Image by hannazasimova on Freepik
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Deep Winter Newsletter February 2023 |
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Chamber of Commerce Europe - Central America |
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Let me refer, once more, to one of my favourite adagios: “What can Euracen do for you and what can you do for Euracen?” You have done already a greater part by deciding to stay on as a honourable member and by paying your annual individual or corporate membership. So now, it is up to Euracen to see what more it could do for you? The best way to answer that question for us would be to find out, once and for all: “who is who, who is doing what, and what are your ambitions with regard to your international business expansion?”.
In other words, find out what exactly your activities are, what your interests are in the Central American Region, and to what extent you would be willing to invest in international projects in one of the eight countries under Euracen flag? After all, there is no point in introducing you and your company to the Ambassadors of those countries in Brussels, and to owners and decision makers of projects on the other side of the ocean who would be looking for possible "matching partners" and/or potential investors, if we do not know whether you would be willing to transform your interest into reality. As it is our goal this year to identify more “matching partners”, we plan to draw up a profile of each of our members with a description of his/her specific activities, both in writing and, if possible supported by AV-material. The ultimate idea is to make this information available on our interactive website
www.euracen.eu
We therefore want to lay hands on more projects, based on our “Reversed Thinking” business model, whereby we urge Ambassadors and commercial staff members, and their counterparts in their home country, to bring pending public or private projects to our attention. We will ask them also to provide us not only with early bird information but also with a detailed and documented description of such projects, or at least provide us with a relevant link to the information. It goes without saying that we will continue to guide and support “matching partners” and make sure to put them in direct contact with the real decision makers.
Wish you all a safe and interesting month of February!
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PRESIDENT |
Erwin De Weerdt |
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NEWS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA |
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Рrіmе Міnіѕtеr Јоhn Вrісеñо rесеіvеѕ dеbt rеѕtruсturіng аwаrd
Ву Zоіlа Раlmа Gоnzаlеz
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Оn Јаnuаrу 26, 2023, Рrіmе Міnіѕtеr Јоhn Вrісеñо rесеіvеd оn bеhаlf оf thе Gоvеrnmеnt аnd реорlе оf Веlіzе, thе Ѕоvеrеіgn Rеѕtruсturіng оf thе Yеаr аwаrd аt Lаtіn Fіnаnсе аnnuаl Dеаlѕ оf thе Yеаr Аwаrdѕ Dіnnеr іn Nеw Yоrk.
“Оur соuntrу’ѕ іmаgе аnd іntеrnаtіоnаl rесоgnіtіоn ѕоаrеd whеn wе асhіеvеd оur Іnаugurаl Вluе Воnd fоr Осеаn Соnѕеrvаtіоn. Іt ѕеtѕ аn ехаmрlе fоr іntеgrаtіng fіѕсаl mаnаgеmеnt wіth соnѕеrvаtіоn аnd dеmоnѕtrаtеd thіѕ ѕmаll соuntrу’ѕ rеѕроnѕіbіlіtу tо есоnоmіс аnd dеbt mаnаgеmеnt thаt рutѕ реорlе, rеѕоurсеѕ, соmmіtmеnt tо сlіmаtе сhаngе аnd іntеrnаtіоnаl оblіgаtіоnѕ аt thе fоrеfrоnt,” thе Рrіmе Міnіѕtеr ѕаіd. Тhе Рrіmе Міnіѕtеr ехtеndеd соngrаtulаtіоnѕ tо thе nаtіоn аnd hіѕ аdmіnіѕtrаtіоn : “Wе rеіtеrаtе оur соmmіtmеnt tо rеmаіn ѕtеаdfаѕt tо dеvеlорmеnt thаt іѕ nаtіоn аnd реорlе fосuѕеd,” hе аddеd.
https://www.breakingbelizenews...
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Costa Rican Congress Abandons Escazu Agreement on Environment
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photo by Patrick T. Fallon / Courtesy AFPp
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The Costa Rican Congress voted on Wednesday to abandon the Escazu Agreement on the environment, despite the fact that the country was, together with Chile, the promoter of this emblematic Latin American agreement.
The deadline for approving the project ended on February 1, after four years of proceedings without progress, and a proposal to extend the discussion for another four years was rejected. With 41 votes against, 11 in favor and one absence, the Legislative Assembly buried the bill in the archives, which caused dismay among the deputies who wanted Costa Rica to approve the Agreement.
