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A Voice of Optimism for the Midterms
By Janet Singer and Bente Bechtold, intern
We have been conditioned to believe that the party in power loses seats in a midterm election. This is because midterms are usually a referendum on the President and the party out of power is more motivated to get back in and has a higher turnout.
But sometimes, when there are big historical events like 9/11, or the overturning of Roe and hearings about an ongoing criminal conspiracy by MAGA Republicans, a midterm election will follow a different trajectory.
According to Simon Rosenberg, political strategist, election analyst, founding President of the New Democratic Network, and others, there is quite a bit of evidence suggesting that this is going to be an ahistorical Midterm.
Independents tend to turn away from whichever party appears most extreme–so Democrats lose independents when they get painted as socialists who want to defund the police, and Republicans lose independents when MAGA extremists promote the government forcing a 10-year-old rape victim to have a baby. For voters tuning in to the January 6 Committee Hearings, the Republican conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election is evident for all to see.
According to Rosenberg, the Republican brand has dropped 24 points among independents. If the GOP loses both independents and Never-Trump Republicans, their best hope will be if Democrats stay home. That scenario looks less likely than it did earlier in the summer, with surging Democratic enthusiasm. Biden’s net approval keeps sinking, but the generic ballot margin (a poll showing voters’ preference for an unnamed Democrat versus an unnamed Republican) has hardly budged. Voters seem to view Biden separately from the rest of the party. This at least suggests we’re not about to have a red wave and that the Midterms will be a choice election rather than a referendum on the President.
Midterms are all about turnout, and the anti-MAGA movement drove the winning turnout for Democrats in 2018 and 2020. If that remains strong, we can win the turnout battle and make this an ahistorical midterm.
Even with all this cause for optimism, these are still highly competitive elections. We will have to put all our efforts into driving turnout to elect people who believe in democracy. We cannot hold back. But in the wake of horrific shootings and Roe's overturn, we’ve been given an opportunity. The American people are responding and the standing of the Republican Party is eroding. Let’s not waste this moment by giving in to despair or pessimism. To win, we must continue to make this a choice election.
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