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Opening remarks
- Help us crush the Russian propaganda machine
- Joke of the week
Policy & Research
- Bittersweet victory for Macron
- The lack of success
U.S. Developments
- The “high possibility” of Putin’s invading Moldova
- Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin on secretive wartime visit to Kyiv
Kremlin’s Current Narrative
- Kremlin: What did the presidential elections in France show?
- Kremlin: The Austrian Foreign Ministry opposed the full accession of Ukraine to the EU
Taipei news
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Help us crush the Russian propaganda machine!
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Bittersweet victory for Macron
On Sunday, Emmanuel Macron managed to secure his re-election for a second term as president of the French Republic, with a seventeen-point lead over his far-right opponent, Marine Le Pen who labelled the result as a "brilliant victory" as it was a record number of votes for a far-right party in the history of French presidential elections. The leader of En Marche came out of Wednesday's presidential debate better prepared and more convincing, however, compared to 2017 he found no reply to his opponent's accusations of being the president of the rich. Even despite clumsy, last-minute attempts to integrate social reforms into his program. On the other hand, Marine Le Pen's agenda did not end up convincing the majority despite her efforts to distance her party, renamed for this purpose as National Rally, from the shadow of her father's Front National party. In the end, her proposals turned out to be too extreme, this in combination with her controversial close ties with the Kremlin, distanced her from electoral victory.
Emmanuel Macron, in his victory speech, promised to heal the rapture in the French electorate. Beyond acknowledging the loss of support compared to 2017 and the increase in abstention, he also significant increase in the number of votes for opposition parties. The promise is to address their frustration to avoid further divisions, not only concerning the far right but also the extreme left, which has already stormed the streets in protest of the election result. Macron had already acknowledged before the elections that an eventual victory would not be the result of a large amount of support for him, but a conscious choice of supporters of other parties, such as that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon to whom Macron has tried to wink in recent days, to prevent Marine Le Pen from coming to power, constituting a sort of "referendum on Europe, ecology and secularism."
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The lack of success
The latest military failures are mounting Russian frustration with the situation created by the war and those who support Putin are beginning to question their own country's capabilities. Now in the third month of the war after the unsuccessful first phase, where an attempt to take over Kyiv turned into a series of war crimes, the new phase shifts focus on the Donbas region. So far this too has failed to bring concrete results for the Russians, with Mariupol still under siege and the problems on the Moskva cruiser leading to the outburst of TV host Vladimir Soloviev on live national TV and oligarch Oleg Tinkov on Twitter.
Moreover, after Vladimir Putin ordered his minister of defence Sergei Shoigu, not to attack the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, where both Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have been taking refuge since the beginning of the war, the Russian army proceeded with the assault anyway. This, in addition to Putin's televised announcement that Russia had successfully conquered Mariupol while Ukrainian authorities still hold out in the city, could result in a stress test for the resilience of the Russian government as general apathy takes over in both Russia and the West. As the costs of the war rise, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Kremlin regime to justify it and keep critics calm, turning the situation into an existential conflict that does not contemplate retreat.
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The “high possibility” of Putin’s invading Moldova
On Sunday, the US and Ukrainian officials discussed Russia's possible invasion of Moldova. The international discussion about the expansion of Russia's military aggression on the territory of Moldova was sparked after Rustam Minnekayev’s announcement, who is the deputy commander of Russia's central military district. According to his declaration, Russia aims at taking full control of the Donbas region and the southern part of Ukraine which would open the way for Russia toward Transnistria. Transnistria is the pro-Russian breakaway region in Moldova, which borders the southwestern part of Ukraine. Russia has had around 2,000 soldiers in the region since 1992. One part of the troops is engaged in the peacekeeping mission having a mandate to be on the Moldovan soil, while another part of the troops belongs to the Operative Group of Russian troops (OGRT) which is responsible for protecting the ammunition stocks and is deemed illegal by Moldova and the West.
It is not clear if Minnekayev’s declaration represents the Kremlin’s official line, but it caused reverberations in Moldova. The Moldovan Foreign Ministry expressed its “deep concern” regarding Minnekayev’s statement and called on Russia to respect Moldova’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. According to the experts, Russia can use the same justification to launch the war against Moldova, as happened in the case of Ukraine. As they claim, the invasion of Moldova would open the back door for Russia in southwest Ukraine to encircle Kyiv. In case of a Russian invasion, Moldova will be in a precarious situation, as the country is not a member of NATO and thus, it won't get security guarantees from the organization. But as US deputy national security adviser, Jon Finer stated, the US will be flexible in terms of adjusting its assistance and approaches to Russia’s evolving war strategy.
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Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin on secretive wartime visit to Kyiv
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met on Sunday with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian high officials, such as Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, and Interior minister Denys Monastrysky in Kyiv. The trip, which was the highest-level American visit since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, aimed at demonstrating the US support for Ukraine and its defence. The meeting between the high officials exceeded 90 minutes the time that was allotted to it and lasted for three hours. During the trip, the American high officials conveyed multiple messages to their Ukrainian counterparts, dealing with additional US security assistance, increased US training for the Ukrainian troops, and the return of US diplomats to Ukraine.
In particular, the US is going to provide Ukraine with $165 million for purchasing ammunition and another $322 million to purchase weapons from defence firms. Overall, the Biden administration aims to provide Ukraine and 15 other countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in the Balkans with more than $713 million in foreign military financing. Furthermore, following the visit to Kyiv, the White House appointed the new US ambassador to Ukraine, veteran diplomat, Bridget Brink, who had served previously as the US ambassador to Uzbekistan, Slovakia and Georgia. Furthermore, the visit took place amid the ongoing artillery training of the first tranche of 50 Ukrainian soldiers who will complete the training soon outside Ukraine and will be replaced by another tranche of about 50 soldiers. Besides, another crucial part of the visit deals with the American diplomats' announcement, according to which the US is interested in "seeing Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine".
