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Cyberattacks on Montenegro
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Russia in need of more troops
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Biden pumps billions into the long war in Ukraine
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"Slow burn." Russia dodges economic collapse but the decline started
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Kremlin's Narratives in Western Societies
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Russian channels disinform about the West's responsibility for inflation in Europe
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Kremlin continues in its strategy of weaponization of energy
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- Russian Propaganda in Ukraine
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The FSB accused a Ukrainian woman of Dugina's death
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Pensioners are being mobilized in Ukraine
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Cyberattacks on Montenegro |
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On Friday, August 26, Montenegro was hit by a large-scale cyber-attack targeting its institutions, putting the entire critical infrastructure at risk, including electricity and water, while power plants have already been switched to manual control. The attack is the second since the Aug. 19 vote of no confidence in the government, and although the culprit has yet to be identified, experts tend to rule out the action of an individual but not a group or a country. The number one suspect, according to Defense Minister Rasko Konjevic, is the Kremlin because it would have both the motive and the means to perpetrate it, given that Montenegro has officially become an enemy of Russia since March with its decision to support EU sanctions.
The attack targeted the Ministry of Finance and several other state agencies, and Konjevic said no one else would want to cause such damage to Montenegro, which is now asking its NATO allies for help in dealing with the aftermath, while also trying to gather enough data to prevent further attacks.
The U.S. Embassy in the country has warned its citizens that “disruptions to the public utility, transportation (including border crossings and airport), and telecommunication sector” will result from the continuing cyber-attacks in Montenegro.
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Russia in need of more troops |
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Russia has had to request 137,000 new troops to be added to the army by the end of the year, reaching the highest level in a decade, to cope with the heavy losses suffered in the six-month war in Ukraine. The order announced by President Vladimir Putin confirms both the difficulties faced by the Russian military and the commitment to drag out the invasion in the long term.
Fear of a domestic backlash will likely limit this call to "volunteers" and not conscripts, but it is unclear how these will be recruited, as the decree posted on the Kremlin's website does not specify either the rationale or methods of recruitment. Russian military expert at the Moscow Higher School of Economics, Vasily Kashin, explains the decision by stating that in modern warfare, if nuclear weapons cannot be employed, it is necessary to deploy larger conventional forces, and if Russia had done so from the beginning of the invasion, the result might be different today.
Russian casualties so far have been estimated at 15-20,000 dead, while the Pentagon has estimated 80,000 dead and wounded, making the war effort for the Kremlin increasingly unsustainable, especially relying solely on volunteers.
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Biden pumps billions into the long war in Ukraine |
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On Ukrainian Independence Day American president Biden announced an unprecedented amount of military support to Ukraine, a package worth almost 3 billion dollars. The announcement is considered a new phase of the US military help, the Biden administration is preparing for the long war that won't end in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the current administration is ready to fill the stock of the Baltic allies who have sent their equipment to help in the fight.
Despite the announcement, equipment such as NASAMS anti-aircraft missile systems or counter-battery radars won't be delivered to Ukraine in the next few months. The support is considered as the long-term solution for the years to come that would strengthen Ukrainian military capabilities in the future.
As for the long-term solution, several senior officials from Pentagon visited GMLRS facilities in Camden recently. The goal is to increase the production of the rockets used for the HIMARS and M270 artillery rocket systems that could be provided to the Ukrainian army. Earlier this year president Biden signed a legislative act, that authorizes the administration to lend and lease military equipment to Ukraine and the Eastern European countries in 2023.
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"Slow burn." Russia dodges economic collapse but the decline started |
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Six months after invading Ukraine, Russia is bogged down in war attrition it did not anticipate but it is having success on another front –it is the oil-dependent economy is in a deep recession but proving far more resilient than expected. The exodus of Western businesses, and wave after wave of punishing Western sanctions targeting Russia’s vital energy exports and its financial system, are having an impact, but not in the way many had expected.
Despite the sanctions, the short-term situation is not clear. Russia increased the export of their gas and oil commodities to China and India and even with a 30 % discount that the Kremlin is providing both countries, the income to the state budget rose to 24%.
Nevertheless, the long-term situation won't make Putin happy. A recent study by Yale University states that the Russian economy was and will be heavily damaged by the sanctions imposed by the Western governments. Moreover, at least a thousand Western companies stopped their business in Russia, and some left the Russian market permanently. The hardships of the Russian economy are admitted by the prime-minister Mishustin, who said that more than 200.000 Russians may face unemployment by the upcoming quarter.
