Dear colleagues,

Welcome to the latest news from NDC ASPECTS, the EU Horizon 2020 project assessing sectoral perspectives to support the Global Stocktake and subsequent NDCs. We report on drivers of and barriers for stronger NDCs, present suggestions for a fossil fuel supply governance framework, and present the project consortium’s submission to the second information collection window of the UNFCCC Global Stocktake (GST).

Enjoy the read!

With the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement underway, it is crucial to understand what determines the ramping up of climate ambition envisioned by the Agreement’s ratcheting mechanism. As part of the NDC ASPECTS research, consortium members analysed NDC enhancement with a mixed-method design, combining quantitative analysis of NDC pledges from 122 countries with a qualitative deep-dive of 4 case studies. Read more at http://ndc-aspects.eu/blog/assessing-enhancement-nationally-determined-contributions-why-and-how

Factors affecting the enhancement of the 2030 GHG emissions target in the updated NDCs. Point estimates are coefficients from separate bivariate logistic regression models. Horizontal lines are uncorrected 95% confidence intervals.

The NDC ASPECTS consortium submitted its latest research to the second information collection window of the UNFCCC Global Stocktake (GST). The submission argues that a sectoral perspective can help the GST effectively achieve its objective to inform the Parties in enhancing subsequent NDCs and international cooperation. Explore the submission in detail at http://ndc-aspects.eu/blog/ndc-aspects-submits-its-findings-second-information-collection-unfccc-global-stocktake-process

A new article by NDC ASPECTS consortium members Harro van Asselt and Peter Newell in Global Environmental Politics explores diplomatic and legal options for addressing the need to leave remaining fossil fuels in the ground. The piece explores how international cooperation in support of a managed decline of fossil fuel production could take shape to cover more countries, analysing two possible pathways—one following a club model building, and the other more akin to a multilateral environmental agreement. Download the article at http://ndc-aspects.eu/news-events/new-article-global-environmental-politics-diplomatic-and-legal-options-addressing-need

The completion of the Paris Agreement’s rulebook at COP 26 in Glasgow tightened linkages between Article 6 and ICAO’s offsetting scheme CORSIA. A new NDC ASPECTS policy brief examines 4 key interactions between the Article 6 rules and CORSIA and their challenges. Download the paper at http://ndc-aspects.eu/sites/default/files/2022-09/ndc_aspects_policy_brief_2.pdf

The challenges of transforming the North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), the industrial power-house of Germany, into the first climate-neutral industrial region in Europe were discussed recently at a two-day conference “Science meets Business” in Essen, Germany. One of the plenary sessions was dedicated to the global context of industrial transformation. It discussed challenges and opportunities for trade, development and competitiveness. The session featured five international experts including key inputs from the NDC ASPECTS project. Read more at https://www.ndc-aspects.eu/blog/linking-challenges-industry-transformation-global-local-level

NDC ASPECTS is organising a panel at the upcoming 2022 Toronto Conference on Earth System Governance. The panel is called "Sectoral Options for advancing global climate governance" (ID219) and it is scheduled for Thursday 20 Oct. 2022 from 14:00-15:30 Eastern Daylight Time (20:00-21:30 Central European Time). Panel participants will present project outputs including the following:

•  Global Governance for the Decarbonisation of Energy-intensive Industries: Exploring Sectoral Options (Sebastian Oberthür, Simon Otto; Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

•  On the Road to Somewhere? Assessing Climate Governance Gaps and Options for the Land Transport Sector (Catherine Hall, Harro van Asselt; University of Eastern Finland)

•  Governance landscape and challenges in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use sectors for climate change mitigation (Adrián Vidal, María José Sanz, Silvestre García de Jalón, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven; Basque Centre for Climate Change)

•  Pathways to an International Agreement to Leave Fossil Fuels in the Ground (Harro van Asselt; University of Eastern Finland, Peter Newell; University of Sussex)

Find more details here: https://www.conftool.org/earthsystemgovernancetc2022/index.php?page=browseSessions&form_session=55&presentations=show