than 55 children were reunited with their families in Ukraine recently after a lengthy operation to bring them back from Russia, where they had been taken from occupied areas during the past year. "There were kids who were taken to five different locations in five months; some say that they were living with rats and cockroaches," said Mykola Kuleba, the former Ombudsman for Children with the office of the President of Ukraine and the founder of the charitable fund “Save Ukraine”. 

According to the Ukrainian authorities, over 19,514 Ukrainian children were illegally deported to Russia after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There is data on 1.5 million Ukrainian children who were taken to Russia or temporarily occupied territories after 2014. Since 24 February last year, only 361 minors have been returned. Last month, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Children's Commissioner  Maria Lvova-Belova over war crimes related to the abduction and deportation of children from Ukraine. In April, an international event dedicated to this problem will be held in Kyiv with the participation of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki, and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen. 

ANALYSIS

Ukrainian children have become innocent hostages of the Kremlin regime, the main goal of which is to erase their national identity. The independent commission of the UN and the prosecutors of the ICC noted that Russia forcibly abducts children and displaces them. Such actions contain features of genocide, according to the definition of this crime in Article II of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. After deportation, children are subjected to forced passporting, adoption, and russification. To implement this algorithm, Kremlin authorities have prepared a legislative framework, simplifying the procedure for obtaining Russian citizenship and adoption for Ukrainian children. In addition, according to the study of the Conflict Observatory, 43 camps for the "ideological re-education" of Ukrainian children operate on the territory of Russia and in occupied Crimea. More than 6,000 Ukrainian children went through such institutions. All these facts violate the Convention on the Rights of the Child, to which Russia is a party.  

Despite public judgment and pressure from the international community, Moscow is still not taking any steps to return Ukrainian children home. Instead, the aggressor state continues to stubbornly manipulate facts and spread propaganda messages in its defense. The culmination of cynicism was Lvova-Belova's speech at the UN Security Council, which was condemned by more than 50 countries and the EU.  Political and diplomatic condemnations are the right answer, but not enough in this case. Three key tasks are currently on the agenda:  

• collection of evidence about the forced deportation of Ukrainian children by Russia and their search, 
• returning minors home, 
• prosecution of all those involved in such criminal actions. 

The visit of high-ranking officials to Kyiv should give impetus to solving these problems. Despite the situation's complexity, the international community and the Ukrainian authorities must act fast because children need immediate help. 

Russia's current war against Ukraine demonstrated the readiness of the democratic world to unite in the fight for freedom and liberal values. However, there are democracies all over the world in need of protection against autocracies willing to challenge international order. One year from the start of full-scale invasion, we introduce you the report “War in Ukraine: Lessons identified and lessons learned“, which analyzes policies and practices that have impacted Ukraine’s resilience in key sectors. Outcomes of this research can be used as recommendations for other democracies building resilience against conventional, hybrid, or other threats (e.g., natural disasters), from Europe to the Pacific.

Thank you.

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