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Poland and Ukraine stand up against the decision to complete Nord Stream 2
Russia’s New Security Strategy puts more distance between Russia and the West
In rare bipartisan consensus, many US Democrats and Republicans united in opposition to Biden-Merkel NS2 compromise
US-Russia talks on nuclear arms control commence this week
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Stalin loses his favourite pipe. In a few days, Lavrenti calls Stalin: "Have you found your pipe?" "Yes," replies Stalin. "I found it under the sofa." "This is impossible!" exclaims Beria. "Three people have already confessed to this crime!"
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Poland and Ukraine stand up against the decision to complete Nord Stream 2
German and US allowance to complete Nord Stream 2 pipeline was followed by anticipated criticism from Central and Eastern Europe. Countries in the region consider it as a geopolitical project that will destabilize the political situation in the area. Besides, they question how serious Germany is in its firm stance towards aggressive Russian foreign policy. The pipeline project was pursued despite the criticism from the European Parliament, France, Scandinavian countries, the Baltic states, Poland, the US Congress, and many others. This time, the loudest critics were Kyiv and Warsaw. Ukraine fears that Russia will damage Ukrainian gas pipelines and use them as blackmail tools, which means the increased risk of full-scale military aggression by the Kremlin. Besides, Ukraine will lose billions of euros in fees for the transit of Russian gas to Europe and it will need both military and financial assistance to compensate. Poland is also worried that these concessions from the US will encourage Russia to pursue bolder policies in Ukraine and the whole region.
Foreign ministers of Ukraine and Poland published a joint statement where they stated that Nord Stream 2 “has created [a] political, military and energy threat for Ukraine and central Europe while increasing Russia's potential to destabilize the security situation in Europe, perpetuating divisions among NATO and European Union member states”. The Ukrainian parliament´s foreign affairs committee further published a statement calling on the USA, Germany, and the EU to halt the project. Besides, Ukraine has demanded formal talks with the Brussels and Berlin invoking a clause of its agreement with the EU on political association and economic integration. Kyiv challenged the Western powers by citing a legal language of their own which made the proposal particularly interesting.
On the other hand, according to Germany, Nord Stream 2 is purely an economic project. It costs $11 billion (€9.5 billion) and it is already 98 % complete. Washington and Berlin expressed their support to Ukraine and agreed that they will sanction Russia if it tries to use the energy supplies for gaining geopolitical leverage. Besides, Merkel and Biden consent on investment of at least $1 billion (€0.85 billion) in a "Green Fund" to improve the country´s energy independence, Germany promised new investments into Ukraine, and both pledged to ensure that Moscow and Kyiv will extend a gas transit agreement which will end in 2024.
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In rare bipartisan consensus, many US Democrats and Republicans united in opposition to Biden-Merkel NS2 compromise
President Biden’s July 21st agreement with Chancellor Merkel, which allows Nord Stream 2 to be completed without US sanctions against Russia or Germany, was met with harsh bipartisan backlash in Congress.
Democratic lawmakers argue that the pipeline threatens European security, and by approving the project, Biden is appeasing Moscow. Moreover, the US-Germany agreement hinges on defending European nations and levying sanctions against Russia only if Putin steps out of line, a possibility which many Democrats view as extremely likely given the Russian president’s untrustworthiness. Touching on these fears, Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) expressed her skepticism that this plan “will be sufficient when the key player at the table — Russia — refuses to play by the rules.” Among Congressional Democrats, environmental concerns also emerged as a strong counterargument to the construction of the 764-mile offshore gas pipeline. While few (if any) Democrats strongly support the move, some, such as Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) understand Biden’s thinking; Murphy argues it simply isn’t feasible for a project, already 98% complete, to be halted, and jeopardizing US-German relations “would come at an enormous, indefensible cost.”
Although also in opposition to the move, Republican lawmakers center their arguments around slightly differing foci, instead highlighting Biden’s apparent reversal of his harsh stance against Russia, a key emphasis in his campaign for the presidency and a trait Biden highlighted to set him apart from his predecessor, who was often thought to be “soft on Russia.” In addition to pandering to Putin, Republicans contend Biden’s decision demonstrates his lack of commitment to Ukraine’s security and prosperity: “This poor, helpless nation facing down the evil Russian Federation that they described a year ago is no longer, I guess, to them, a victim,” Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) argued.
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US-Russia talks on nuclear arms control commence this week
In the midst of Biden’s decision to dispense with further sanctions against the Kremlin for NS2, Russian and US officials met to discuss arms control on Wednesday, July 28th. While State Department officials dubbed the discussion “substantive and professional,” no breakthroughs resulted from the meeting. In a statement, the US State Department highlighted the intention behind the talks: “This meeting follows up on a commitment made between President Biden and Russian President Putin to have a deliberate and robust dialogue between our two nations that will seek to lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures.”
In January of this year, Biden and Putin agreed to a five-year extension of the New START treaty––the only remaining bilateral arms control measure. Wednesday’s talks represent the first meeting since the leaders pledged to resume arms control talks at the US-Russia summit in Geneva––one of the meeting’s only tangible accomplishments. At the summit, the two leaders also discussed their resolve to explore new agreements that would take into account the sophistication of new weaponry and potentially succeed the New START treaty, after its expiration in 2026.
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Kremlin's Current Narrative
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Russia’s New Security Strategy puts more distance between Russia and the West
Earlier this month Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to approve the country’s new national security strategy. According to Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, the National Security Strategy (NSS) is to be updated every 6 years: the last version was updated in 2015. TASS also reports that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is already working on the updated foreign policy concept based on the benchmarks set by the new NSS.
While the 2015 NSS was more growth-focused, with chapters such as “Economic growth”, “Improving quality of life of Russian citizens” and “Public health”, the 2021 NSS is heavily promoting security and defence in various sectors and protection against “targeting of Russian traditional values” and “Western propaganda” as a major priority. One of the most interesting elements the new NSS identifies information warfare as a separate priority with a few overarching elements.
It identifies tech companies as the enemies of the state, anonymity as a source of crimes and the use of information and communication technologies as a reason for undermining sovereignty and territorial integrity of states.
The document says that “the objective of ensuring information security is the reinforcement of Russian sovereignty in the information space” (Point 56). Point 57 sets out a course of action towards information security provision, which includes:
- ‘’The development of forecasting, identification and dissolution system for threats against information security’’
- ‘’Prevention of the non-constructive information-technical influence on Russian information sources’’
- “Improving the means and methods of ensuring information security through the use of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence technologies and quantum computing”
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Kremlin Watch is a strategic program of the European Values Center for Security Policy, which aims to expose and confront instruments of Russian influence and disinformation operations focused against the liberal-democratic system.
For comments. suggestions or media inquiries, please contact the Head of the Kremlin Watch Program Veronika Víchová at veronika.vichova@europeanvalues.cz
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