ISSUE 15
14. - 27. 11. 2022
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- Security situation update
- Can Ukraine take away the Lavra from the Moscow church?
- Russia's strategy for destroying Ukraine's critical infrastructure
- Renewing economic life Kherson and Mykolaiv
- Effective work of anti-corruption bodies in Ukraine
- Loopholes in western unity: why have sanctions against Russia not stopped the war?
- Dutch court finds Russia-controlled group guilty of downing MH17
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SECURITY SITUATION UPDATE |
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With no significant advancements in the frontline and following the withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces (RAF) from Kherson, Russia intensified missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian critical infrastructure. On 23 November, Russia fired 67 missiles and 10 drones at Ukrainian energy infrastructure and residential buildings. Ukrainian air defence managed to shoot down 55 missiles and five drones, but the damage caused by the attack was the most significant since October. Emergency blackouts were introduced across the country, leaving at least 11 oblasts without electricity and, subsequently, with severely damaged heating and water supply systems. Mobile communication also remains unstable, especially in the central regions. A Russian missile - presumably a Kh-101 - hit the area near the apartment block in Vyshhorod, near Kyiv. Four buildings, a kindergarten and school were damaged, with seven people killed and about 40 injured. In total, since the beginning of the massive air strike campaign, about 32,000 civilian objects and over 700 critical infrastructure facilities have been damaged in Ukraine, according to the Ministry of the Interior. Since 24 February, Russia has fired at Ukraine more than 4,000 missiles of different types (cruise and aviation), not counting S-300 systems and the like, Ukrainian officials reported.
On the battlefield, due to the operational situation and weather conditions, there have been no major developments registered since the de-occupation of Kherson. A military operation is ongoing on the Kinburn Spit, with no major success for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) reported. Kherson is subjected to daily shelling by RAF, mostly using Grad MLRS. On 24 November alone, 10 people were killed by the shelling. The AFU continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, whereas the RAF intensified offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Bakhmut direction remains the most difficult for the AFU, with the highest number of losses unofficially reported
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Russian political rulers openly admit using the missile strikes as the key “argument” to impose negotiations on the Ukrainian leadership. Russia is actively exploiting the narrative of the stubborn Kyiv officials who keep denying “the peace negotiations” in an apparent attempt to achieve two goals. Firstly, it aims to destabilize the situation in Ukraine internally in the hope that, through suffering and deteriorating living conditions, the Ukrainian nation will call for political leadership to accept a surrender deal. Secondly, the Kremlin plans to undermine the unity of Western countries supporting Ukraine, as the public sentiments in favor of “fast truce” in comparison to long and devastating war will continue to put pressure on the European governments. It is expected that Russia will continue heavy missile attacks weekly, targeting civilian infrastructure, transport communications, mobile connection facilities, and other objects. Russia will increase pressure on Kyiv to accept the annexation of the four regions in addition to Crimea, which will also give Russia a temporary pause to accumulate additional resources and attack again, as the main strategic goal of the operation remains the same: ensuring full control over Ukraine. Since October, Russia has doubled its spending on the war, and now spends at least $10 billion a month. During nine months of the war, Russia spent $82 billion, which was a quarter of its annual budget. Nevertheless, there is no indication that the economic pressure will prevent the Russian government from continuing an attrition war, in which Ukraine still has fewer personnel and material resources.
The most likely scenario remains that Russia will escalate either by increasing its conventional force (supposedly by engaging Belarus’s armed forces), or by use of chemical weapons or other Weapons of mass destruction. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on 20 November that Russian special services are planning false flag attacks on Belarusian critical infrastructure facilities to pressure the Belarusian military to enter the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff, however, added that Ukrainian officials insisted there were no signs of formation of any Belarusian assault groups. Belarus’ unrecognized president Lukashenka remains vague in commenting on the possibility of supporting Russia militarily, blaming the United States for holding Zelenskyy off the talks “in order to trample on the Russian Federation and get closer to China.”
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CAN UKRAINE TAKE AWAY THE LAVRA FROM THE MOSCOW CHURCH? |
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A long series of scandals of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), formerly known as Ukraine Orthodox Church - Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP), continues. Recently metropolitans who supported the Russian invasion were exposed and quickly fled to Russia. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) conducted numerous searches in churches and monasteries. Propaganda literature and several Russian passports were found by SBU. Now the Cabinet of Ministers is considering the expropriation of all lavras of UOC in Ukraine.
