Putin Visits Belarus, Stirring New Concern on the Future of Ukraine War |
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Moldova terminates the spread of disinformation about the war in Ukraine |
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Russian media in Moldova
- Kremlin cries censorship
- What to do?
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"Postal" terrorism against Ukraine and its allies by officials |
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- Strange letters
- Standard modus operandi of terrorists
- How to respond?
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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- The Kremlin propaganda tries to convince the Russians to go to war
- To persuade the Ukrainians that their country can survive only if aligned with Russia, the Kremlin claims that Poland is planning to annex Western Ukraine
- Holodomor was caused by the West; the Russian propaganda keeps insisting
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DON`S MISS OUT: Disinformation Resilience Dialogue: Lessons learned from Central and Eastern Europe |
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Putin Visits Belarus, Stirring New Concern on the Future of Ukraine War |
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Dictators deliberate: Putin visits Belarus for talks with Lukashenko |
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President Vladimir Putin made a visit on Monday to Belarus to strengthen his bond with the country and its president Aleksandr Lukashenko who is his closest regional ally. The meeting between the two Presidents comprised topics such as overcoming Western economic pressure, the formation of a “unified defence space”, and continuing joint military exercises. Putin’s visit to Belarus took place amid the bombardment campaign against Ukraine’s power plants and other crucial infrastructure. Thus, the trip raised certain concerns in Ukraine about the possibility that Belarus might be forced by Russia to intervene in the war.
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Vladimir Putin and Aleksandr Lukashenko have met at least six times since the war began in Ukraine. It is worth noting that most of the meetings between Presidents took place in Russia. Putin’s visit to Belarus on Monday was his first trip to Minsk since 2019. Putin’s visit to Belarus was analysed in different ways. Certain experts state that there is no evidence that Russia has a new strategy of war with Belarus in Ukraine as there are no indications that the Russian forces are forming a strike force in Belarus. As the Institute for the Study of War claims Putin’s visit serves as an information operation to convince Ukrainians and Westerners that Russia may attack Ukraine from Belarus. Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov denied speculations that Belarus might become involved directly in the war. According to him, such speculations were hinged on “totally stupid, groundless fabrications.” However, it is worth noting that when Kremlin denies something, it usually means very little.
Understandably, there are important concerns among Ukrainians that Russia could be preparing a new assault from Belarus to seize Kyiv which is only about 55 miles from the Belarusian border, or disrupting the flow of Western arms and aid from Poland into Ukraine. Ukraine’s concerns are strengthened as Defence ministers from Russia and Belarus signed an unspecified agreement this month to strengthen military ties and Belarus declared last week that it was checking the combat readiness of its troops. The same sequence of events from the Belarusian side had taken place just a few days before Russia invaded Ukraine from its territory. Besides, it is well-known that Russia uses Belarus to train and supply its forces in Ukraine.
As for Lukashenko’s attitude to this issue, he did not mention the possibility of sending Belarusian forces into Ukraine and he has been resisting this step since Russia invaded Ukraine. But it is noteworthy that Lukashenko significantly relies on Putin. The Russian leader helped him crush the massive street protests in Belarus in 2020. He also depends on Russia for financial, security, and fuel assistance to maintain his grip on Belarus. Furthermore, he has recently stated that Belarus is unable to defend its sovereignty and independence without Russia. Such dependence on Russia raises serious questions about if Belarus can resist Putin’s demand for direct involvement of Belarus in the Ukrainian war.
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The West should seriously consider Putin’s trip to Belarus and strengthen its military assistance to Ukraine. The importance of such aid amid Putin’s attempts to force Belarus to get involved in the war was highlighted by Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself. On Monday Zelenskyy urged Western leaders to supply a wide range of weapons systems to his country to end the “Russian aggression”. As he stated a lot depends on the Western partners, in particular, how the war in Ukraine will end: “The more successful our defence forces are, the faster Russian aggression will fail.”
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Moldova terminates the spread of disinformation about the war in Ukraine |
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On the 16th of December, the Commission for Emergency Situations of Moldova suspended the license of six Russian-language TV channels. The mentioned media spread disinformation about the events in Moldova and the Russian-Ukrainian war. The department noted that the decision was made to protect the national information space and to prevent the risk of spreading misinformation. The decision applies to the following channels: Primul în Moldova, RTR Moldova, Accent TV, NTV Moldova, TV6, and Orhei TV.
The licenses were suspended because of the list of individuals and legal entities against whom international sanctions have been applied, as well as numerous conclusions of the Audiovisual Council of Moldova regarding the lack of "correct information in the coverage of national events, as well as the war in Ukraine" on these channels. Any conditions for the possibility of license renewal for pro-Kremlin media are not specified by the Moldovan authorities. Moldovan President Maia Sandu supported the suspension of broadcasting, explaining that maintaining peace and stability in the country is a priority for the authorities. "Protecting the national information space is an important step in preventing destabilization attempts launched by people subject to international sanctions," she mentioned.
