We Just Keep Winning
by Janet Singer, CGB Political Director
I’m an optimist, but a pragmatic one. As a political junkie, I follow a lot of pundits,* listen to many podcasts,** subscribe to tons of newsletters,** and show up at the well-attended Zoom gatherings of the Resistance. I believe that we have to work hard to win in 2024, but I also believe that the wind is at our backs, especially in terms of winning the presidency and winning back the House.
Why do I believe this?
It used to be that the best indicators of how candidates were doing were national polls, the mood of the country (right track vs. wrong track), and the incumbent President’s job approval rating. Not anymore. In the 2022 midterms, despite the fact that just prior to the election over 70% of voters thought that the country was headed in the wrong direction and over half disapproved of President Biden’s job performance, Democrats held on to the Senate and lost fewer than 10 seats in the House.
In any case, actual election results are better predictors than off-year polls. In 2023 to date, Democrats have outperformed Biden’s margin of victory in special elections in CO, FL, PA, and WI. In August, a special election in Ohio will give us another data point, but we already know that Democrats in Ohio were able to collect over 700,000 signatures to put a pro-choice measure on the ballot for November 2023. At our CGB phone bank last Thursday, the Ohio Democrats ran out of numbers for us to call, because so many groups were phone banking about the August special election.
In which states are our efforts most likely to affect the 2024 election?
The presidential battlefield in 2024 will be the seven states that were decided by fewer than three points each in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Biden won all of these but North Carolina, another reason for optimism. Sabato's Crystal Ball, a leading election forecaster, identifies only four of these battleground states—Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia—as true toss-up states in the Electoral College. Of the electoral votes from the remaining 46 states, it identifies 260 as safely, likely, or leaning Democratic and only 235 as safely, likely, or leaning Republican. If these predictions hold, Democrats will only have to win one of Arizona, Wisconsin or Georgia to win the election, whereas Republicans will need to win three of the four.
Voter turnout in the battleground states was higher in the 2022 election than in other states, largely because of the targeted work in those states and because those voters felt that their votes would make a difference. Turnout levels in Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin were similar to the record-setting midterm levels of 2018, and turnout in the Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania Senate races was higher than those 2018 levels by a whopping 5-8%.
Why are elections so close in these battleground states?
These states score right in the middle nationally on average education levels, the most determinative variable in partisanship. Their electorate is more closely divided than the other states’ between college-educated voters (who are more likely to vote for Democrats) and less-educated voters (who are more likely to support Republicans).
Within the battleground states, which voters can make a difference? Where are our opportunities?
Pro-abortion rights voters: Last year six statewide initiatives passed in favor of maintaining abortion rights, including in the heavily Republican states of Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana. The percentage of voters who believe abortion should be legal has reached record levels and is an especially motivating issue for Democrats and independents.
Independents: The 2022 exit polls showed that over 30 percent of voters were independents, the highest percentage since 1980. The winning party in the last four election cycles was the one that carried political independents. Independents tend to live disproportionately in suburbs, which are now the most diverse socioeconomic areas in our country. With cities increasingly controlled by Democrats because of the high percentage of educated voters, and Republicans dominating in rural areas with large numbers of non-college-educated voters, the suburbs are a key battleground in American politics. How suburban voters vote has been decisive in determining the outcome of the last two presidential elections, and suburban voters tend to vote for the party that they perceive to be less extreme--and that is the Democrats given the MAGA takeover of the GOP.
The disaffected: A majority of voters view both Biden and Trump negatively. In 2020 these voters broke for Biden by 15 points. In a recent poll of this group, Biden leads Trump by 39 points in a straight head-to-head matchup without a third-party option.
Young voters: This group votes overwhelmingly for Democrats. The Democratic data firm Catalist found that in heavily contested states, Gen Z and Millennial voters had an amazing 6% increase in midterm turnout in 2022 over the already record-setting level of 2018. We just have to get them registered and to the polls.
Republicans: Last but not least, we have an opportunity to peel off small but significant numbers of registered Republicans. Recent CNN and NBC polls, as well as results from the 2022 midterms, suggest that a group of Republican voters are winnable in 2024, particularly if Trump is on the ballot. In the most recent governor’s races in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Democrats earned double-digit percentages from Republicans. Similarly, Republicans contributed significant shares to Democratic candidates in the Senate races in Arizona (13%), Pennsylvania (8%), Nevada (7%), and Georgia (6%). In a June CNN poll, 21% of Republicans said that they would not vote for Trump under any circumstances
What does all this mean for us?
There is good reason for optimism and there are real opportunities for activists to ensure Democratic wins in 2024. CGB has new dedicated webpages laying out our strategy and will have upcoming articles focused on the most effective ways to reach these groups of voters.
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*The writings of Simon Rosenberg, Thomas Edsall, and Doug Sosnik all influenced this article.
**CGB-recommended podcasts and newsletters
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