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The future of UK Foreign policy strategy
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The brutally changing Russian strategy
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The US releases the 2022 Elie Wiesel Report on atrocities
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Janet Yellen’s global campaign to defund Russia’s war machine
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- Kremlin’s Current Narrative
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"Judgment day" as a response to realized threats to Crimea
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Armed Moldova will not create any threats to Russia
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📣Check our latest issue of the Ukraine Watch Briefing! 🇺🇦
Our newest public newsletter summarises the current developments in Ukraine and brings analyses of the situation in Ukraine and the impacts of the Russian aggression for Europe and the West.
Newest issue is here 👉 https://bit.ly/3uJ7zjG Sign up for both the public and non-public newsletters and outputs here: 👉 europeanvalues.typeform.com/IDHBriefing
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The future of UK Foreign policy strategy |
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Until his resignation, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was extremely proactive and effective in his support for Ukraine, but with his exit from the government, the question of the future of the country's approach to foreign policy remains open. None of Johnson's possible successors has expressed their intentions on the issue, and their campaigning is focusing on other topics at the moment.
The most experienced among them is the current Foreign Minister Liz Truss, but her expertise on the Ukrainian conflict was put to the test already before the invasion when even Sergey Lavrov mocked her lack of knowledge on the subject.Other candidates, such as Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch, have generally stated that Russia must be defeated without articulating further, while Tom Tugendhat has made more controversial statements such as, in May 2018, the need to expel all Russian nationals from the United Kingdom or “banning Russia from British capital markets in May 2018.” At the opposite extreme, former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is suspected of having financial interests too large to take strong action against Russia because his wife has a £400 million stake in a company with a high Russian presence.
It will be crucial for the new British leader to define the foreign policy strategy as soon as possible or it might undermine the efforts made so far and not maintain leadership for long.
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The brutally changing Russian strategy |
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In recent weeks, the attack strategy of the Russian military has increasingly taken on terrorist connotations against the population. Indeed, missile attacks have focused indiscriminately on civilian areas, such as in the city of Vinnytsia in central Ukraine, striking a shopping mall, a dance hall, and a wedding hall. The attack, far from the front lines, killed at least 23 people and is just one of many missile attacks against civilians in recent weeks, determining a clear brutal intent of the Russian military to break Ukrainian resistance at a time of shortage of soldiers.
In addition, according to British intelligence, the Kremlin is responding to the lack of frontline troops in Ukraine by recruiting as military personnel imprisoned people who would be enlisted for the Wagner Private Military Company, the infamous contractor with obvious ties to the Kremlin and which has been accused several times of war crimes. In the same report, British intelligence also claimed that the Russian military is making "small incremental territorial gains in Donetsk oblast" but they consider it highly unlikely that the Kremlin has the resources to launch a new attack aimed at seizing the entire Ukrainian territory. In addition, the death toll in the Russian armed forces is estimated by the Ukrainian government at about 35,000 dead, and by the British government at about 15,000.
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The US releases the 2022 Elie Wiesel Report on atrocities |
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On July 15 the US released a report that encapsulates the past, present, and future of the US Government’s work to anticipate, prevent, and respond to atrocities. The 2022 Elie Wiesel Report, which was submitted to Congress, represents the fourth iteration of the report since the US Congress passed the consequential Elie Wiesel Genocide and Atrocities Prevention Act in 2018. Moreover, the report was accompanied by the first comprehensive strategy to anticipate, prevent and respond to atrocities.
The report highlights several countries of concern, Ukraine is one of them. On March 23, 2022, Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, announced the US government’s assessment of Russia’s responsibility for committing war crimes in Ukraine. After this assessment, the US supported a set of mechanisms to document these atrocities and hold Russia responsible for them.
They include support to the Ukrainian authorities, journalists, and human rights defenders along with international investigative mechanisms, documenting human rights abuse, including atrocities, bolstering the legal enabling environment, and building capacities of legal practitioners to investigate and prosecute these crimes.
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Janet Yellen’s global campaign to defund Russia’s war machine |
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On Sunday Treasury Secretary of the US, Janet Yellen visited Japan where she met with the Japanese leaders and the country’s top economists. The trip intended to persuade the Japanese authorities to create a new global price cap on Russian oil.
After visiting Japan, Yellen flew to Indonesia to gain support for her initiative from other countries too. As Treasury Secretary stated, the US has two objectives: the first is to deprive Russia of oil to weaken its ability to wage a war against Ukraine, while the second is to defend the global economy from the impacts of the war.