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Kremlin's Current Narrative
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Kremlin: What did the presidential elections in France show?
Kremlin cited the former Vice-President of the Committee on European Affairs of the Senate of France, Yves Pozzo di Borgo and claimed that the peculiarity of the most recent elections is that both candidates did not find support among the majority of the country's population. According to Russia, Emmanuel Macron is unacceptable to that part of the electorate that is dissatisfied with his rule for the past five years and sees him as a conductor of the interests of the rich. As for Marine Le Pen, Moscow asserted that despite all the efforts she made to get rid of the radical trail inherited from the former leader of the party, her father Jean-Marie, many voters continue to rank Marine Le Pen as "far-right", which, in general, Russia claims, is not true. Russia stressed that the current opponents actively used this image to denigrate it in the eyes of the French. “So the fundamental question of the election was which of the finalists caused more rejection,” added Kremlin.
Moreover, as the elections finished, Kremlin claimed that the last presidential elections in France exposed an acute and common European problem - a divided society. Russia stressed that although Macron won receiving a second mandate for a new five-year term, the French president had already practically squandered the much-needed credit of public trust even before the official inauguration.
“In addition to this, according to Russia, the LDPR faction claimed that they “believe that by 2027, thanks to Macron, France will be “cleansed” so much that there will be no native French left in it.” To conclude, based on Moscow, “the party stated that already now, every fifth citizen of France is an immigrant or a descendant of an immigrant, avoid a right-wing victory in this country in five years."
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Kremlin: The Austrian Foreign Ministry opposed the full accession of Ukraine to the EU
On February 28, Kyiv represented by President Volodymyr Zelensky, applied for Ukraine's membership in the EU, a day later the European Parliament approved the status of a candidate country. Later, in April, Zelensky received from the head of the EC Ursula von der Leyen a questionnaire for preparation for joining the EU, the first part of which the administration of the Ukrainian leader had already filled out and sent to Brussels.
The biggest fear for Russia is politically stable Ukraine joining the European Union. Thus, Kremlin does not lose any opportunity to oppose the idea of Ukraine being part of Europe. For instance, Kremlin referred to Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg, who according to Russia, opposed Ukraine's full membership in the European Union. Russia claimed that the head of the Austrian Foreign Ministry urged to find another way to establish relations between Kyiv and Brussels, noting the need for greater flexibility in this matter and the search for new models of membership of a country in the EU.
“The experience of recent years with Montenegro and Macedonia shows that the entry into the EU occurs only through NATO”, Medvedev wrote, “and the US commanders in the alliance,” added Medvedev. "How to join the EU without NATO membership? Without the consent of the senior partner and entering the main ... alliance. No response. Today, it turns out, there is no way," said the deputy head of the Security Council. Moreover, Russia cited Ukraine’s response stating the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expressed disappointment with the speech of Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg who said that Kyiv should find another model of cooperation with the European Union instead of full membership.
According to Kremlin, Press Secretary Oleg Nikolenko asserted that Ukraine "considers them (Schallenberg's words) strategically short-sighted and not in the interests of a united Europe.” Furthermore, Kremlin said that Ukraine insists on immediate accession to the EU, but not all European politicians share this view. Russia referred to Schallenberg who according to Russia, believes that in relations with Kyiv there should be more flexibility and other options for close cooperation. Moreover, Russia stated that Schallenberg also recalled the Western Balkans, which overcame a much longer way to obtain the status of a candidate for EU membership.
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During this year’s Han Kuang (漢光演習) exercise, which includes table-top war games and live-fire drills, Taiwan’s armed forces seek to incorporate lessons from the defence of Ukraine. "Considering the lessons of Russia's war in Ukraine, we will continue to enhance our asymmetrical warfare, cognitive warfare, electronic and information warfare, and increase the use of reservists," said Major-General Lin Wen-huang (林文皇), head of the Taiwanese defence ministry's Joint Warfare Department. Aimed at testing the armed forces' interoperability and capability to fend off a Chinese invasion, war games will be held on May 16-20 and live-fire drills on July 25-29.
Following the recently concluded inaugural parliamentary delegation from Sweden, Members of Riksdag proposed a motion to have the country’s office in Taipei be transformed into a “House of Sweden.” According to Remus Chen (陳立國), head of the Department of European Affairs at Taiwan’s foreign ministry, the new name—shared by the building housing the Swedish mission to Washington, DC—would symbolize an expanded range of diplomatic work, with the office managing more than just economic and trade issues. “By changing the name to the House of Sweden, we hope to underscore that Taiwan should be seen as a sovereign nation and not a province of China,” said conservative Swedish lawmaker Markus Wiechel.
According to Kremlin, Press Secretary Oleg Nikolenko asserted that Ukraine "considers them (Schallenberg's words) strategically short-sighted and not in the interests of a united Europe.” Furthermore, Kremlin said that Ukraine insists on immediate accession to the EU, but not all European politicians share this view. Russia referred to Schallenberg who according to Russia, believes that in relations with Kyiv there should be more flexibility and other options for close cooperation. Moreover, Russia stated that Schallenberg also recalled the Western Balkans, which overcame a much longer way to obtain the status of a candidate for EU membership.
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Authors:
Elita Khmelidze
Eleonora Sobrero
Aidana Zhakypbekova
Marcin Jerzewski
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Kremlin Watch is a strategic program of the European Values Center for Security Policy, which aims to expose and confront instruments of Russian influence and disinformation operations focused against the liberal-democratic system.
For comments. suggestions or media inquiries, please contact the Head of the Kremlin Watch Program Veronika Víchová at veronika.vichova@europeanvalues.cz
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