A massive army recruitment campaign in Russia |
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- The Kremlin’s plan
- The main instruments of the military service advertisement
- How to respond?
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Russia and Iran Solidify Dynamic Partnerships in Every Sphere |
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- Russian aggression in Ukraine strengthens ties with Iran
- Iran as Russia's main military booster
- What does the Russian-Iranian relationship mean for the Middle East?
- What to do?
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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- The State Duma accused Baltic states of pursuing repressive policy towards the Russian-speaking population
- Kremlin’s Press Secretary justified the invasion of Ukraine by claiming that NATO is a threat to Russia's security
- Russian mass media claim, that Ukrainian soldiers are infected with super-bacteria
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A massive army recruitment campaign in Russia |
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On April 21, several Russian oppositional media reported that the Kremlin intended to encourage at least 400 thousand persons to serve in the army under the contract in 2023. Throughout the month, the Russian authorities started to actively agitate the citizens to join the military service under the contract through social media and public advertisement. However, the enlistment of 400,000 contract soldiers in a year is a very ambitious plan, as before the war, the entire Russian contract army numbered that many.
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The main instruments of the military service advertisement |
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The information that the Russian authorities were planning a large recruitment campaign in 2023, and the figure of 400,000 contract soldiers, first appeared in the Russian local media at the beginning of March and later a similar article was published by Bloomberg. The publications’ sources claimed that the recruitment would be accompanied by a "large-scale information campaign", which was planned to begin in April - along with the start of the spring draft. The campaign was allegedly personally supervised by Dmitry Medvedev, and the regions had already lowered the quotas for the number of recruits.
Since this spring, the Russian authorities, both local and federal, used different methods of promoting military service on all available platforms, both online and offline. As of mid-March 2023, the number of posts with the phrase "contract service" in the Russian-language segment of Telegram social media increased significantly. The Bell was calculated based on TGStat data. At the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, about 7.5 thousand posts about this appeared per month. In March, there were already 13.4 thousand such posts, and in the first two weeks of April alone, almost 14 thousand.
If this trend continues, April will be the month of peak interest in contract service at Telegram during the entire war. Novaya Gazeta Europe recorded a similar surge in the volume of advertising for the service under the contract on VKontakte social media. In total, the publication counted 75,000 such advertisements, and 70% of them appeared in the last two months. The publication illustrated that the campaign was being conducted by local authorities and widely distributed within the accounts of governors, city publics, local media, multifunctional centres, and schools.
Besides, the Russian Ministry of Defense increased the production of propagandistic videos with a call to “serve under contract in the Armed Forces of Russia”. Over the month, there are already five of them in total. Furthermore, agitation continued to appear on the streets of cities. Posters of the corresponding content were noticed in Moscow, Ufa and Saransk. In Astrakhan, buses carry advertisements calling for a contract with the Russian army or to support it with voluntary donations, and Novosibirsk buses to join the Wagner group.
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Russian unprovoked and unjustified invasion continues for more than one year and two months. Their limited territorial gains and the level of losses do not speak for any notable success for the second most powerful army in the world. However, the Kremlin remains determined to maintain the hostilities and on the outskirts of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive needs more soldiers.
As a massive information campaign on serving in the Russian army could potentially help the Kremlin to enlist the additional human power to serve for its brutal intentions, the Ukrainian side should launch its massive information campaign targeting the Russian citizens with serious financial problems to prevent them from enlistment.
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Russia and Iran Solidify Dynamic Partnerships in Every Sphere |
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Russian aggression in Ukraine strengthens ties with Iran |
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The fascinating transformation of Iran's orientation towards Moscow during the bloody conflict in Ukraine brings a new dimension to the dynamics of the two country's relations. Given the historical context, the Iran-Russia rapprochement takes on a special significance. However, at the current juncture, when both countries are facing isolation by the West, the emerging alliance is rooted in a shared determination to resist Western dominance and also in the need to support each other in circumventing economic sanctions.
Russia is looking to Iran as a key partner to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, which is proving to be a win-win solution for the Iranian side. The Iran-Russia bond is strengthening, as can be seen, for example, in the plans to expand the INSTC international transit corridor. This corridor represents a reduction in transit time from India to Europe and has the potential to link Russian ports with the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. It also represents an important link to the wider Central Asia and Georgian ports on the Black Sea. However, the success of completing this ambitious corridor depends on Iranian-Azerbaijani relations, as the western branch of the INSTC passes through Azerbaijani territory.
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Iran as Russia's main military booster |
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Following Putin's visit to Tehran in July 2022, Iran and Russia have come together in a radical and militarised scenario aimed at overturning the liberal system and creating a true multipolar order. In this new order, the concepts of spheres of influence and regionalism are revived. Russia is forming its sphere of influence from its former imperial territories, while Iran is its immediate neighbourhood. Both countries are thus re-encountering their imperial pasts. Although Iran and Russia are becoming ever closer, their alliance should not be permanently solid. In the new Eurasian world order, both sides want to use the relationship to strengthen their bargaining positions on the global stage.
Regarding military cooperation between Iran and Russia, one of the biggest military problems today is Iranian drones. Since 2010, Tehran has used its drones to harass adversaries throughout the Middle East, posing a challenge to allies in the region. However, Iran's drone arsenal has become an even bigger focus of attention after it sent drones to Russia in August 2022 to use in the fight against Ukraine. These drones are now being used by Russia to shoot down Ukrainian military positions, as well as residential buildings, bridges, and playgrounds. Unfortunately, these attacks are accompanied by the loss of human life and the killing of civilians, which is unacceptable.