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Lavras are large monasteries with special status. There are three UOC Lavras in Ukraine: Kyiv-Pechersk in Kyiv, Pochayiv in Ternopil oblast, and Sviatohirskin Donetsk oblast. All three are de-facto centers of gravity of the so-called "Russian world". Relevant propaganda literature is being distributed from there and many monks have pro-Russian sentiments. During the raid conducted by the SBU, several dozen people with Russian passports, who had been living in hotels on the monastery’s territory for several months under the guise of "pilgrims", were discovered. Similar events occurred in 2014, before the capture of the city of Slovyansk, when Igor Girkin - the leader of Russian militants, stashed weapons and hid militants also on the territory of the Sviatohirsk Lavra. Later in 2022, monks actively cooperated with the invaders during the occupation of the city of Sviatohirsk.
All three lavras are renting their premises from the state on a long-term basis. The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has the authority to terminate these leases. Several deputies of Verkhovna Rada including Oleksiy Goncharenko from the "European Solidarity" party have already initiated the process. But to cancel the lease contract, approval of the Ministry of Culture is required, and that has not yet been granted.
At the beginning of summer, the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) announced its intention to establish its men's monastery on the territory of the so-called "Upper Lavra" (UOC occupies the lower part). The documents for registration were submitted, but registration has not yet been granted.
Despite the war, some Ukrainian officials still support the Russian Orthodox Church (a part of which, from the point of view of canon law the UOC remains). In September, one of the top SBU officers tasked his subordinates to block the transition of parishes from the UOC to the OCU. After this information was leaked to the media, the high-ranking officer was dismissed and the SBU began to more actively follow the activities of the UOC.
The activities of the pro-Russian UOC are way beyond the purely religious sphere and are a matter of national security. The Verkhovna Rada currently has three different draft laws which should allow to ban the UOC. However, according to the Constitution, Ukraine is a secular state. It is forbidden to change the Constitution during martial law. These draft laws can therefore not be adopted.
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RUSSIA'S STRATEGY FOR DESTROYING UKRAINE'S CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE |
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The shelling of Russia on 23 November led to the blackout of all nuclear power plants and the majority of thermal and hydroelectric power plants in Ukraine, as well as power transmission facilities. As a result, the majority of the country's population was left without electricity. Ukrainians got used to mostly scheduled power outages, but now they must adapt to life with sudden and long-lasting blackouts. These significantly affected centralized heating distribution. Kyiv was without a water supply for more than a day. For the first time, new consequences of the disruption of the power system were recorded – long queues at border checkpoints, electric transportation including subways completely stopped in large cities. At present, half of the consumers in Kyiv are without electricity. In the future, it is expected that it will be available a maximum of three hours per day. The total deficit in the power system is more than 30%. The attacks against infrastructure are the visible part. The Russian arsenal of tools for influencing Ukrainian critical infrastructure is much broader and aims to have long-lasting negative effects.
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Russia has launched massive attacks against the Ukrainian energy front. Russians do not hide that the goal is the capitulation of Ukraine. There is not a single unaffected power plant left in the country. Unfortunately, due to the common past within the Soviet Union, the Russians have a detailed knowledge of the energy system of Ukraine.
Mostly a week usually passes between the missile and drone attacks. Russia always assesses the success of strikes and then chooses new targets. During the last two attacks, the Russians tried to disconnect three of Ukraine's nuclear power plants (NPP) - Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Pivdennoukrainska. These three NPPs currently produce about half of all electricity in the country. On 23 November, they finally managed to cut these NPPs from the grid. This led to the most critical situation in Ukraine's energy sector of the entire war. Despite the intervention of the head of the IAEA and the arrival of their mission to all nuclear power plants in Ukraine, according to assessments, new attacks on nuclear power plants are expected. There is a high risk that the NPPs can be directly hit.