The campaign was launched by Janet Yellen in April when she met with the world’s most powerful economic leaders, and it was continued by focusing on the international leaders beyond the US closest allies.
According to Yellen, simply cutting off the export of Russian oil will trigger serious consequences for the West, while depriving the Russian war machine of revenue seemed to be a relevant strategy. As some experts say, if it succeeds, even partly, there is a lot to be gained. It will prevent the US and the rest of the world from immersing in the economic recession, while Russia’s capacity for waging a war will reduce.
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"Judgment day" as a response to realized threats to Crimea |
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The refusal of Ukraine or NATO countries to recognize Crimea as a part of Russia is a systemic threat to the Russian Federation, said Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, reports Interfax. Dmitry Medvedev warned that if the threats of an attack on Crimea from Kyiv are realized, then for everyone there will come a "judgment day" at once, from which it will be difficult to hide, informs Interfax.
NATO has sent multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine as a further part of systemic military aid. The main condition of receiving such kind of ammunition is beating targets on occupied territory exclusively. The received ammunition for the HIMARS MLRS launchers has a range of up to 70 kilometres, informs Suspilne. media. Ukraine's Armed Forces have effectively used multiple rocket launchers and managed to destroy several ammunition dumps all over the occupied Ukrainian territory, reports Atlantic Council.
DW
says that Ukraine's Armed Forces could use HIMARS MLRS for strikes against military objects in Crimea when Ukraine received missiles with a range of up to 300 km for multiple rocket launchers. As Crimea was illegally annexed by Russia it is considered an occupied territory of Ukraine. So, the future attack on the peninsula is an issue of received ammunition. Crimea is supposed to be the most beloved "toy" of Putin which is why the Russian side is threatening to take exact return actions in case of strikes.
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Armed Moldova will not create any threats to Russia |
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Peskov: “Moldova's strengthening of its army does not create risks for Russia, and Chisinau should not see a threat from Russia - it would be better to look for good relations” reports Ria Novosti. "Moldova should not see any threat. This is completely absurd. Probably, someone will compare it with Ukraine. But here any comparisons are inappropriate", Peskov said, informing Ria Novosti.
Interestingly, one month ago the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with NTV TV channel: "Of course, there are clear attempts to make a second Ukraine of Moldova," informs TASS. It is clear that Moldova is located under Russian geopolitical interests and has nearly the same case as Ukraine of asymmetric conflict with Russia. The Guardian reports Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, who said that there were "indications" that Putin wants to extend the land bridge as far as Transnistria, the Moscow-occupied region of Moldova, thereby controlling Ukraine's entire Black Sea coast. Russia maintains using Transnistria as an instrument of pressure against Moldova but what can interfere with Russians announcing a military operation to protect the population of Transnistria from Moldova? That is a rhetorical question.
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European Parliament (EP) Vice President Nicola Beer led an official three-day delegation to Taiwan amid growing ties between the bloc and the Asian democracy. The three main messages Beer delivered during the visit included reiterating the EP’s support for Taiwan’s inclusion in the works of the World Health Assembly, the importance of passing a European Union (EU)-Taiwan Bilateral Investment Agreement, and upgrading the status of EU’s representation in Taiwan. During a speech delivered at the Presidential Office, Beer reasserted that, "only Taiwanese people can decide on the Taiwanese future," explaining that the EP opposes China's "threatening gestures" and attempts to unilaterally change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. This statement is particularly important as the EP Vice President made it shortly after a controversial interview with Jorge Toledo Albiñana, the incoming EU envoy to Beijing, who claimed he backed the "unification" of China and Taiwan. Chinese officials condemned Beer for leading the delegation, calling it a move that "poisons the atmosphere of China-Europe relations."
For the 13th consecutive year, Taiwan retained its top ranking in the U.S. State Department's annual Trafficking in Persons Report. The Asian democracy is one of thirty countries globally which has been ranked in Tier 1. Nevertheless, the authors of the report pointed out that the Taiwanese government's efforts to identify, investigate, and prosecute forced labour on fishing vessels in Taiwan's highly vulnerable Distant Water Fleet remain insufficient. As Taiwan's fisherfolk consists predominantly of migrants from Southeast Asian countries, this finding echoes the concerns expressed by the EU concerning Taiwan's lacking protections for migrant workers. China continued to be ranked as a Tier 3 country, on par with Afghanistan, Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, North Korea, Iran, and Russia. This year's report specifically assesses the negative human rights externalities from China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
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