30. 09. 2022

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• Policy & Research

1. Protests against the mobilization in Russia

2. Is India slowly changing course?

• U.S. Developments

1. Biden warns the UN: Putin’s attempt to ‘extinguish Ukraine should “make your blood run cold”

2. Ukraine aid faces tougher crowd If Republicans take over

• Russian Propaganda in Ukraine

1. The so-called "right to self-determination"

2. Russian statistical manipulations

Russian war in Ukraine affected the whole Europe. How should the West react to this unprecedented act of aggression by the member of the UN Security Council? Is the free world doing enough to stop Russia, or can more be done? In the newest episode we discussed these questions with Paul Massaro, the senior advisor for the United States to Helsinki Commission.

On Wednesday, September 21, President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization in an attempt to change the course of the war in Ukraine, however, sparking domestic dissent. Following the announcement, several highly attended protests took place, to which the Kremlin responded by arresting thousands of protesters across Russia, including 798 on Saturday alone, including minors according to OVD-Info.

The Defense Ministry reportedly called 300,000 people to active duty, causing a rush to leave Russia and a spike in internet searches for self-harm to avoid the call-up since enlistment criteria were not specified and most men between the ages of 18 and 65 could be considered reservists. In addition, on Saturday, September 24, the Kremlin passed a law punishing desertion and voluntary surrender with sentences of up to 10 years in prison, while facilitating the citizenship process for foreign fighters who will join the Russian military for at least one year.

Putin's supporters are also questioning the decision to mobilize the population, with the Kremlin quietly replacing the deputy minister in charge of logistics, General Dmitry Bulgakov, in a rare move without providing any details on the reasons, potentially demonstrating further internal dissension and splits.

In response to the mobilization, Ukrainian President Zelensky promised each defecting Russian soldier to be treated as a prisoner of war under international humanitarian law and not to disclose the circumstances of the surrender. To this end, a hotline named “I Want to Live” has been set up and it is already receiving calls from Russians asking how to surrender, according to the Ukrainian government.

The exodus from Russia of those who could afford it has taken most of them to Georgia and Turkey, while many are also trying to reach the European Union, yet many European countries, including Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and the Czech Republic, have closed their borders to Russians referring to national security concerns.

After months of ambiguous neutral positioning toward the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finally changed strategy and condemned the war, referring to the need for Putin to seek peace. India's change could be traced to Russia's recent tendency to move dangerously closer to China, which poses a long-term threat to New Delhi's national security while trying to remain open to good relations with the West, increasingly important to India's national strategy. In the long run, an alliance with an increasingly isolated Russia would not benefit New Delhi as much as a strategic alliance with the United States, which has welcomed Modi's statements.

On the contrary, according to speculation by some analysts, it may be that the statement was a coordinated ploy between Modi and Putin to allow India, from which Russia gets a diplomatic cover, to move closer to the West without jeopardizing relations with Moscow, on which New Delhi depends for energy and advanced weapons supplies. At present, the actual motivations are unclear, just as it is unclear whether there will be practical consequences for the war in Ukraine.

In his address to the UN General Assembly, Joe Biden denounced Russia’s attempt to erase Ukraine from the map. He emphasized the fact that Putin questions Ukraine’s existence as a state and as a people. Biden’s speech at the UN General Assembly coincided with Putin’s decision to mobilize 300 000 reserves for the war in Ukraine. Moreover, in his speech he warned the West of using nuclear weapons if Russia is threatened. It is worth noting that Putin’s statement forced the Biden administration to make certain changes to President’s speech and adjusted it to Putin’s statement. Furthermore, in his speech, Joe Biden emphasized the war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine and called Putin a “Global Pariah”. According to him, an attack by a member of the United Nations Security Council on its neighbour and violation of the core principles of the UN Charter is untenable. The US President also called on its allies to bolster their support for Ukraine and once again affirmed the US’s readiness to allocate billions of dollars for providing weapons supplies to Ukraine. Moreover, Joe Biden stressed that the upcoming century would be a rivalry between democracies and autocracies.

The upcoming midterm elections in the US raised questions about the continuation of the US support for Ukraine in terms of providing military aid. As some controversies emerged among the Republicans regarding federal spending, the fate of the military aid for Ukraine that is planned to be delivered in the next week is at risk. In particular, the divide between the party establishment wing and conservatives aligned with former US President Donald Trump reduces the chances of providing Ukraine with hefty military aid. Recently the Republicans have already made objections to the solid military aid for Ukraine worth $40 billion. In particular, 57 House members and 11 senators opposed the legislation. The main argument of the Republicans dealt with more control of the money expenditure and the weaponry sent to Ukraine. Besides, the party members argue that the aid for Ukraine comes at the expense of coping with the US domestic challenges such as high inflation, gas prices, and immigration. It is worth mentioning that a Republican House will likely be more conservative in 2023 which will put into question the solid expenditures for Ukraine aid.

Kremlin’s propaganda continues with its attempts to justify so-called "referendums" in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In particular, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used this argument to support the alleged "legality" of such a "vote" at Russian gun points. According to him, the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, partially captured by the occupiers, allegedly "want to become part of Russia" and, based on this, "have the right to self-determination" under the UN Charter. Representatives of the EU, as well as the United States, have said that democracies will never recognize any pseudo-referendums that Russia will try to hold in temporarily captured Ukrainian cities. The so-called votes and attempts to proclaim new "people's republics" or "join with Russia" will be considered illegitimate. The Kremlin also neglects Ukrainian law. Any fake "votes" in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories are legally null and void and have no legal consequences. In wartime conditions in Ukraine, it is forbidden to hold any elections of government bodies, to make changes to the legislation or the Constitution, and to hold referendums.

Russian propaganda continues informational support for the so-called “referendums” in the temporarily occupied regions of Ukraine. In this context, the Kremlin media and Telegram channels spread information that allegedly, all temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine simultaneously adopted a “voluntary” decision to “immediately join Russia.” Moreover, the occupiers are already spreading information about how many residents are ready to take part in the so-called “referendum” and what the decision will be. Allegedly, in the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, 80% of residents will vote “yes,” in the Luhansk region – 93%, and in the Donetsk region – 94%.  At the same time, the occupiers are trying to imitate “democracy,” and based on the results of “surveys,” they assume that in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions some residents will “vote” to “remain part of Ukraine.”

Russian propaganda accompanies the information about the fake “referendums” with messages that as soon as these territories “join Russia,” any strike by the Ukrainian army will be considered a “strike against Russia” and will be a reason for a declaration of war.