Russia started to use guided aerial bombs in Ukraine |
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- First recorded incidents
- What is a guided aerial bomb?
- How to respond?
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Russia pursues alliances within Arab nations: the UAE is a stable partner in unstable times |
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- Russia and its growing relationship with UAE
- Arab world seeks balance between warring parties
- What to do?
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U.S. documents surrounding war efforts in Ukraine allegedly leaked |
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- Several documents regarding Ukraine and Russian intelligence leaked
- U.S. still unsure of how the leak occurred
- What to Do?
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Russia started to use guided aerial bombs in Ukraine |
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The Russian army began to use winged aerial bombs for attacks on Ukraine, which is a new threat for Kyiv, reported a spokesman of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The official emphasized that the Russian side uses modified cruise bombs in the front-line zone almost every day. The first recorded attack happened in Chernihiv oblast in late February. At least 14 bombs killed two and injured 11 civilians in two attacks in Kherson and Sumy oblasts on 27 and 28 March. This was the second attack in Sumy oblast in a few days, as ten guided bombs were launched on 24 March.
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What is a guided aerial bomb? |
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First time, this type of bomb was demonstrated only in 2019, and before that, it was not known that it was already in service with the Russian army. Guided bombs are the regular gravity 500-kilogram FAB-500 bombs but modified to be dropped by multirole fighter-bombers. The high threat of using the guided aerial bombs is that it belongs to the gliders, are equipped with an inertial and satellite navigation system, and has a warhead weighing from 500 to 1010 kg designed to hit highly protected objects.
The tactic of usage includes launching bombs against targets 70 km beyond the state border or frontline, which Ukrainian air defence is unable to intercept. "They drop these bombs without flying into the zone of damage to our air defence. 500 kg bombs fly dozens of kilometres, let me remind you, this bomb has a warhead, something must be done about it", a spokesman of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said.
As these bombs have been produced a lot during Soviet times, Russia enjoys having a vast number of them. Turning simple bombs into guided ones will help Russia to unfold a tactical weapon that is much cheaper, more massive, and more effective than cruise and ballistic missiles, which have been depleted during the hostilities. What is even more. Russia could increase air support in conducting ground operations in the frontline regions. According to Russian military bloggers, the guided aerial bombs were used by occupiers in attacks against Avdiivka city in the Donetsk region, destroying multi-store residential buildings in the city.
Ukrainian air forces announced that Russia recently had been daily releasing up to 20 guided bombs with Russian Sukhoi Su-34 and Sukhoi Su-35 jets used as carriers.
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A spokesman of the Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces believes that the best way to mitigate the threats of guided aerial bomb usage is the arrival of the Western air defence as well as fighter jet supply to Ukraine. As Russians launch bombs as far as possible from the front line, the most efficient way is to shut down the planes that drop them. So, the Ukrainian government should intensify an aviation coalition negotiation with Western partners to provide Ukraine with a needed weapon for individual self-defence.
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Russia pursues alliances within Arab nations: the UAE is a stable partner in unstable times |
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Russia and its growing relationship with UAE |
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In recent years, the Russian Federation, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have cultivated a comprehensive relationship encompassing various domains, such as economic, political, and cultural spheres. The two nations have strengthened their collaboration in fields including trade, investment, energy, tourism, and most notably, defence.
Moreover, the Russian Federation and the UAE are collaborating on multiple significant energy initiatives, including the construction of the Barakah nuclear power plant situated in Abu Dhabi. Additionally, they have engaged in joint military exercises and have entered into multiple defence agreements. The UAE has emerged as a favourable and secure destination for Russian tourists, among other aspects of their relationship. The alliance between the Russian Federation and the UAE appears to be characterized by increasing collaboration and partnership, particularly in light of Russia's growing interest in military equipment. This notion is ostensibly supported by recent information obtained by U.S. intelligence operatives, which revealed Russian intelligence officers boasting that they had persuaded the UAE to "cooperate against U.S. and U.K. intelligence agencies," according to a purported U.S. document disseminated online following a substantial U.S. intelligence breach.
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Arab world seeks balance between warring parties |
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The alleged information about UAE-Russia cooperation comes at a time when cooperation between the Kremlin and Abu Dhabi is strengthening (especially since the start of the Russian aggression in Ukraine), although the origins of this relationship go back to the 1980s. Already in 2019, the UAE purchased $710 million of anti-tank weapons from Russia & the two countries cooperate very intensively within the framework of the so-called OPEC Plus in which they jointly figure as oil tycoons.
Western countries are even more nervous about the UAE's recent actions, which indicate the circumvention of sanctions against Russia. Not only the oil trade but also real estate trade in cities such as Dubai, has increased by 5 billion $ over the last three years & approximately 4,000 companies with Russian roots are operating within the country. There is also possible evidence of UAE financing the Wagner group. By all accounts, this has made Abu Dhabi the Kremlin's most important strategic partner. This is evidenced by the very warm communication between Putin and Mohammed bin Zayed, who visited Moscow last October 2022. Putin described their relationship then as "An important factor of stability in the region and the world despite all the difficulties that exist in the international realities today" and even broke a security regulation and lent the sheikh his coat after he was cold.