That day, the Council of the European Union finally approved the ninth package of sanctions against Russia. In part of "Broadcasting", the EU in order to counter the Russian systematic, international campaign of disinformation and information manipulation initiated the process for suspending the broadcasting of Russian state-control media. This particular package concerns the broadcasting licenses of the list of Russian media as NTV/NTV Mir, Rossiya 1, REN TV, and Pervyi Kanal. But, in line with the Charter of Fundamental Rights, these measures will not prevent those media outlets and their staff from carrying out activities in the EU other than broadcasting, for example, research or interviews.
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Maria Zakharova, the spokeswoman of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation, a country which promulgated yet new “Laws establishing war censorship and prohibiting anti-war statements and calls for sanctions”, responded to the Moldovan steps on radio Komsomolskaya Pravda. She called the shutdown of Russian-language TV channels in Moldova an act of liberal dictatorship and totalitarian censorship.
Zakharova condemned this decision, recalling the right of Moldovan residents to access information, including from various sources. Maria Zakharova also accused Moldova of "oppressing the Russian speakers" by suspending the broadcasting of six pro-Russian TV channels for spreading lies. In her statement on the new Electoral Code in Moldova. She expressed the opinion that it "will lead to a restriction of the rights of the Russian-speaking population of Moldova and will damage bilateral relations with Russia."
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Moldova sent a clear message to Russia that stands for disrespect to any kind of disinformation influence or media subversive activities inside the country. The suspension of broadcasting of media, which has a connection to the Russian government is not an action against freedom of speech or oppressing any national minorities, but that is an action for information security and countering hybrid threats. Interestingly, Moldova adopted broadcasting suspension on the same day as the Council of the European Union adopted the ninth package of sanctions, which also terminated the broadcasting of some Russian media channels. Moldovan internal and external initiatives in the line with the EU could be a good way to improve political dialogue between the parties, which will only speed up the accession to the EU.
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"Postal" terrorism against Ukraine and its allies |
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Simultaneously with missile attacks and fights on the battlefield, Ukraine suffers from the so-called "postal" terrorism. According to Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko, since the end of November, 33 cases of threats, attempted terrorist attacks, and vandalism against Ukrainian diplomatic missions in 17 countries have been recorded. Parcels with the eyes of animals were received either by Ukrainian diplomats, politicians, and business people who actively helped Ukraine. A series of postal attacks began on November 30 from the diplomatic mission of Ukraine in Spain. The letter, addressed to ambassador Serhii Pohoreltsev, detonated in the hands of an embassy employee. Ukraine's ambassador to Spain appeared to blame Russia. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba ordered all of Kyiv's embassies abroad to "urgently" strengthen security and urged Spain to investigate the attack. Then the postal terrorists expanded their geography. The residence of the Ambassador of Ukraine to the Holy See, Andrii Yuras, was vandalized. Bloody packages were found at the embassies of Ukraine in Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Croatia, and Italy, in the consulates general in Naples, Krakow and Brno.
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Standard modus operandi of terrorists |
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The so-called "postal" terrorism has been and remains one of the "favourite" tools in the arsenal of terrorist organizations in different parts of the world and individual states sponsoring terrorism, such as the Russian Federation, Iran, North Korea, etc. Its various forms aim to achieve multiple goals - from the physical destruction of diplomats and damage to diplomatic/consular institutions to psychological pressure, intimidation, and blackmail of both direct objects of attack and society as a whole. Attacks on diplomatic missions protected by international law are a serious crime currently being investigated in several European capitals.
Given the targets of the attacks (mainly Ukrainian diplomatic missions), it can be assumed that this is one of the hybrid war forms of Russia against Ukraine and its allies. In the brutality and primitiveness of the terrorists' actions, experts see the script of the Russian intelligence services FSB and the GRU. Putin's regime is the main suspect because it has repeatedly resorted to dirty "special operations" abroad: murders, sabotage, insurrections, cyberattacks, etc.
It is also possible that such actions are resorted to by Russian-sponsored terrorists, such as the Wagner PMC. The reason for the postal terror campaign is the intimidation of Ukrainian diplomats and pressure on international partners to slow down the supply of weapons and ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For instance, in Spain, in addition to the Ukrainian embassy, the recipients of letters with explosives were the director of the Instalaza company, which manufactures anti-tank grenade launchers, the head of the Spanish government, Pedro Sanchez, the country's Defence Minister Margarita Robles, the Torrejon de Ardos air base and the US Embassy in Spain. Despite this, today, there is no information that in Spain, at the official level, there is a change in policy towards Ukraine or a decrease in the amount of military-technical assistance.
Consequently, the organizers of the attacks did not achieve the apparent goal. All attempts to intimidate Ukrainian diplomats are unsuccessful. "Postal" terrorism will not prevent the diplomatic corps of Ukraine from attaining the objectives assigned to it by the state.
