Dear colleagues,

Welcome to the latest news on NDC enhancement and the Global Stocktake (GST), powered by NDC ASPECTS, the EU Horizon 2020 project assessing sectoral perspectives to support the Global Stocktake and subsequent NDCs. This time, we share insights on determinants of NDC enhancements, based on the analysis of more than 100 NDCs, we call for better integration of climate action and the SDGs in the context of the GST, and we present reports on transformation opportunities, challenges, and policy options in four hard-to-abate sectors.

Enjoy the read!

NDC ASPECTS has recently published a collection of reports on transformation opportunities, barriers and policy options for energy-intensive industries, transport, buildings, as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU). The analyses focus on around 10 countries and show that while there generally is the potential to achieve sufficient emission reductions to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, mobilisation of this potential is impeded by strong barriers across all sectors.

In addition, existing policies are nowhere nearly strong enough to overcome these barriers and mobilise mitigation opportunities. The sectoral reports contain options to strengthen policies for each target country as well as cross-country comparisons of results.

Assess all reports at https://www.ndc-aspects.eu/news-events/new-collection-reports-transformation-opportunities-challenges-and-policy-options-four

In a new commentary in Nature Climate Change, NDC ASPECTS project partners Dr. Lukas Hermwille and Wolfgang Obergassel from the Wuppertal Institute, together with Dr. Adis Dzebo from the Stockholm Environment Institute and Dr. Gabriela Iacobuta from the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), argue that a stronger integration of climate action and UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are our best and only chance to achieve the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement after all. Their analysis shows that the NDCs and SDGs are insufficiently interrelated. Even within the technical phase of the Global Stocktake, which has been underway for over a year, an SDG perspective has only been a marginal issue. In practice, however, successfully implemented climate action is almost always linked to synergies between climate action and sustainable development. Conversely, weak or one-sided implementation is often due to a lack of integration of dimensions of sustainability beyond climate action.

Read the full commentary at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01813-2.epdf

A new research article has been published by NDC ASPECTS partners Lauri Peterson, Harro van Asselt, Lukas Hermwille and Sebastian Oberthür in the npj Climate Action journal. The article analyses different NDC enhancements from 111 countries around the world using a mixed-method design to investigate the determinants of these enhancements. Apart from a quantitative analysis of all 111 countries, the authors conducted qualitative case studies focusing on Brazil and South Africa.

Findings reveal that countries that engaged in stakeholder consultations with civil society, business, and labour groups prior to developing their updated or revised NDCs were more likely to enhance their greenhouse gas reduction targets. These results are further supported by the case studies. South Africa conducted comprehensive consultations and submitted an enhanced GHG target, while Brazil, which did not arrange open consultations, did not improve its target. This study underscores the significance of comprehensive and transparent stakeholder engagement processes, highlighting their potential to drive enhanced NDCs.

For more details, download the article below or read it online on https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-023-00051-8.

NDC ASPECTS' partners Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Panagiotis Fragkos, Konstantinos Fragkiadakis, and Amit Garg recently published on climate compatible development pathways for India in the Energy Strategy Reviews journal. The authors assessed the socio-technical, financial and macro-economic implications of India's energy sector transformation away from coal, by coupling a bottom-up technology-rich energy system model with a macroeconomic computable general equilibrium model.

Findings reveal that, in order to move towards its Net Zero target by 2070, India will need to restructure its coal-based power and industry sector. While there are some uncertainties in terms of the future development of renewable sources, about 225–230 bt of coal (valued at 6.5–6.8 Trillion USD) could be stranded by 2050. Additionally, large sectoral shifts in labour market are expected due to decarbonisation.

For more details, go to https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2023.101152.

You can find out about our notable partner projects here:
https://www.ndc-aspects.eu/about-project/synergies