The Russians intensified cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure. Since the beginning of the war, more than 1.2 million cyber-attacks have been committed (in 2021 it was 0.9 million). DDoS attacks on the websites of key energy companies and ministries have become more frequent. So far a high level of cyber security in the Ukrainian energy infrastructure helped to minimize the damage. After the first Russian cyberattacks in 2015, cyber security centers were set up in all the main energy companies. The successful detection and protection of networks have increased with every attack. Ukraine gains new and unique experience in countering cyber threats and has a good knowledge of tools used by Russian hackers.
Currently, Ukraine is lagging behind in countering a new wave of Russian disinformation. Information about the protests of Ukrainians against electricity cuts is now being spread en masse. The scheme is very simple. Someone organizes a fictitious protest action of several dozen people, then a video of the action appears in pro-Russian publications in Ukraine, and after that, Russian mass media begin to spread the news with headlines about the mass discontent of Ukrainians. There was such a case in Odesa. This incident was amplified in Russian media. Another informational and psychological operation was launched on social networks and mass media and was connected with an alleged export of Ukrainian “surplus electricity” to EU countries. A lot of people in Ukraine believed that there was actually enough electricity in the country. They blamed the government for lying about the extent of the damage, with the aim to cover “the fact” that they are selling electricity abroad with a high profit. In fact, Ukraine has not been exporting any electricity since 11 October, and all available Ukrainian generation capacity is used for the needs of Ukrainian consumers. Only after an official explanation, this disinformation stopped circulating.
The goal of these campaigns is, to divert the attention of Ukrainians suffering from power outages, from Russian missile strikes, and to increase mistrust of the Ukrainian government. The goal here is thus to push Kyiv towards negotiations and concessions. Ukraine must improve the coordination of strategic communications regarding the energy situation. Conflicting messages from "we need to evacuate the capital" to "the situation is under control" confuse and scare people. This is successfully used by the enemy.
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RENEWING ECONOMIC LIFE KHERSON AND MYKOLAIV |
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Liberated from the Russian invaders, Kherson as well as Mykolaiv were visited by 70 ambassadors and diplomats from 20 countries. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, the foreign delegation accompanied by the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Mykola Tochytskyi included the head of the EU representation in Ukraine, the heads of diplomatic missions of Poland, Tajikistan, Moldova, Georgia, Spain, Denmark, Croatia, Sweden, Armenia, Montenegro, Turkey, Slovenia, the Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, France, and India. Within this visit, the government of Ukraine made a call to international donors and international businesses to invest in renewing life in Kherson.
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The renewal of life in Kherson as well as doing business there has several dimensions. First and foremost, it is related to people's basic needs. Lack of food, healthcare, heating, electricity, and mobile connection forced many locals to leave the region. According to the National Police, out of the 280,000 residents of Kherson, only about 80,000 people remained in the city. This figure is also changing after the Ministry of Reintegration informed that it will support the evacuation of the elderly and those who are willing to be relocated for the winter period from the Kherson region.
Secondly, Ukrainian entrepreneurs already returning to Kherson require not only admiration but state and international support. These companies mostly provide important services, e.g. transportation, communication, and banking services. Large local enterprises are mostly unable to renew their work. Their facilities are often located either in still-occupied parts of the region or in mined areas. Demining of the Kherson region began shortly after the liberation. Only within the first two days, 2,000 explosive devices were defused. As of now, more than 40 hectares of territory have been demined. However, some 8,000 km2 in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions are still subject to demining.
The government of Ukraine approved the first 100 million UAH from the reserve fund for the restoration of Kherson’s infrastructure, hoping that international donors will join. Despite that, the citizens lack concrete information on the governmental plans for reconstruction. There is no information as to the priorities and schedule of reconstruction.
Thirdly, the most affected group of SMEs were farmers from the mentioned regions due to the destroyed logistics resulting from almost 9 months of Russian occupation. Moreover, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions always belonged to the so-called “grain corridor” via the Black Sea.
After Kherson and Mykolaiv region’s liberation, a long and painful process of restoration is due to commence. The upcoming winter makes it harder to continue demining as well as restoring electricity and heating. However, there are no concrete plans from the government and local authorities on how this reconstruction will go, fuelling the frustration of the local population. A clear vision of the restoration plan from both Ministries and local authorities is crucially needed to be tabled. In this process, frank and open dialogue with local people is of key importance.