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Dominican Republic will have 600 MW in renewable energyby the end of 2023
Courtesy El Caribe
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Rafael Gómez, Vice Minister of Energy, spoke about the Dominican Republic’s energy and climate challenges during his participation in the Caribbean Energy Conference, which was recently held at the Jaragua hotel in this capital.
During his speech at the session on Tuesday, engineer Gómez emphasized the importance of renewable energies in the Dominican Republic and reported that the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) and the National Energy Commission (CNE) have promoted a plan to promote them, to have 25% of the energy produced and consumed in the Dominican Republic come from renewable sources by 2025. He predicted that by 2030, 30% of energy production would come from renewable sources, to meet the mandate of Law 57-07, which encourages and regulates the development and investment in projects that use any renewable energy source.
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EL Salvador passes Law on Cryptocurrency Transfers
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El Salvador’s legislative assembly on Wednesday approved a digital assets law aimed at leg ally protecting transfers or debt issues with cryptocurrencies. El Salvador was the first country to adopt bitcoin as a legal currency in September 2021, using it along with the US dollar, which it adopted as its currency in 2001.
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The 47-article law received 62 votes in favor out of 84 seats in Congress. “El Salvador’s Legislative Assembly has just approved, by an overwhelming majority, the new Digital Securities Law! Forward, always forward,” wrote President Nayib Bukele on Twitter.
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Ancient Mayan city discovered beneath Guatemala rainforest
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Findings suggest formation of ‘state-level kingdom’ over 2,000 years ago in now ‘inhospitable’ area
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Scientists have uncovered a massive 2,000-year-old Mayan site hidden underneath a Guatemala rainforest, an advance that has revealed interesting new details about the ancient civilisation. The long-lost site encompassed a web of nearly 1,000 urban settlements interconnected by 160km (100 miles) of causeways across an area of about 1,700 square km (650 square miles), according to the research published recently in the journal Ancient Mesoamerica.
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Honduras’ Cheap Real Estate and Low Cost of Living Attracts More Than Retirees
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According to William Pitt, more and more people are choosing to buy abroad specially older adults because they find beautiful and peace full places to spend their golden years. Tired of working just to pay the bills and have no down time? Retire early or just plain relocate to the Caribbean and save money in the process! Check out Honduras … it offers cheap real estate and a low cost of living.
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Flor de Caña Rum commemorates 130 years of commitment to sustainability
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The premium rum brand has become an industry leader for its sustainable practices, being the world’s only spirit to be both Carbon Neutral and Fair Trade certified.
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Few companies in the world can boast more than a century of heritage, remaining a family business across five generations and holding the world’s top sustainability credentials: Carbon Neutral and Fair Trade. That’s Flor de Caña Rum, who has been nestled at the base of an active volcano producing its unique brand of sustainably made rums since 1890. This is its story.
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Fitch believes Panama and mining giant have too much not to agree
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Due to the weight of the Cobre Panama project in First Quantum's finances, as it contributes more than 40% of its copper production and the mine's 4% contribution to Panama's gross domestic product, Fitch believes that both parties will be able to reach an agreement on the missing points to sign a new contract. However, the risk rating agency estimates that before all obstacles are overcome, the copper mine will be under the maintenance stage for a period of six months.
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Economic Snapshot for Central America |
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(courtesy FocusEconomics)
Economic Growth
egional growth will cool markedly next year. Private spending will feel the weight of still-high inflation and weak consumer sentiment. Similarly, tightening monetary policy will hurt investment activity growth, while a weakening global economy bodes poorly for regional exports. A potential U.S. recession and domestic political instability are major risks to the outlook.
Inflation Outlook Regional inflation eased slightly to 8.2% in October (September: 8.3%), marking the third consecutive month of easing pressures. This was chiefly thanks to lower inflation in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Panama, while inflation in Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua intensified. Inflation is seen cooling further next year, although it will remain historically elevated.
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Economic Indicators
For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19. In recent years, Belize had been showing encouraging signs of growth derived from strong tourism inflows and the external sector, particularly merchandise sales. However, as Belize is largely dependent on tourism, the country was hit hard during the 2020 recession. Nevertheless, the country managed to recover in 2021 and, according to the latest IMF forecasts, Belize registered an estimated growth in GDP of 8.5%, mainly driven by private consumption, a significant recovery in the tourism industry, and a rebound in exports. Belize's economy is expected to continue to recover in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace, with the IMF predicting a GDP growth of 5.4% for 2022 and 2.8% for 2023.
