Last week's events concerning the pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign

THIS WEEK

Opening remarks  

  1. Don’t miss out on INTERACTIVE E-LEARNING
  2. Soviet Joke

Policy & Research  

  1. Hungary’s handshake with Russia
  2. UK towards global relevance on Ukraine crisis 

U.S. Developments  

  1. The stalemate persists in Russia-US negotiations over the Ukraine crisis
  2. The US prepared to sanction Russian elites close to Putin if Russia invades Ukraine

Kremlin’s Current Narrative 

  1. Putin claims the US is trying to drag Russia into the war
  2. Russian deputy Belik claims Ukraine is like a yellow card in football for the USA

Taipei News

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Good Old Soviet Joke

An American dog, a Polish dog and a Soviet dog sit together.

The American dog says, “In my country if you bark long enough, you will be heard and given some meat”. 

The Polish dog replies “What is ‘meat’?” 

The Soviet dog says, “What is ‘bark’?”

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Policy & Research

Hungary’s handshake with Russia

On Tuesday, February 1st, Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban met in Moscow. The Russian president wants to show that he is not alone and not isolated in the current confrontation with the West, while the Hungarian prime minister is preparing for elections in April. Orban emphasized the long-lasting and mutually beneficial relationship between the two countries, and described his visit as a "peace mission", as speaking on behalf of the EU leaders and claiming that none of them wants a conflict. He also validated Putin’s demands as reasonable security guarantees that should be the ground for negotiations. 

About this, he also stated that Russia has no intention of escalating the conflict in Ukraine and that the sanctions that Europe and the US want to impose in the event of an invasion are destined to fail just like those imposed in 2014 following the Crimean war. This is not the first time Viktor Orban is accused of undermining the unity and democratic standards of the European Union, also frustrating its relationship with NATO. From the use of the Russian vaccine, Sputnik V, against the recommendations of the European Medicine Agency, to the signing, in September, of the 15-year gas supply contract with Russian energy company Gazprom, for which he is now calling for an increase in import volumes

UK towards global relevance on Ukraine crisis

For the first time since Brexit, the UK is facing a major foreign policy crisis and finally has a chance to prove its intention not to turn into global irrelevance. For this reason, it is emphasizing its positioning with Russia on Ukraine by threatening sanctions that would affect more individuals and companies close to the Russian government. On Tuesday, February 1st, Boris Johnson visited his counterpart in Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to reinforce this positioning. The Ukraine crisis represents a test for Johnson for a few reasons. On a personal level, he wants to show that domestic issues, such as the ‘partygate’ scandal, do not affect his focus on the Russian crisis, thus demonstrating his statesmanship to sceptics.

On a foreign policy level, he wants to show that the UK has gained agility in this regard after Brexit, despite precedents such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the announcement of the Aukus pact, where it played more minor roles. Ultimately, with the Ukraine crisis, the UK aspires to create an informal military-security alliance with Ukraine to bring it closer to NATO, an idea also favoured by Poland. This would position the UK as the US's number one ally in a situation where Germany is stalled and France is advocating a more independent EU.

U.S. Developments

The stalemate persists in Russia-US negotiations over the Ukraine crisis.

The call that took place on Tuesday between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov over the Ukraine crisis was assessed as " professional and fairly candid". During the phone conversation, Antony Blinken underscored the significance of faltering Russian build-up near the border of Ukraine as a precondition for undertaking serious diplomatic discussion with Russia. From the U.S. part, diplomacy is deemed to be the major solution to the confrontation with Russia. But it is noteworthy that the U.S  is ready to engage in “intensive, substantive, sustained, serious diplomacy “ that would be hinged on reciprocity as well as on consultation with its allies. 

From Russia’s part, as Putin states, there is a significant difference between parties concerning the perception of security concerns. At the same time, the Russian President blames the U.S. for ignoring its fundamental interests but emphasizes Russia's readiness to cope with this crisis with the U.S. if Russia's security concerns are taken into consideration. According to Putin, the invasion of Ukraine is excluded and it is in Russia's interest to contribute to the de-escalation of the crisis by resorting to diplomacy.

The US prepared to sanction Russian elites close to Putin if Russia invades Ukraine.

The U.S. is going to impose sanctions on Vladimir Putin's close associates in case of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to a State Department spokesperson, the main interest of the U.S is to contain Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Diplomacy is deemed to be the preferable way for settling the confrontation with Russia over the Ukrainian crisis, but if Russia decides to attack Ukraine, the U.S. is ready to take any action that would be appropriate for halting this aggression. The sanction package envisioned by the U.S and its allies comprises measures that will deal with Putin's inner circle that is responsible for the decision-making process in Russia and its family members. 

