The UN Secretary-General dissolved the mission to investigate the terrorist attack in Olenivka |
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- Dissolvement of the Olenivka mission
- Massacre of the Ukrainian prisoners of war
- How to respond?
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Russia’s Wagner group ramping up operations outside of Ukraine, US warns |
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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- Russia’s Ministry of Defense lies about killing 600 Ukrainian soldiers in a rocket attack
- Kadyrov says Ukraine is so corrupt that only 15% of the Western arms shipments will reach the frontlines
- Russian TV show debate about using nuclear weapons against the West
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The UN Secretary-General dissolved the mission to investigate the terrorist attack in Olenivka |
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Dissolvement of the Olenivka mission |
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On the 5th of January, UN Secretary-General António Guterres disbanded the fact-finding mission of the July attack on the Olenivska colony, which killed Ukrainian prisoners of war. This was stated by the spokesman of the Secretary-General, Stefan Dujarric, Interfax-Ukraine reports. The organization explained that they could not deploy the mission due to the lack of security guarantees for the participants of the investigation. The spokesman noted that despite the agreement on the mission from Russia and Ukraine, the UN believes that they did not receive the necessary security guarantees.
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Massacre of the Ukrainian prisoners of war |
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Russian propagandists said on July 29, 2022, that the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly struck a colony in the village of Olenivka, Donetsk region, where Ukrainian prisoners are held, with HIMARS rocket launchers. The occupiers said that the shelling might have happened because the prisoners "began to testify." Ukrainian intelligence said that the explosions in Olenivka were carried out by mercenaries of the "Wagner" (League) PMC, allegedly on the personal command of the nominal owner Yevgeny Prigozhin. According to intelligence, the organization and implementation of the explosion were not coordinated with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
The mission to investigate the terrorist attack in Olenivka was created by the UN at the end of August 2022. At the time, the organization said that the team could not start work yet because of the danger, but on September 8, 2022, the UN Deputy Secretary-General said that the mission should arrive in occupied Olenivka "in the next few days." According to the Ukrainian and Russian authorities, 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed and another 75 to 130 were injured as a result of the terrorist attack. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that the shelling of the colony was deliberately carried out by the Russian military. "The Russian occupiers thus pursued their criminal goals - to accuse Ukraine of committing "war crimes", as well as to hide the torture of prisoners and executions, which they carried out there on the orders of the occupation administration and the command of the Soviet Union in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region." the message reads. Nevertheless, the Head of the President of Ukraine Office Andriy Yermak is demanding to bring the issue of the terrorist attack in Olenivka to the international level.
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The Russian attack on prisoners in Olenivka is a cruel and unjustified step that violates the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War. Ukraine must continue to work on the internationalization of this crime to obtain the necessary leverage on Russia in the context of the return of its captives safe and sound. Ignoring or tolerating outright terrorist attacks against humanity can lead to the fact that State Sponsors of Terrorism and Russia will continue to bring more chaos to the system of international relations. Furthermore, The United Nations should make Russia allow to conduct an investigation into the tragedy and demonstrate that the organization is really capable to strengthen international security not in words but in deeds.
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Russia’s Wagner group ramping up operations outside of Ukraine, US warns |
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The US intelligence is tracking the Wagner group |
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As Moscow continues to use the Wagner group to launch influence operations in Africa and Europe, US high officials are tracking the movements of the Russian military group outside of Ukraine. Last month the Biden administration obtained intelligence information according to which Russia is relying on the Wagner group in Ukraine to recruit prisoners and launch an offensive. Besides, US officials are gathering intelligence related to the group’s activities in countries such as the Central African Republic, Mali, and Serbia. Wagner is used in these countries to fight anti-Putin sentiment and defend government mining interests.
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Russia’s increased reliance on the Wagner group |
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The Wagner group which is owned by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin operates in dozens of countries and works with governments on military and political projects. The US has long tracked the group’s activities across the world. The Biden administration is especially concerned about countries where the US and its allies hold businesses and diplomatic relations. In this regard, two countries such as the Central African Republic and Serbia are highly important. The Wagner group has for years operated in both countries and this is an unprecedented case of how Russia tries to build its influence in these countries which hasn’t existed since the Cold War. It is worth noting that the Wagner group usually operates in countries with weak governance, ongoing security challenges, and enriched natural resources.
Moreover, the organization’s activities in Africa cover various countries, including Madagascar and Libya. For instance, in the capital of the Central African Republic, the group set up an office called “Russian House” in 2018, which also serves as a cultural center. As for Serbia, Wagner has positioned people in Belgrade and announced the start of operations in Serbia at the beginning of December. Since then, it has launched influence operations to counter “activity against the Putin regime by elements of the Russian diaspora.” The US government is concerned about the extent to which the Wagner group is interfering in sovereign countries’ internal politics, violating human rights, and robbing them of mineral wealth. Furthermore, its harsh counterterrorism tactics are worsening the situation by creating more opportunities for extremist exploitation. Prigozhin and Wagner have been under US sanctions for years but the US has recently taken additional steps to control Wagner’s access to weapons.