Despite boasting a revenue-to-GDP ratio that is higher than other countries in the region, Belize has a significant level of public debt, which reached an estimated 117.9% of GDP. According to the IMF, gross debt is projected to decrease to 113.9% in 2022 and 111.4% in 2023. The country's account deficit closed at an estimated 8.2% in 2021, and it is expected to remain stable in 2022 before slightly decreasing to 8.1% in 2023. Moreover, inflation stood at 3.1% in 2021, and should reach 2.5% in 2022 and 2% in 2023. In addition, foreign exchange reserves have fallen as a consequence of debt service and a decrease in foreign investment in the country. Policy, regulatory, and institutional weaknesses throughout Belize limits entrepreneurial activity and provides no cover for a weak banking sector. Tariff and non-tariff barriers, as well as corruption, also affect economic development. Hydrocarbon resources also represent half of the country’s tax revenues. In 2021, the government continued implementing measures in response to the economic crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, which included increased health spending, financial support for workers and vulnerable groups in hard-hit sectors (especially tourism) - both of which have been financed with loans from bilateral and multilateral creditors - a reduction of statutory cash reserve requirements, a government stimulus that encourages domestic banks and credit unions to provide grace periods for servicing interest and/or principal of commercial and ancillary loans, and a reduction of risk-weights for banks on loans in the tourism sector from 100% to 50%. Overall, Belize's fiscal measures to mitigate the pandemic have been effective in boosting economic activity, which has been gradually recovering.
According to the latest IMF estimates, although the unemployment rate was heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and spiked to 13.7% in 2020, unemployment declined to 10.6% in 2021 and it should further decrease to 9.7% in 2022. Belize has a high GDP per capita when compared to the rest of the region. However, there are still high levels of poverty and income disparity. Belize also has a problem with violent crime, largely drug-related, and the trafficking of narcotics to the United States. On the other hand, the country has the world's second largest barrier reef, and in order to protect it, the government declared 10% of its territorial waters as protected area.
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Inflation plunges to lowest level since April in November
Inflation dropped to 8.3% in November, following October’s 9.0%. November's figure marked the weakest inflation rate since April. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing, housing, and transport increased at a softer rate in November. The trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 7.9% in November (October: 7.5%). Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.14% in November over the previous month, contrasting October's 0.76% fall.
On the outlook, analysts at the EIU commented: “ The government measures to cap local fuel prices, a slackening in the global oil market and a forced cooling of domestic demand (owing to a steep rise in local interest rates) mean that inflation is likely to slow over 2023 and will close the year within sight of the BCCR's [2–4%] target range. Assuming that there is less volatility in the global economy in 2024-27, it should become easier for the BCCR to set monetary policy that enables inflation to stay within the target range.”
FocusEconomics panelists project inflation to end 2023 at 4.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2024 at 3.5%.
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Economic activity growth drops to over one-year low in November
Economic activity rose 2.9% compared to the same month of the previous year in November, which was a deterioration from October’s 3.8% annual expansion. November's result marked the weakest reading since February 2021. Accordingly, the trend deteriorated; annual average economic activity growth fell to 5.5% in November (October: +6.3%), which marked an over one-year low. Lastly, on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, activity bounced back and expanded 1.5% in November, which contrasted the prior month’s 0.4% decline. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 4.1% in 2023, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 4.5% in 2024.
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Dominican Republic Economic Activity Chart
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Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Dominican Republic Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
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El Salvador GDP Annual Growth Rate
The most important sector of El Salvador economy is services which accounts for 66 percent of total GDP, including internal trade (14 percent); real estate activities (8 percent); public administration (8 percent); finance and insurance (7 percent) and education (5 percent). Industry constitutes 27 percent of total wealth, with the largest shares for manufacturing (18 percent), construction (6 percent) and utilities (3 percent). Also, agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing sector accounts for 6 percent of GDP. On the expenditure side, household consumption is the main component of GDP (85 percent), followed by gross fixed capital formation and government spending (16 percent each). Exports of goods and services represent 28 percent of GDP while imports account for 45 percent, subtracting 17 percent of total GDP.