Both the UAE nor Russia do not rely heavily on formal intelligence institutions, but rather on informal information and intelligence networks. So, the strategic personal relationships have helped synchronize Russian-Emirati activities in the shadows.
As said, bilateral ties thus depend on personal ties. On the Russian side, two people are probably the most important. Mikhail Bogdanov (Russia's Middle East envoy) and Nikolai Patrushev (Russia’s national security chief and one of President Putin's closest men). It was Patrushev, who introduced Abu Dhabi's leadership to Putin's spy chief Sergei Naryshkin in 2020 when he formalized intelligence coordination at important regional agencies during a visit to the UAE.
Another very interesting and little-known piece of information is that the UAE, along with Russia, attempted to interfere in the 2016 US presidential election. Just days before Trump's inauguration in January 2017, Mohammed bin Zayed arranged a special meeting in Seychelles between Erik Prince (considered a Trump campaign intermediary) and Kirill Dmitriev (who runs a Russian sovereign wealth fund). This meeting was thus intended to create a secret backchannel between the Kremlin and the Trump White House.
Cooperation, however, is not only in the shadows of invisibility. Last month, for example, the special Index conference (a biennial international defence exhibition) was held in Abu Dhabi, where Russia was present. Russia even had its separate pavilion there, with more than 200 Russian weapons - including tanks and air defence systems & more being put on sale there. Interestingly, the Russian stall was out of the main hall where other countries like China or other world powers were.
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It is imperative to underscore that due to the diminishing influence of the United States and European nations on the Arab Peninsula, the task of rectifying or monitoring the situation is formidable. The UAE has emerged as a secure haven for Russia, in general, to act with impunity, despite Russian's culpability for the heinous crimes committed in Ukraine. Consequently, it is incumbent upon the EU or the USA to initiate diplomatic negotiations, bolster diplomatic ties with the UAE, and emphasize the need to curtail the funding of unlawful military factions and the proliferation of armaments.
The EU & US should also contemplate imposing targeted economic sanctions against the UAE. These sanctions could include freezing assets, imposing travel restrictions, and trade barriers. Additionally, Western countries ought to engage in greater collaboration with local and regional allies such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia.
Finally, Western nations must maintain their commitment to military aid for Ukraine, which will empower the Ukrainian people and government to resist even in the face of analogous partnerships that Russia is forging.
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U.S. documents surrounding war efforts in Ukraine allegedly leaked |
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Several documents regarding Ukraine and Russian intelligence leaked |
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After several leaked Pentagon documents detailing classified information regarding Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. allies were discovered in early April, the U.S. has been scrambling to locate the source of the leak and reassure its allies. While the U.S. is still assessing the scope of the leak, there is no doubt that this information exposes vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defence systems.
It is important to note that while these documents cover intelligence gathered from 28 February to 1 March of 2023, they pose profound implications for whether allies should continue to trust the U.S. with critical information that may be beneficial to Ukraine. While much of the information in the documents focus on the war efforts by Ukraine, there are also mentions of spying on U.S. allies as well as Russia. Despite the ongoing investigation, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has told the press that, “we take this very seriously, and we will continue to investigate and turn over every rock until we find the source of this and the extent of it.”
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U.S. still unsure of how the leak occurred |
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Despite the urgency of the investigation, there is no consensus on where these leaks originated from. However, there is a theory that emerged that the leaks may have originated from Discord, a social media platform often used by gamers. There had been a forum that discussed topics around the war in Ukraine and an online user by the name “Lucca” had supposedly shared these documents that were eventually circulated to the media. These claims have not yet been verified by the U.S. but remain under investigation. When pressed if this potential source is still a threat to U.S. security, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby replied: "The truth and the honest answer to your question are: We don't know. And is that a matter of concern to us? You're, darn right it is.”
While the severity of these claims from Mr Kirby is concerning, Chris Meagher, the top spokesman for the Pentagon, noted that some of the leaked slides may have been altered. Regardless of what information may have been doctored, this frantic investigation of these unexpected leaks only emphasizes congressional reports surrounding the concern over the difficulties of the U.S. in securing classified information. For a country that puts so much effort into gathering information from adversaries and allies, this leak and the current investigation go to show the weaknesses within the American counterintelligence community. These weaknesses not only damage the reputation of the U.S. as a trustworthy ally but threaten the progress Ukraine has made in the past year to limit Russia’s invasion.
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While the U.S. investigates the source of this leak, it must do everything in its power to ensure that Ukraine’s security and the sovereignty of the involved nations remain respected and secure. The U.S. needs to be in constant communication with Ukraine over these leaks to ensure that Russia cannot take advantage of this information. It should also be paramount that the U.S. ensures that the sources of their intelligence remain protected and are not threatened by the leaker. What's more, with the reveal of Ukraine lacking missiles and ammunition for their air defences, Europe and the U.S. must step up and provide these weapons. Not only should this be done to protect Ukraine from the U.S.’s blunder in securing these documents but to reaffirm its commitment to Ukraine and its people.
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Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko – Skylar Young
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