Furthermore, the Russian oligarchs and Vladimir Putin personally might be targeted by the sanction package. In addition, the sanctions imposed in case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be completely different from those adopted in 2014 after the Russian invasion of Crimea as they will bear severe economic consequences for Russia. In particular, the restrictions will deal with the export of high-tech in artificial intelligence from the U.S.  as well as in quantum computing and aerospace sector. Moreover, the DUSA (Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act) act initiated by the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez, and other 39 Senators, refers to the usage of the global dollar financial system as an instrument to avert Russian aggression in Ukraine. More precisely, it aims at hindering Russia's access to the U.S. financial markets and infrastructure which will have a detrimental impact on Russia.

Kremlin's Current Narrative

Putin claims the US is trying to drag Russia into the war

BBC reports that Russia accuses the US of using Ukraine as a tool against Kremlin. During a press conference following talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Putin stated that it seems to him that the United States is not concerned about Ukraine’s security. Putin claimed that the key objective of the US is to restrain Russia's development. In this regard, Putin asserted that Ukraine is just a tool of the US to reach its goal. In addition to this, Putin pointed out that if Ukraine became a NATO member, this could lead to war with Russia. 

Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev accused the US of worsening the situation in Ukraine. Moreover, Patrushev stressed that although “Ukrainians themselves, including officials, are already declaring that there is no threat,” American officials are prepared to fight, providing weapons to every Ukrainian. Patrushev emphasized that Moscow does not want war whereas the US “does not care whether there will be any losses on each side or not.” Furthermore, at the meeting of the UN Security Council, Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, Vasiliy Nebenzya claimed that the attempts of the US are aimed at deteriorating the relationships between Ukraine and Russia. Moreover, Nebenzya also stated that the West's task in its "destructive game" is to prevent the natural brotherly coexistence of Russia and Ukraine and their people. 

Russian deputy Belik claims Ukraine is like a yellow card in football for the USA

RT reports the Russian deputy Belik’s reaction to the earlier words of Putin about the "use" of Ukraine ". Member of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, Dmitry Belik claimed that the states, including the US, are waving “a yellow card” at every occasion to blame Russia for invasion and aggression, threatening Russia with sanctions and restrictive measures the Kremlin has never seen before. Nebenzya stated that Russia is being unfairly punished whereas it is Ukraine that does not comply with the Minsk agreements. 

Furthermore, earlier Russia called the statements about the Russian threat “ridiculous”. RT reports that Moscow has repeatedly indicated that the Russian Federation has no aggressive intentions against Ukraine, but Western media and politicians continue to heat up the situation around the “invasion”. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that “the stir in the Western media around Russian-Ukrainian relations has reached a boiling point — or rather, the extreme stage of dementia.” The Russian Foreign Ministry also blamed Western journalists for attempting to invent “a horror story for an ignorant audience”, and for using manipulation, edited videos, and vague statements. In addition to this, Belik highlighted that the US is rather driven by self-interests to undermine Russia’s power because the US is haunted by Russia’s strength

Taipei News

The U. S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced the decision by the U. S. State Department to approve the possible sale of equipment and services to support the upgrade of the Patriot Air Defense System to Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO). The deal is estimated to be worth US$100 million and is expected to come into effect within one monthThe main contractors would be Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed MartinThe package comprises equipment and services to support participation in the Patriot International Engineering Services Program and Field Surveillance Program for five years.So far it is the second military sale to Taiwan made under the administration of President Joe Biden but the decision to proceed with the deal was made during a 2019 meeting with US officials in the administration of president Donald Trump.

 

The United States committed themselves to support Taiwan's self-defense capabilities in the Taiwain Relations Act and Six Assurances which laid basis for the relations between the USA and Taiwan after Washington established diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China.“The proposed sale will help improve the security of the recipient and assist in maintaining political stability, military balance, economic and progress in the region” a statement from DSCA said. The sale is being approved not long after provocations by Chinas air force in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone in January this year when China flew 39 warplanes close to Pratas Islands and to the edge of the median line, an unofficial border through the Strait between Taiwan and China, saying these were mere training drills.

 

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Kremlin Watch is a strategic program of the European Values Center for Security Policy, which aims to expose and confront instruments of Russian influence and disinformation operations focused against the liberal-democratic system.

For comments. suggestions or media inquiries, please contact the Head of the Kremlin Watch Program Veronika Víchová at veronika.vichova@europeanvalues.cz 

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