El Salvador GDP Grows by 2.1% in Q3
The economy of El Salvador expanded by 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2022, the least since the fourth quarter of 2020 and easing from the downwardly revised 2.4 percent growth in the previous period. Contractions were noted for government expenditure (-1.8 percent vs -7.7 percent in Q2), while slower growth took place in household consumption (1.9 percent vs 2.6 percent). In the meantime, a faster increase in gross fixed capital formation (10.4 percent vs 6.9 percent) limited the slowdown in El Salvador’s GDP. Also, net foreign demand contributed positively to the GDP as exports (12.7 percent) grew faster than imports (2.5 percent). On a quarterly basis, the economy grew by 0.5 percent after contracting 0.5 percent in the prior quarter.
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With a population of 17 million and a GDP of US$77.6 billion (2020), Guatemala is the largest economy in Central America and an upper middle-income country, measured by its GDP per capita (US$4,603 in 2020). Over the last three decades, Guatemala had the least volatile growth among its structural and aspirational peers. Public debt and the budget deficit have been historically among the lowest and most stable globally.
Guatemala has an opportunity for transformation focusing on priority areas for accelerating inclusive, productive, and sustainable growth, including by building a more inclusive social contract through more and better Human Capital investment, fostering a stronger business climate to accelerate job creation and boost productivity, and enhancing sustainability with increased fiscal revenue and greater public expenditure efficiency and resilience to shocks through climate adaptation.
Boosting robust, inclusive growth and reducing poverty in Guatemala will require continued efforts to raise productivity growth and facilitate the entry of women into the labor market; increase investments in human capital, innovation and resilient infrastructure; and address challenges in transparency, governance, and citizen security, among others.
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In brief The president, Xiomara Castro of the leftist Libertad y Refundación (Libre) party, faces an increasingly challenging outlook as regards governability as she nears the end of her first year in office. Although she benefits from high approval ratings, the collapse of the legislative alliance between Libre and the centrist Partido Salvador de Honduras (PSH) will hinder her efforts to advance her reform agenda.
High inflation and an expected economic slowdown in 2023 will also weigh on her administration, but even so, we still believe that Ms Castro will make piecemeal progress on her agenda. Her next big test in Congress will be to install the International Commission against Impunity in Honduras (a body that will seek to uncover past corruption), thereby fulfilling a core campaign pledge.
Resilience in economy will not prevent a slowdown in 2023. GDP accelerated in the third quarter, but a downturn in the US economy will weigh on growth this year. The country's economy rebounded to a 12.5 percent growth in 2021 and is expected to grow a 3.5 percent in 2022 and 3.1 percent in 2023.
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In brief Having stage-managed a general election in November 2021, the president, Daniel Ortega, is set to remain in power throughout the 2023-27 forecast period. Mr Ortega's increasingly authoritarian manoeuvres are likely to provoke international backlash, but they will not persuade him to change political course. Economic growth will continue to slow in 2023 as demand for exports weakens amid a deteriorating global outlook. The economic relationship with China will grow in importance.
Nicaraguan government slows pace of currency depreciation. The adjustment might be designed to boost confidence in the government's economic management.
Nicaragua's economy is forecast to grow 3% in 2023, down from expected growth of 4% this year, the International Monetary Fund said in a statement released on Wednesday, adding its economic outlook is favorable despite global risks going forward. "Nicaragua's economic outlook is favorable, although risks to the outlook are on the downside, primarily due to global headwinds," the IMF said in a statement after concluding a mission in the country. The IMF said real GDP growth is expected to moderate to 3% in 2023 due to weaker external demand and tighter external financial conditions. After contracting by about 9% during 2018-2020, Nicaragua's economic activity is recovering well, supported by appropriate macroeconomic and financial policies and substantial pre-crisis buffers from government deposits and international reserves, the fund added.
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GDP growth records slowest increase since Q1 2021 in Q3 According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth moderated to 9.5% year on year in the third quarter, from 9.8% in the second quarter. Q3's reading marked the softest growth since Q1 2021. The services sector grew 10.5% annually in the third quarter, decelerating from the second quarter's 12.2% increase and marking the worst result since Q1 2021. Meanwhile, the industrial sector gained steam, growing 9.5% in Q3 (Q2: +8.6% yoy). Agricultural sector growth edged up to 4.8% in Q3, from the 4.5% increase in the prior quarter. In Q4, available data suggests economic activity slowing further as lingering base effects work their way out of the series.
