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Consider Monday results a step in the right direction gaining 30* overall and picking up 16.30* on a 2-1 BEST BET performance. Tar Heel play went in the wrong direction following what I consider a dirty play by Virginia player coming underneath Johnson going up to catch a pass then landing on the foot of UVA player rolling his ankle. Tar Heels had 55 points when that incident occurred and a 7 point lead, and ended the game with 61 points in an 8 point defeat. Toughest part of that play was that there not even a foul called, then UVA rolled to the other end for a layup... a player in the air must be allowed the ability to land safely on the floor.
NBA BEST BET plays, on a positive note, were able to get right back on the winning train by cashing with the Pacers in their home win against the Hornets. Since the beginning of the year, NBA BB plays stand at 31-10-1.
Was discussing betting management and philosophy with a client late last week and will post here an excerpt of that conversation as it applies on how much to bet on the plays.
Here are my thoughts about managing a bankroll... the ultimate goal is to never deplete it and always bet to maintain viability that I have funds to place the next bet as needed.
With that in mind, as a general rule I suggest that each 5* of action on the card be bet with 1% of the bankroll. Thus, for the BEST BET plays in the neighborhood of 20* would be bet at around 4% of in the case of a 1000 bankroll, $40. Now, for each sport I would adjust the amount of each unit based on the current performance of that sport. For example, with the NBA scorching hot I have at this point significantly increased the base amount of each 1* due the winning patterns and likewise with NHL, I have significantly decreased the amount of each 1* due to the fact they are not winning.
Bet more when you are winning and bet less when you are losing... I have found most people bet the exact opposite with a tendency to risk more when they are losing in an attempt to recover losses. I believe that strategy is the quickest way to deplete a bankroll the fastest.
CONSISTENCY is the next most important aspect. Once you establish how you are going to play and wager then you must have the discipline to maintain those principles throughout the entire process... if you are constantly making drastic changes to the wager amount you make then you take away to advantages of managing the bankroll.
More specifically for now... with a $1000 bankroll right now, I would wager $38 on a 19* BEST BET in college basketball and for the NBA I would increase that amount by 50% and wager 57% and in the NHL I would suggest that amount be decreased by 67% and be $13.
For each 1* at the current time with a $1000 bankroll that would be $2 for college, $3 for the NBA, and around .67 cents in the NHL.
The final aspect to consider is your TOLERANCE LEVEL for volatility... basically, how much can you stomach the ups and downs and the increased possibility that you may lose your entire bankroll more quickly with higher wagers. The examples I have given you above would be on a TOLERANCE LEVEL of 2 on a scale of 1 to 4. For a TOLERANCE LEVEL of 1 I would decrease the wager amount per 1* by 50% and for each increase in TOLERANCE LEVEL I would increase the amount by 50%... a TOLERANCE LEVEL of 4 I would increase the betting amounts by a full 100% from a TOLERANCE LEVEL of 2... basically, double everything.
Finding out what you are most comfortable with could take a bit of tweaking, but in the end the goal should be to always have the ability to step up and make the next wager. While you may consider your bankroll of $1000 at the present time, but would consider it maybe $2000 or $2500 over the course of an entire calendar year, then perhaps you could adjust the wager amounts accordingly.
I hope this helped out some, but as always ask if you have any further questions regarding wagering. I strongly believe that how you bet is just as important as what you bet... at the end of the day wise betting could make the difference between winning and losing.
Seeking to build on the momentum to the start of the week and hitting a college BEST BET play is the most principle thought on my mind going into Tuesday night.
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