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Law enforcement agencies must prove the connection of terrorists (or its absence) with the Russian special services. For a comprehensive analysis of a series of attacks on diplomatic missions of Ukraine abroad, it is necessary to wait for the results of official investigations in the host countries. In the case of proof of Moscow's involvement, this will become an additional argument that aggravates the punishment of the Putin regime proxies.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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The Kremlin propaganda tries to convince the Russians to go to war |
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After months of an unsuccessful Ukraine invasion that has left tens of thousands of Russian troops dead or wounded, on September 21, Vladimir Putin was forced to announce the first mass mobilization in Russia since World War II. Even though the Kremlin propaganda frequently portrays Russians as people who can endure months of war and hardships for their motherland, at least the 21st-century Russians, fleeing to neighbouring countries to avoid being drafted, do not appear to meet that definition. Many have instead preferred to continue enjoying their lives in Georgia and elsewhere. Now, in a bid to convince those still in Russia to go to war, the propaganda is trying to employ elements of both, fake patriotism and material interest.
A recent propaganda video targets those fleeing the country – the video shows how a well-off man is going to Georgia, while young men from his neighbourhood do not have plans to leave Russia at all. The video also features two women, one of whom comments: “The boys left, the [real] men stayed.” Another propaganda video, trying to attract war veterans to volunteer to go to Ukraine and kill innocent people, tells a story of a middle-aged Russian man who struggles financially and cannot buy an iPhone for his daughter. Interestingly, it seems like even the chief propagandists are not sure whether such efforts will be fruitful.
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To persuade the Ukrainians that their country can survive only if aligned with Russia, the Kremlin claims that Poland is planning to annex Western Ukraine |
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Since the start of the illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russian media, politicians and Internet users have been regularly spreading disinformation about Poland allegedly preparing to annex Western Ukraine. In April, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Sergei Naryshkin said Poland was getting ready to send its troops to Ukraine. Seven months later, Russia’s spy chief repeated the claim, this time even offering a possible scenario – Warsaw is going to hold referendums to ensure the legitimate nature of the planned territorial acquisitions, Naryshkin insisted. Recently, the Kremlin propaganda even named the possible date for the "liberation march" on Kyiv – May 4.
But Poland has been one of the key supporters of Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself, with its airport in Rzeszów becoming the world’s link to Ukraine. Poland is home to well over one million Ukrainian refugees, and it has provided Kyiv with about USD 1.8 billion worth of military assistance. Why then does Russia try to prove the unprovable? The answer may lie in how Putin perceives Ukraine – for him, Ukraine is just an artificial construct that was created by Lenin in 1918. Moscow was the one that granted Ukraine its current borders by seizing land from its neighbours, and in Putin’s thinking, it is now the only power that can ensure the inviolability of these borders.
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Holodomor was caused by the West; the Russian propaganda keeps insisting |
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On December 15, the European Parliament recognized Holodomor, the starvation of millions of Ukrainians in the 1930s under Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, as genocide. In the run-up to passing the resolution on Thursday, the officials in Moscow once again referred to the historical revisionism chapter of the Kremlin’s propaganda handbook, with Ministry of Foreign Affairs speaker Maria Zakharova shamelessly claiming that there was no deliberately caused famine in Ukraine. To a large extent, according to Zakharova, it was exactly the West that promoted the famine in the “Soviet Ukraine and other parts of USSR,” by demanding Moscow to pay with grain in foreign trade operations with them.
The issue of Holodomor was discussed on Russia’s state TV as well. There, on Channel One Russia, talking head Kira Sazonova claimed that Ukraine simply stole the term from the Irish and Bengal famines for purposes of self-promotion – whilst the Holodomor was a man-made famine deliberately caused by Stalin with the aim of removing a perceived Ukrainian threat to the Soviet regime, in Ireland the British state tried to alleviate a massive failure of the food supply, something that Sazanova failed to mention.
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Disinformation Resilience Dialogue: Lessons learned from Central and Eastern Europe |
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European Values Center for Security Policy has created project called Dialogue on Disinformation Resilience: experiences from Central and Eastern Europe. As a part of the project supported by the Erasmus+ EU programme, the participants developed an e-learning for young people under 30, aiming at media literacy and disinformation resilience.
The project presented young people with a unique opportunity to meet decision-makers and create an e-learning that outlines the lessons learned, the best practices and case studies from their countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Germany, Ukraine and Georgia). The aim of the project was to contribute to a greater involvement of young people in democratic life in Europe at different levels, in particular with regard to their political participation and the strengthening of their digital competences and media literacy.
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This newsletter is supported by the European Cultural Foundation
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In collaboration with experts from Information Defense Hub
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Itai Abraham – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
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If you would like to give us feedback or suggestions, please contact Kremlin Watch project coordinator |
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For comments. suggestions or media inquiries, please contact Kremlin Watch analyst |
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