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EFFECTIVE WORK OF ANTI-CORRUPTION BODIES IN UKRAINE |
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The fight against corruption is one of the requirements for Ukraine's accession to the EU and is a problematic topic for the country's partners, who provide funding to support various areas. In previous years, Ukraine did not demonstrate proper implementation of anti-corruption measures. However, since the beginning of the war, the need for their performance has increased significantly. After the appointment of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO), this body, together with the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU), began to work actively on exposing and preventing corruption crimes.
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Since 2016, Ukraine has significantly increased transparency at both the state and local levels. However, the level of punishment for corruption-related crimes was low all these years. It turned out that it is easy to detect corrupt people, but they are not punished for their actions, and impunity breeds new crimes. In particular, this happened due to delays in the full launch of the work of all anti-corruption bodies, which were created with the help of international partners.
After the appointment of Oleksandr Klymenko who won the competition for this position, as the head of the SAPO, the effectiveness of the joint work of the SAPO and NABU began to increase significantly. In October alone, 48 people were caught committing criminal offenses, investigations were started in 60 new cases, and four indictments against 11 people were sent to court. In particular, several officials of state enterprises and institutions were officially suspected of corruption-related misdemeanours. Such actions are unusual for Ukraine, and they clearly demonstrate the independence of anti-corruption bodies and their disengagement from political figures. This is an important signal to society and international partners that Ukraine is serious about fighting one of the most acute problems that stands in the way of European integration and the country's development, namely corruption.
Despite the results demonstrated by the anti-corruption authorities recently, the practice of conducting court proceedings in absentia due to the departure of suspects abroad is still widespread. Among the recent high-profile cases is an example of the ex-head of the National Bank, Kyrylo Shevchenko, who left the country two days before he was announced a suspect, and is currently on an international wanted list. This is not the first time it has happened, and it is worrying. Firstly, such a timely departure may mean that those involved receive information about the preparation of suspicion notices. Secondly, permission for high-ranking officials to cross the state border if they are under investigation is unacceptable. The state should help the anti-corruption authorities carry out expedited extradition of suspects for fair trials. After all, incomplete court proceedings are not an indicator of a decrease in the level of impunity for corrupt officials. Also, NABU is still working without the head of the bureau, the competition for whose post was announced only in mid-November after half a year of delays. Considering that holding competitions for important positions in Ukraine is still problematic, this is a case that both international partners and the public will closely follow. In the example of SAPO, it can be seen that fair competitions and an independent person in the position are the keys to the effective work of the institution.
Although intensifying the work and improving the efficiency of anti-corruption bodies in Ukraine is obvious, strengthening the anti-corruption infrastructure in Ukraine is still ongoing and requires a lot of effort. Currently, anti-corruption bodies do not always receive sufficient support from the authorities. However, they actively cooperate with civil investigators. The task of Ukraine is to establish comprehensive cooperation between all parties in fighting corruption to achieve better results.
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LOOPHOLES IN WESTERN UNITY: WHY HAVE SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA NOT STOPPED THE WAR? |
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Western sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 were supposed to cripple Russia’s capacity to wage its war against Ukraine. The Russian regime was hoping to crash this plan by deepening the energy crisis. The EU is particularly vulnerable. While it is the second largest importer of oil worldwide, it also used to be the largest buyer of Russian oil before the war. Indeed, it turns out that Russian sanctions are costly for European economy, so some partners try to circumvent them. Since the beginning of the war due to sanctions loopholes, the UK imported in total £230 million of Russian oil that was registered as oil coming from elsewhere. Among the main tactics used to disguise Russian origin of oil tankers are using old tankers, ship-to-ship transfers, blending, questionable insurance, simply turning off GPS trackers, and shipping through countries with poor law enforcement. Impact of sanctions is also limited due to China and India, the main winners of Russia’s aggression and western sanctions.
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Before the full scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia used to be the world’s largest exporter of oil to global markets, according to the International Energy Association. Russian oil is the money engine for the Russian military machine. For example, the Russian invasion of Georgia, as well as of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, coincided with the peak of oil prices and according to some analysts made them possible. Russian sanctions do have an impact on the Russian economy as it is already entering recession, according to a report issued recently by the EU. One of the large shocks should be the embargo on Russian oil to the EU, announced in the sixth sanctions package. Before February 2022, the EU used to be the largest buyer of Russian oil while major Russian oil infrastructure is tightly connected with EU supplies.
