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Farmers on the Brink

“Farming looks mighty easy when your plow is a pencil and you're a thousand miles from the corn field.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower

We are in the midst of a global famine of historic proportions and it's all of our own makings. Soon, tens of millions of the world's most impoverished people will die from starvation while the ones who are comfortably getting by now (us) will be in for a shock.

How did we get here?
First, we need to turn to the fertilizer market

The price of fertilizer

• Key sources of nitrogen, potassium and phosphorus (important inputs into soil fertility, crop yield and plant maintenance) have all gone vertical
  
• Belarus is the third-largest supplier of potash (potassium-rich salt) in the world and they declared force majeure after sanctions were imposed by the US and Europe
• The number two supplier? Russia. Enough said
• China halted phosphate export last September to ensure adequate domestic supply
• The combined impact? A hockey stick on the Green Markets North America Fertilizer Index

Weed Control

• Herbicides are an important tool in the farmer's arsenal and the most widely used is glyphosate
• It is derived from ammonia and ammonia is derived from natural gas which we all know has also gone vertical
• If farmers skim on herbicides this season, it only makes dealing with weeds more challenging in the future
• It only takes one year of negligence to do several years of damage to a field.

Other factors

• The problem that the automobile production industry is dealing with - chip shortage, is also being felt by the farming equipment industry
• Labour shortage

Compounding all these challenges and it's a catastrophe waiting to happen. Farmers will either raise prices dramatically or go broke.
Inflation in the f&b sector now is already hot but it's still nothing compared to what is coming. 

Brace yourself. Prepare accordingly.

Before you go...

• Check out issue #70 where we talked about Bitcoin hitting $1 million 📈💰
  
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