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The additional export controls on Wagner, which were implemented Biden administration, made it more difficult for the group to access any equipment with US technology. But despite these sanctions, Wagner has looked for partners across the world to supply tools to support its operations. This still raises questions about the adoption of more robust measures not only by the Biden administration but its allies and partners to counter the spanning the group activities across the world. Especially, it is important to support countries with fragile democracies and security challenges in tackling these problems to weaken the opportunity for Russia to offer the Wagner group as a solution to the security challenges in such countries. Besides, it is crucial to fight Russian propaganda which creates fertile ground for the Wagner group to permeate the countries.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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Russia’s Ministry of Defense lies about killing 600 Ukrainian soldiers in a rocket attack |
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On January 8, Russia’s Ministry of Defense (Minoborony) “spokesperson Igor Konashenkov announced that the Russian army had successfully carried out a rocket attack in Kramatorsk, targeting two buildings, which allegedly housed more than 1,300 Ukrainian troops. Without providing any evidence, Konashenkov claimed that as a result of the shelling, “more than 600” Ukrainian soldiers lost their lives. Minoborony spokesperson further noted that this was a retaliatory response to the January 1st HIMARS attack on occupation forces in Makiivka, during which Ukraine managed to eliminate at least 89 Russian troops, an operation conducting of which became possible due to massive use of unauthorized mobile phone use by the Russian soldiers.
While no doubts remain, after Russia’s acknowledgment that Ukraine indeed managed to kill a large number of Russian soldiers during the January 1 attack, Russia's claim that just days later it had killed 600, sounded unconvincing. But those reporting from the ground in Ukraine have documented what has happened in Kramatorsk. Journalists from Reuters, BBC, and other media outlets have all personally seen the spot, concluding that there were no signs of any casualties after Russia's claims of a revenge attack. Though the explosions did happen close to the two college dormitories mentioned by Koneshenkov, none of them appeared to have been directly hit or seriously damaged.
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Kadyrov says Ukraine is so corrupt that only 15% of the Western arms shipments will reach the frontlines |
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On January 8, Chechnya’s leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that only 15% of Western arms shipments to Ukraine will reach the trenches due to corruption. This is not the first time Russian propaganda has blamed Ukraine for being corrupt. Since the start of Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Western arms deliveries to Kyiv, as well as their allegedly unsuccessful deployment on the battlefield by the Ukrainian forces have been one of Russian propaganda's favorite topics. On different occasions, the propaganda falsely claimed that the Ukrainian military sold French self-propelled CAESAR howitzers, American HIMARS systems, as well as anti-aircraft Stinger missile systems on the black market. The state propaganda also claims, without providing any evidence, to have destroyed at least 27 HIMARS systems on the battlefield, although Ukraine has not received that many systems at all.
It is noteworthy, however, that differing from Kadyrov, who has downplayed NATO assistance, other Russian officials as well as pundits see the arms shipments to Ukraine as a serious military threat to Russia. In a recent TV show, the Kremlin propaganda mouthpiece Olga Skabeyeva seemed concerned that the West is now considering arming Ukraine with main battle tanks, something that, according to her, was unimaginable months ago. In another episode of the show, Sergey Makarov admitted that the Ukrainian army is now equal in strength to the Russian army.
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Russian TV show debate about using nuclear weapons against the West |
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During a recent TV show on Russia’s Channel One, the country’s top propagandist Vladimir Solovyov discussed the possibility and necessity of resuming nuclear testing and conducting preventative nuclear strikes across Europe. According to Solovyov, Russia has the right to destroy "Polish troops fighting against the Russians in Ukraine" not only on the battlefield but also "when they are marching towards Ukraine from Poland". But Solovyov and other participants of the show were contradicted by retiredLieutenant-General Evgeny Buzhinsky, who made it clear that “limited nuclear war is an illusion” and that “it would be a global catastrophe with mutual destruction”.
The Kremlin propaganda long maintained that the nuclear threat is a myth invented by the Americans and the Brits and that Russia did not give any reason for such accusations. This was stated earlier by Maria Zakharova in her Facebook post where she insisted that London was artificially sowing anxiety and fear by pinning the blame on Russia for engaging in nuclear blackmail. Though Russian officials consistently deny their involvement in nuclear blackmail, it was Putin, who warned about a possible nuclear confrontation with the West, putting Russia’s nuclear arsenal on high alert the day after the invasion.
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Elita Khmelidze – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
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