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Turning the Tide
by Janet Singer
Any discussion of the 2022 elections should include the reality that America has, what Simon Rosenberg calls, “a growing, diverse, pro-truth, pro-democracy, anti-MAGA majority.” Nevertheless, gerrymandering and the distribution of voters across the country have given Republicans a structural advantage in the House, Senate, and Electoral College. But most 2022 Senate races will be conducted in states Joe Biden won in 2020, which means that we can win if we turn out the same coalition of Biden voters. That is challenging in any midterm, when turnout is usually lower than in Presidential years, and is particularly difficult if our base and the independent voters who favored Biden feel disappointed and disillusioned.
That’s why it’s so exciting to see the tide turning as we get closer to Election Day. Democrats have made substantial achievements—passing the first gun safety law in nearly 30 years and the most ambitious climate bill in US history, appointing Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, and mounting a pandemic response that has provided Covid vaccines for all who want them and has returned all the jobs lost over the last two years. The Republican party, by contrast, is in disarray–backward-looking, doubling down on unpopular views–abortion bans, voter suppression, opposing gay marriage, maligning law enforcement, even voting against veterans. We need to help voters see all the ways their vote counted last time and that their vote in 2022 will matter too.
These achievements give us a chance to re-engage the disengaged. So let’s turn out the pro-democracy, anti-MAGA majority in all the states Biden won. Let’s spell out the choice we have before us: Democrats who fight for you and help you when you need help vs. a radical extremist minority using vote theft and violence to put the government in charge of your most personal decisions.
Most predictions about the midterms use past elections as a guide to predicting the outcome. But, increasingly, it looks like this midterm will be unlike any others. There is good evidence that Democrats are winning over independent voters and that even those who disapprove of Biden still won’t turn to MAGA Republicans. But, really, none of the predictions matter. When our democracy faces the existential crisis that it does today, we are compelled to act–regardless of our chance of winning. Still, it is easier to feel motivated when there is hope, and I am hopeful that the tide is turning in our favor.
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