14. 02. 2023

The Fidesz government is intensifying its attacks on domestic opposition. Political tensions are renewed on both sides of the Danube. Orbán met President Zelenskyj at the EU summit. Presenting another regular edition of the Orbán Watch Briefing crammed with recent Hungary-related events.

• Fidesz's participation in the EU summit summarized: a ‘Yes’ to humanitarian aid, but ‘No’ applause and arms supplies
• Orbán accuses the opposition of taking foreign funds
• Regular reminder: Orbán's economic failure in numbers

• Endless eastbound connections? Uzbekistan next on the list
  

• Sharp exchanges between Bratislava and Budapest

• It’s a tough job

The closely watched summit of the European Union held on February 9th delivered the expected results, including the meeting between Orbán and Zelenskyj. The President of Ukraine received a warm welcome at the summit, the main topic of which was, among other things, the supply of additional weapons. This was not dissimilar to Zelenskyj’s messaging in a Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Croatia, Austria, Slovenia, Hungary, and Ukraine meeting format, where the aforementioned statesmen met. A handshake took place and Zelenskyj even invited Orbán to Kyiv, where to date only the Hungarian opposition has travelled.

In lieu of travel, Orbán ironically wrote on the published photo of the presidential handshake that, "Hungary continues to stand on the side of peace." Media astutely noted that, when the Ukrainian president took the traditional "family photo", Zelenskyj received a symbolic applause from the EU27. Yet not so from Orbán, whose hands didn’t touch.

In response to Zelensky's requests for armaments, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer together with Orbán announced their governments’ inability to meet them. The Hungarian Prime Minister added that while humanitarian aid to Ukraine should continue, the eastern neighbour should not expect weapons from Hungary in the future. He repeated his calls for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks because, "Lives can only be saved by peace," stating that after Zelensky’s speech, “It is obvious that this war is dragging on and we cannot expect it to end any time soon.” Moreover, he criticized the anti-Russian sanctions, while calling for negotiations. A day later, he gave his take on the Summit. He called for the termination of legal actions against Hungary, because the whole of Europe is “In great danger due to migration,” and “The future of the entire EU lies in border protection.” No further comment was made about negotiations with Ukraine. Well, just the Viktor we know.

Orbán repeatedly attacks the domestic opposition, alleging that they have been "bribed" with dollars to remove him from office. The "Rolling Dollars" case is taking on gigantic proportions in the pro-Orbán public space. This is largely due to Fidesz's campaigning on the matter throughout Hungarian media. Despite being stale, the case has become a go-to tool to Fidesz when slandering opposition, using infographics, and posts on social networks.

This procedure is extremely dangerous. It stems from Orbán's ‘external-enemies’ tactics, where he criticizes the West and the EU for interfering in internal affairs. Fidesz then accuses the opposition of ‘working against Hungary’ when supporting EU sanctions. The template is all too familiar.

Transparency International’s latest report cites Hungary as the most corrupt country in Europe Contrary to Orbán's claims, the survey did not suggest corruption among opposition politicians. Rather it mentions, "A decade of democratic backsliding and systemic deterioration of the rule of law at the hands of the ruling party.” Moreover, that there is, “evidence against political elites on their misuse of both state and EU funds."

The topic of the Hungarian economy is no longer discussed much in the public sphere given the government’s poor performance. A quick glance at the numbers tells why." Inflation hit 25.7% in January, exceeding predictions. When combined with fuel prices’ skyrocketing (+36% due to the termination of the price ceiling), the cost of basic foods (+44% year-on-year), and an infamous base rate (remaining at 13%,), Hungary’s economy ranks among the poorest in Europe.

Orbán's stated goal remains the same single-digit inflation through to December 23. We’ll see about that. Meanwhile, more and more experts in Budapest and abroad acknowledge that the Hungary’s economic challenges are a not just a result of the Russo-Ukrainian war, but more so due to poor economic policies of the Fidesz government.

A special industrial zone will be created next to the Uzbek capital, specifically tailored to the needs of Hungarian companies reports FM Szijjártó after meeting with his counterpart in Tashkent. The decision follows the events when the Hungarian OTP recently acquired Ipoteka Bank, the fifth largest financial institution in Uzbekistan. Further large-scale investments are to be made.

Hungary would likely make territorial demands in southern Slovakia if Russia manages to conquer Ukraine, Slovak Foreign Minister Rastislav Káčer recently stated. He added that, “This topic is already relevant, that is why it is especially important for Slovakia that Putin fails in Ukraine.” Tamás Menczer, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Hungary, responsible for bilateral relations called his statement, “A senseless and unacceptable lie.” Hungary summoned the Slovak ambassador, while Káčer declared that he will not apologize, “For protecting the interests of my country. I consider its territorial integrity, sovereignty and freedom to be the holy grail of our diplomatic efforts.” As Káčer lived in Hungary for several years building friendly ties, he has pointed out that his speech did not criticize the Hungarian people, but Fidesz policies. In short, Orbán is not Hungary. We couldn't agree more.

The incident is another nail in the coffin of Visegrad 4 relations, which are continuously deteriorating. Gergely Gulyás, the Minister of the Prime Minister’s Office summed up the view from Budapest: The situation is not as good as it was a few years ago, but if the elections in Slovakia and Poland are over and the war will be over too, that in itself will improve cooperation in the V4,” he said. Of course, accepting ‘illiberal democracy’ would suit contemporary Budapest just fine.

Given the policies of the Biden Administration, David Pressman’s appointment as U.S.Ambassador to Hungary was perhaps in response to Orbán’s self-proclaimed “illiberalism.” In the past, the pro-government media often criticized Pressman’s agenda. Allegations appeared in Fidesz backing servers that he was "subverting traditional values" in connection to his sexual orientation or is “meddling” in Hungary’s judiciary.” Foreign Minister Szijjártó responded recently by saying that it is, “Completely irrelevant what the U.S or any other ambassador thinks about the politics made in Hungary.” He further added that Hungary, “Wanted an ambassador, not a viceroy or a governor.” Moreover, Szijjártó remarked that Ambassador Pressman will, “Have a very difficult job to improve cooperation.”

Viktor's EU summit in a nutshell.

Thank you.