GM. This is Ponder Crypto.
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The crypto newsletter that one hundred thousand percent believes every word that comes out of this little lady's mouth.
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๐ Bitcoin Soars Amid Turmoil
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๐จ Periods When to Make Money
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๐ฐ Crypto Chronicles 2023: Week 12
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๐ฅ This Week on PonderTube
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๐ Bitcoin Soars Amid Turmoil
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Never a dull day in crypto land.
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Amid fears of a full-on collapse of the banking system, Bitcoin has rose... Significantly. 16% over the last 30 days and 70% from the start of the year.
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This is big because there has been a shift in the market's perspective of, "what is Bitcoin's purpose".
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Bitcoin is viewed as many things to different people but the core value proposition is:
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- Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation
- Bitcoin is a hedge against fiat (government) currencies
- Bitcoin is freedom money
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A large portion of the market up until now has invested in Bitcoin as if it were a "risky tech stock".
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And we've seen some fairly significant returns over the years because of that.
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When people start investing in Bitcoin as a hedge against their native currency, against the stability of their future... get ready for some serious VOLATILITY and price APPRECIATION.
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๐จ Periods When to Make Money
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You may have heard about Nostradamus, but what about Samuel Benner?!
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Samuel Benner was a farmer from the 1800s and produced the chart above called The Benner Cycle.
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The Benner Cycle was published in 1875.
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Keep that in mind, these dates were predicted BEFORE 1900.
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This is a recreation of the Benner Cycle he published
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Benner studied markets and patterns and with the help of some mushrooms or black magic for all we know, came up with one of the most accurate market prediction models to date.
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Benner's model was based on three key phases within a cycle:
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- Years in which panics will occur
- Years of good times, high prices, and good times to sell assets
- Years of hard times, low prices, and good times to buy
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He was uncertain about the specific factors that would trigger these cycles; however, he knew that some events would significantly impact our economy.
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Just take a look at some of the key years:
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- 1927 - The great depression started in 1929.
- 1945 - World War 2 ended in 1945
- 1999 - Dot Com bubble and stock market crash
- 2019 - Covid breakout in 2020 causing stock market crash
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It's obviously not 100% accurate. But for having been created in 1875, Benner could have easily been his generation's Ms. Cleo.
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An interesting date that stood out to me was 2007, highlighted as being a good time to sell assets. In 2008, one year later, the mortgage crisis hit.
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According to the chart, 2023 through 2026 are prime years to acquire assets.
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With Bitcoin's halving coming up in 2024, I think Mr. Benner has an excellent chance to keep his streak up.
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๐ฐ Crypto Chronicles 2023: Week 12
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Top stories you should know this week.
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Brief Summary: Senator Ted Cruz has introduced a bill aimed at preventing the U.S. Federal Reserve from developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for direct-to-consumer use. Supported by Republican Senators Mike Braun and Chuck Grassley, the bill seeks to protect financial privacy and maintain the dollar's dominance while fostering innovation. The senators argue that a CBDC could be used as a surveillance tool, allowing the government to track transactions and collect personal information on users. This marks their second attempt to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC directly to individuals, with a similar bill introduced in March 2022 remaining in the introduction phase.
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Ponder Crypto's Take: Love seeing ANY politician fight back against CBDCs, Booger eaters, and all. The U.S. is pushing the new FinTech companies away and into the arms of another country. We are seeing a desperate power grab in the making by our government and I expect a lot of turmoil through the rest of this decade. Hell, wouldn't be shocked to see serious talks of annexation by Texas and other similar states.
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Brief Summary: In a recent bankruptcy case involving Voyager Digital Holdings, U.S. bankruptcy Judge Michael E. Wiles criticized SEC agents for their unclear and inconsistent approach to regulating cryptocurrencies as securities. The judge expressed frustration with the lack of guidance and public certainty provided by the SEC, stating that the regulatory environment is highly uncertain. Wiles rejected the idea that it should be the responsibility of Voyager or the court to decipher the SEC staff's opinions on cryptocurrency regulations. This lack of clarity and consistency from the SEC not only impacts individual cases but also leaves investors and businesses in the crypto industry uncertain about their legal standing.
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Ponder Crypto's Take: This is an attempt to FORCE clarity on the crypto space by the SEC. I honestly believe that Gensler knows the current regulatory policies do not work well with the crypto space. If you HAD to apply the current rules to cryptos and leverage the Howie test, sure, you can make an argument that some are securities. But the right thing to do is figure out a proper regulatory model and not force legal designations worded with traditional finance in mind.