At the same time, despite the ongoing war and imposed sanctions, Russia’s projected revenues from oil and gas exports in 2022 will not decrease but increase from $152 in 2021 to $196 billion in 2022. As long as India and China will continue to buy cheap Russian oil, Russia will continue to have high revenues. China and India after the war have become Russia’s top oil export destinations.
One of the proposed solutions to limit Russia’s skyrocketing incomes was imposing of caps on oil price by G7 countries. However, the proposed cap of 65-70 per barrel will have limited impact on Russian revenues. The reason is that the largest customers of Russia are already paying around this price or lower, while the price cap does not include shipping and insurance.
Russia’s brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine is entering its ninth month and the Russian economy is still able to finance it. Russian bombs will continue to kill children and civilians as long as western officials turn a blind eye to where fuel is coming from, as well as to the free riders like China and India. As the Russian oil embargo come into effect at the beginning of December, the least the western countries, especially the UK, can do, is impose strict control of oil shipments and tracking of tankers’ origin.
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DUTCH COURT FINDS RUSSIA-CONTROLLED GROUP GUILTY OF DOWNING MH17 |
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On 17 November, a Dutch court handed down the first verdict in the case of the downing of a Malaysia Airlines flight over east of Ukraine in 2014. 283 passengers and 15 crew members from ten countries died. The court sentenced Igor Girkin (Strelkov), Sergei Dubinsky, and Leonid Kharchenko to life imprisonment. One of the accused, Russian Oleg Pulatov, was acquitted. Those convicted in the MH17 case must pay €16 million in compensation. The court confirmed that the Malaysian Boeing was shot down by a Buk missile, which was transported from Russia to Ukraine and then taken back to Russia’s territory. The court also recognized that the Russian Federation controlled the territory of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) at the time of the aircraft downing. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the verdict in the MH17 case and stressed that it is vital that the culprits of this crime are also in the dock. The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, said: "This is yet another step in the pursuit of truth and justice for the victims and their loved ones." In turn, Australia demands the extradition of convicts. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasized, "we've gone through these legal and court processes, and we call upon Russia to hand over for justice the people involved in this and who've been found to be guilty in absentia." The Kremlin, however, does not recognize the decision of the Dutch court. The Joint Investigation Team is currently continuing an investigation involving members of the team that operated the Buk installation. The Dutch Prosecutor's Service has already announced that it will inform new charges in the spring and the start of another trial
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The two-year trial held in the Netherlands became unprecedented both in terms of the case's complexity and importance for the civilized world. This verdict was a victory for international justice for several reasons. First, 298 families of the victims received the long-awaited result after eight years of investigation. Justice finally prevailed. Second, the first sentence in the Netherlands is a powerful legal argument for other trials. The MH17 case is the subject of consideration in several international courts and arbitrations, such as the European Court of Human Rights. It is important that now other judicial institutions can also refer to the decisions taken in the Hague. Thirdly, it is essential that in addition to the personal conviction of criminals, it was proved that Russia controlled the territory of the so-called "DPR" - both politically and with resources - by supplying weapons, coordinating the military, etc. This fact is strong and convincing for trials against war crimes of the Russian Federation and the creation of an International Tribunal for the Kremlin's top leadership. And finally, the decision of the Dutch court has an important political and informational role for the whole world, especially for those countries that, under the influence of Russian propaganda, still have illusions about the Kremlin's criminal actions against Ukraine and Western states. This verdict confirms that Russia is a terrorist state threat to the international community. It is also a clear signal for Moscow – no amount of lies can help it escape justice. All criminals up the Russian chain of command must be held accountable.
However, this is not the end of the story. Formally, the sentence still needs to enter into legal force. According to the procedure, all parties have the right to appeal, but it is already obvious that the convicts will not come to the Hague. In the absence of an appeal, the verdict will be final. After that, within eight months, the Netherlands will begin paying 16 million euros to the victims' families. The state can return this money from three criminals, but it will be difficult to do as long as they are hiding in Russia. International justice is a complex and lengthy process. However, it is already becoming evident that, sooner or later, the top of the Russian command will be brought to justice.
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CZK: Transparent account
AN: 2300405420/2010
VS: 2022
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