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Russian channels disinform about the West's responsibility for inflation in Europe |
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Gazeta.ru reports the former Czech President Vaclav Klaus, who claimed in an interview for Seznam Zpravy that the West, not Russia, was responsible for soaring inflation and energy prices in the Czech Republic and elsewhere in Europe.
Vaclav Klaus added that prices began to rise long before the start of events in Ukraine. According to him, "shock jumps in prices for energy raw materials supplied by Russia to the EU took place even before February 24." Klaus also noted that the war in Ukraine only added negative factors to the situation. "This arose ourselves, the West, Europe itself. This arose long before February 24, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Russian war became an addition to this, the essence of which is completely different," said Klaus. Klaus warned that if the EU got rid of energy dependence on Russia, the European economy would cease to function.
It is worth mentioning that Klaus is actively spreading pro-Russian narratives in the Czech informational space. For example, several months after the Russian occupation of Crimea former president stated that it is the West, who is to blame for the new Cold War. Recently he wrote an article that was published in one of the biggest media outlets in Czechia, where he was pushing pro-Russian arguments on why Putin started the invasion of Ukraine.
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Kremlin continues in its strategy of weaponization of energy |
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TV Zvezda reports analyst Thibault Spirle, who expressed fears that the previously announced Moscow suspension of the gas pipeline from August 31 to September 2 could last, which would be a "mortal blow" for Europe in an interview to Daily Express. According to Spirle, the European Union has reduced Russia's share in fuel supplies. But he acknowledged that the European Union is still dependent on Russian energy.
As part of his energy war, Vladimir Putin's Kremlin already had the pipeline closed for annual work maintenance for ten days in late July, prompting the EU to step up its filling up of gas storage ahead of winter. Once again, the Kremlin is playing with its energy weaponization strategy to create uncertainty and could keep the pipeline permanently closed, an energy security expert warned.
Earlier it was reported that the price of gas in Europe exceeded up to $2,900 per thousand cubic meters for the first time since March. On Friday, August 19, Gazprom announced that the Nord Stream pipeline would be suspended for three days - from August 31 to September 2.
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The FSB accused a Ukrainian woman of Dugina's death |
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Russian propaganda launched a disinformation campaign intending to accuse Ukraine of terrorism, using the murder of the daughter of the ideologue of "Russian World" Aleksandr Dugin. In particular, the Russian media, referring to the Federal Security Service, reported that "a servicewoman of the "Azov" regiment is guilty of the death of Darya Dugina." Allegedly, the investigators received the documents of a Ukrainian woman who, together with her daughter, "rented an apartment in the same building as Dugina to keep an eye on her." FSB "found" Dugina's killer in two days without providing any evidence.
As reported in Ukraine's National Guard "Azov" regiment, the woman whose documents were published by the Russians in their report on the investigation has no relation to the unit. The death of Aleksandr Dugin's daughter was beneficial to the Kremlin for several reasons. This may be an accusation of terrorism against Ukraine, as well as an attempt to cause a new outburst of hatred towards Ukrainians. In addition, this insinuation is necessary for Russia to divert attention from its criminal activities, mobilize Russian society to participate more actively in the war against Ukraine, and justify the war to a greater degree.
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Pensioners are being mobilized in Ukraine |
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Kremlin propaganda is trying to discredit and disrupt the mobilization measures in Ukraine by spreading fakes and manipulative messages. In particular, the Russian media and social channels citing the ex-head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Mykola Malomuzh, spread information that "pensioners are being mobilized in Ukraine." This is a fake. In fact, answering the question, he said, "in order to prepare a strategic offensive, it is necessary to prepare relevant reserves." It was about the mobilization of reservists with military experience. There was no talk of mobilizing pensioners.
According to the national legislation, citizens aged 18 to 60 can be mobilized during martial law in Ukraine. The retirement age for men in Ukraine is 60 years, subject to the necessary insurance experience. That is, the retirement age and the maximum age of being in reserve are the same. The maximum age of being in reserve is set for people liable for military service. It depends on the military rank: from 60 years for junior and senior officers to 65 years for generals.
By conducting such disinformation, Kremlin is trying to divert the audience's attention from the hidden mobilization in Russia.
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This newsletter is supported by the European Cultural Foundation
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Elita Khmelidze
Eleonora Sobrero
Dmytro Filonenko
in collaboration with experts from Information Defense Hub
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