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Brief Summary: Cryptocurrency expert and former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, has launched the #BitSignal campaign to warn people about an alleged hidden financial crisis caused by banks and regulators. As part of this campaign, Srinivasan is offering $1 million in Bitcoin to those who can provide evidence of the banking system's insolvency and Bitcoin's superiority. He also predicts that Bitcoin's value will reach $1 million per coin within 90 days. The BitSignal campaign aims to raise awareness and incite action by paying $1,000 each for the best 1,000 tweets that demonstrate the banking system's insolvency and Bitcoin's advantages. Srinivasan argues that, unlike the 2008 crisis, the current crisis is concealed from the public through complex language and deception, with depositors unaware of their banks' insolvency due to sudden rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
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Ponder Crypto's Take: That's a bold take, Cotton. While I wholeheartedly believe Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars in the "not so distant" future, to put a 90-day timeline feels ridiculous. I will say that IF the banking industry collapses like Balaji's, theseis is built around, hyper-inflation of the U.S. dollar could easily drive a million-dollar Bitcoin price. It would also cause gold, corn, bullets, and many other key commodities and products to shoot up in value too . I hope Balaji is wrong because, in this scenario, we would see anarchy beyond scales that anyone can even imagine...
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Brief Summary: The highly anticipated Shanghai hard fork on Ethereum is set for April 12, marking a significant milestone in Ethereum's transition from a proof-of-work to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus. The mainnet upgrade features five Ethereum Improvement Proposals, including EIP-4985, which will enable staked Ether withdrawals on the Beacon Chain. Validators will receive reward payments automatically at periodic intervals, while stakers can exit positions entirely. Ethereum's PoS smart contract has attracted over 17.6 million ETH, worth nearly $29.4 billion. Following the Shanghai hard fork, Ethereum's roadmap includes several updates such as "Surge," "Verge," "Purge," and "Splurge."
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Ponder Crypto's Take: Seems like this is flying under the radar. I feel like this SHOULD create some sell pressure once live as people look to cash in some profits after the removal of staking services by some of the key exchanges. But this is crypto; who the hell knows how the market will react?! Ethereum has turned deflationary with the level of burning, so happy to see the foundation making development strides.
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Brief Summary: Ark Invest's Cathie Wood emphasizes the virtues of cryptocurrency, particularly amid banking crises like the recent Silicon Valley Bank collapse. As traditional financial institutions face liquidity and solvency issues, Wood notes that businesses and individuals are hedging their fiat assets with cryptocurrencies and shifting from low-yield bank deposits to higher-yielding money market funds. She highlights the decentralized, transparent, and auditable nature of crypto assets, pointing to their surge in value during the banking crisis as evidence of their resilience. Wood questions why regulators would restrict access to cryptocurrencies, which she views as an "insurance" against potential policy mistakes by financial authorities.
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Ponder Crypto's Take: Cathie is the cool, calm, collected head we need in crypto. She is a forward-thinking investor that understands the impacts tech and innovation have on markets. Crypto and Bitcoin, specifically, are an asymmetric bet against a system that appears to be crashing beneath us. I would argue that its risky for someone NOT to be somewhat invested in Bitcoin at this point.
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๐ฅ This Week on PonderTube
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Age of Easy Money (full documentary) | FRONTLINE
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High inflation. Fear of recession. Disruptions, like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. How did the U.S. economy get here? A two-hour documentary special traces the road to this moment, and the role of the Federal Reserve, the countryโs central bank.
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The Truth About the Fed's Sudden Reversal
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What would happen if the Federal Reserve decided to print $100 trillion? They put these hundred trillion dollars on a spaceship and ship it to Mars. Hyperinflation a deflationary death spiral Obviously, nothing would happen because printing money and shipping it off to Mars would have the same effect as not printing any money.
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Now, the second question, what do you think would happen if the Federal Reserve decided to print $3 trillion, let's say, handed that to the US government, and the US government decided to use that to write stimulus checks to people, start the paycheck protection program, suspend mortgage payments, and give money to organizations and agencies, and literally give Oprah free money.
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This is not financial advice. I am merely stating my own opinion on how I am perceiving the current market structure and conditions. Consult with a legal investment advisor and all the other good legal stuff that needs to be said.
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Disclosure: All content shared in the Ponder Crypto website, newsletters, video channels or any other medium are for entertainment purposes only and should not be received as legal or financial advice. We are not legal experts or financial planners so please, exercise proper due diligence and do your own research.
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