As a regional trade hub, the country should continue to be affected by the global slowdown. That said, declining inflation throughout the quarter bodes positively for consumer spending, while the recovery in tourist arrivals should continue to support growth ahead. On the outlook, analysts at the EIU stated: “After Panama's GDP recovered fully from the 2020 recession in 2022, a slowing global economy will dampen growth in 2023. Infrastructure, transport, tourism and rising output from the Cobre Panamá copper mine will drive expansion thereafter; the country's services-oriented model will help to deliver average annual GDP growth of 4% in 2024-27.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy expanding 4.3% in 2023, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2024, the economy is seen growing 4.7%.
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Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
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Central America Embassy Update |
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Embassy of Belize
A new lady Ambassador has arrived in Brussels. However, she still must first present her credentials to the King before she can officially take office. In the meantime we learned that she will be presiding SICA till June 30 of this year, when El Salvador takes over.
Bd Brand Whitlock 87-93, 6th floor
1200 Brussels
T +32 2 732 62 04
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Embassy of Costa Rica
As previously announced, pending the appointment of a new Ambassador, Mrs. Sylvia Van Der Laat,has joined the embassy team as Trade Attaché.
Avenue Louise 489 Louizalaan, 9th floor
1050 Brussels
T +32 2 640 55 41
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Embassy of the Dominican Republic and Mission to the European Union
HEM Ambassador Ivan Ogando
Avenue Louise 231, 2nd floor
1050 Brussels
T +32 2 346 49 35
As previously announced, Mrs. Ellen Martínez de Cooreman, Minister Counselor recently joined Mr. Ogando’s team
FB: http://www.facebook.com/domini... Twitter: @domembassybe
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Embassy of El Salvador
HEM Ambassador Hiugo Nelson Ortiz Dubon
Rue de la Science 14A Wetenschapsstraat, 2nd floor
1040 Brussels
T +32 2 733 04 85
As previously announced, HE Ambassador Ortiz Dubon is assisted by Mrs. Maria Alejandra Giron, Counsellor
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Embassy of Guatemala
HEM Ambassador José Lambour Penalonzo
Avenue Winston Churcill 185 Winston Churchilllaan
1180 Brussels
T +32 2 345 90 58
Ambassador Lambour is assisted by
Dr. Gabriel ORELLANA ZABALZA, Consejero Comercial
T +32 2 340 18 03
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Embassy of Honduras
Mrs. Viviane de Pierrefeu, Minister Counsellor, is still in charge of current affairs ad interim
Avenue de Cortenbergh 89 Kortenberglaan, 3rd floor
1000 Brussels
T +32 2 734 00 00
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Embassy of Nicaragua
HE Ambassador Mrs Zoila Muller Goff
Avenue Wolvendael 55 Wolvendaellaan
1180 Brussels
T +32 2 375 65 00
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Embassy of Panama
HE Mrs. Yavel Mireya Francis Lanuza, Ambassador
Avenue Louise 475 Louizalaan, 11th floor
1050 Brussels
T +32 2649 07 29
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NEWS FROM BELGIUM & EUROPE |
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Fluxys offering 13 additional slots at Zeebrugge LNG terminal
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Fluxys LNG, a part of Belgian natural gas transmission operator Fluxys, has decided to provide additional LNG slots at the Zeebrugge LNG terminal. With an intention to ensure increased LNG supply into Europe, Fluxys will be offering 13 additional primary slots to unload, store and regasify LNG cargoes in the Zeebrugge LNG terminal in 2023.
As disclosed, the first two slots will be auctioned in early January while the remaining slots will be auctioned later in 2023. The LNG terminal in Zeebrugge has been operational since 1987 and is one of the main LNG supply points to North-West Europe. The terminal currently supplies gas directly to the Belgian gas grid but also serves the Netherlands and Germany.
Last year, Fluxys started offering BioLNG liquefaction services at the Zeebrugge LNG Terminal in order to contribute to a carbon-neutral future.
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Wallonia, European Recycle Valley by 2030?
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By 2030, recycling actors want to make Wallonia a "Recycle Valley" at the heart of Europe. The target can be achieved through the WIN4C project (Walloon Initiative for Circular Materials). "The strategy developed by Wallonia will force all actors to talk to each other and develop together a roadmap for the circularity of materials, thus positioning Wallonia as a recycling valley in the heart of Europe," said Joeri Neutjens, director of the Centre for Research in Metallurgy (CRM). See also http://www.investinwallonia.be...
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