Russia also entered the Iranian drone market and has since supplied its customers with hundreds of these aircraft, including the Shahed-131 suicide drone and the Mohajer-6, which can carry out both strikes and reconnaissance. NATO nations have responded to this relationship by expanding the list of individuals and companies they are sanctioning in both Iran and Russia. As a result, Iran has also added nearly 20 individuals and entities from the EU and UK to its sanction list after new sanctions were imposed on Iran.
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What does the Russian-Iranian relationship mean for the Middle East? |
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This partnership also provides benefits to the other side. It gives Iran access to advanced military weapons such as helicopters and air defence systems. However, this does not mean that the situation in the Middle East will immediately change dramatically. Russia is now experiencing large losses of equipment and will have to reduce its arms exports. Among other things, to deploy the Russian-supplied Su-35s, for example, Iran will have to train pilots and establish a maintenance system.
The consequences of this cooperation will be felt in the long term. In essence, Iran can reverse engineer, replicate, and mass production. With a well-developed arms industry, Iran can secure a wide range of military equipment. This development is crucial for relations in the region, especially for Israel. After years, Iran now has helped in increasing its capabilities in the field of cyber warfare and Iranian support from Russia could significantly affect the balance of cyber power. Israel's cyber defences have so far prevented major damage, but Tehran is not giving up. Besides, Iran is also increasingly involved in coordinating the anti-Israel activities of terrorist groups in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, signalling the Islamic Republic's growing power and influence in the region.
The Middle East is already one of the biggest players in the global market for war goods. The arrival of advanced Russian fighter jets and other weapons may change the situation. Neighbouring states are likely to buy new weapons, which could break the spirit of reconciliation currently spreading throughout the region. Even the recent diplomatic rapprochement between the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia, which was brokered by China, may not be a long-term solution to the destabilizing factors in the region.
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Like Russia's growing ties with China, Moscow's rapprochement with Tehran should be seen as a long-term development, yet this partnership must be monitored as Iranian drones fill a critical gap in Russia's military capabilities in the war in Ukraine. In addition, the know-how supplied to Iran may worsen the situation in the Middle East and trigger conflict in the region.
It is therefore important to perceive all these risks and Western countries, whether EU or NATO countries, should continue to support Ukraine militarily and invest funds to produce new weapons to send to Ukraine while expanding their sanctions lists. They should also pay close attention to the relations they maintain with countries in the Middle East. If they fail to do so and turn a blind eye, this region may contribute to further potential global conflicts.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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The State Duma accused Baltic states of pursuing repressive policy towards the Russian-speaking population |
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The State Duma of the Russian Federation issued a statement, accusing the governments of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of pursuing repressive policy towards the Russian-speaking population on their territories. According to the statement, the Baltic states encourage Russophobic policy, which includes persecution of Russian-speaking children and journalists, destruction of cultural and memorial heritage and falsification of historical facts. Such policy is also aimed at the total displacement of the Russian language from all spheres of public life, media and the education system.
This statement serves as an attempt to present the Russian government as a protector of the interests of the Russian-speaking minority in the Baltic States and urge them to watch Russian mass media as the true voice of reason. Due to the lack of Russian-speaking media resources in Baltic states, the population that wants to receive information in Russian would likely turn to the press, online publications, radio stations and TV channels financed by the Russian side, thus contributing to the spread of Russian propaganda in the region.
Nonetheless, the younger generation of Russian speakers tends to favour liberal freedoms and endorses EU and NATO membership. For example, according to Marija Golubeva, a member of the Latvian Parliament from 2018 to 2022, recent polls indicated that their political choices have much in common with their Latvian-speaking peers, especially when it comes to socially progressive and green issues.
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Kremlin’s Press Secretary justified the invasion of Ukraine by claiming that NATO is a threat to Russia's security |
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The spokesman of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitri Peskov, stated that Russia is dealing with an aggressive NATO bloc that encroaches on its security. Peskov also emphasized that NATO continues the line of drawing Ukraine into the Alliance, which confirms the correctness of the decision to start a special military operation, based on the interests of the Russian Federation and the need to ensure its security.
The narrative, made by Russian authorities, is aimed to present NATO as an aggressor, that views Russia as an adversary and threatens its security. In addition, such claims are designed to make an impression that the invasion of Ukraine has a broader context, namely, the prevention of NATO's expansion to the borders of the Russian Federation.
In fact, NATO has always been a defensive alliance, whose main purpose is to protect its members. At the 2022 Brussels Summit NATO reaffirmed the commitment, that "NATO does not seek confrontation and poses no threat to Russia". NATO enlargement is not directed against Russia. Every sovereign state has the right to choose mechanisms for guaranteeing its security. This is a fundamental principle of European security, one to which Russia has also subscribed and therefore should respect.
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Russian mass media claim, that Ukrainian soldiers are infected with super-bacteria |
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The article, published in a Russian newspaper, claims, that Ukrainian soldiers are infected with super-bacteria, which are particularly resistant to antibiotics. The infection was caused by poor hygiene and inadequate treatment of soldiers in overcrowded field hospitals. According to the article, the wounded often receive subpar surgical and antibiotic treatment due to the lack of resources and unsterile conditions in war zones.
The Russian propaganda is trying to pass off this narrative as a new phenomenon, which is aimed to reflect poor medical conditions in Ukrainian hospitals as well as the lack of professional skills of Ukrainian doctors.
In fact, antibiotic-resistant bacteria are a global problem, which is observed all over the world, in hospitals of various levels of sterility, and which the WHO has been warning about for many years. Regarding the quality of treatment of Ukrainian soldiers, the president of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine Vitaliy Tsymbalyuk stated, that thanks to the combined efforts of the military and civilian healthcare systems, up to 82% of wounded and sick military personnel return to the service.
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Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko – Skylar Young - Danylo Stonis
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