1. 6. 2023

Dear readers, 

We are sad to announce that this is the last issue of our newsletter (at least for a while).
We would like to thank all of our readers for the loyalty and trust that was put into our newsletter. We hope that our Kremlin Watch briefing was something that gave you additional value to your viewpoint about Russia, the Russian aggression and the Kremlin's influence in the Central and Eastern European region. We tried our best to provide you with valuable information that could be useful to your further practice and knowledge.

To our deep regret, we have to end our publications due to major changes in the organisation. 

The European Values Center for Security Policy has presented a new strategic plan for the development of its activities. They will primarily focus on a sustainable Czech strategy towards Taiwan and China in the European context, from both the Prague and Taipei offices of the organisation. The People’s Republic of China is, next to the Russian Federation, the most important enemy of liberal democracies and there will be a strategic discussion in the European and transatlantic context in the coming years on how to deal with the upcoming conflict. Part of the leadership of European Values is establishing a new partner organisation that will focus on disinformation, Russian influence in the Czech-Slovak context and current and future geopolitical challenges facing the democratic West. You can find more information about new strategy on our website. We will introduce you our new projects soon.

Once again, thank you very much from all members of the Kremlin Watch Briefing contributors. 

Slava Ukraini. Heroyam Slava!

Kremlin Watch Briefing Team

• Border Tensions and Internal Struggles      
  
• Blame Game in the Aftermath
  
• How to respond?
  

• The oppositional Russian paramilitary units penetrated Belgorod Oblast of the Russian Federation
  
• Development of the hostilities in Russia
  
• What to do?    
  

• Russian media claim, that NATO is allegedly confident in the failure of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces     
  
• The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation noted, that the conflict in Ukraine will result in the US abandoning the support of Ukraine     
  
• Russian Ambassador to the United Kingdom stated, that Ukraine used British missiles to launch strikes on the civilian population of Donbas  
  

Russia does not wish to freeze the conflict in Ukraine and intends to achieve its goals through a special military operation said Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov according to TASS news agency. The invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow unleashed more than a year ago is now becoming complicated within Russia itself.

We have lately seen increasingly harsh statements from, for example, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has been openly critical of the Russian military and its leadership. However, the complication is now coming from Russia's border with Ukraine from the Belgorod region, where groups of ethnic Russians are siding with Ukraine and fighting on Russian territory against Russian troops. This whole situation is not particularly pleasing to the Russian leadership which is not backing behind with its statements.

According to previous reports by Kremlin spokesman Peskov, Putin has been briefed on the entire situation and has labelled the groups operating in the Belgorod region as saboteurs. However, no official statement has yet appeared on the official website of the government or President Putin. In recent days, we have only seen press reports about the ongoing Russian-Chinese dialogue, or news about the ceremony with the Russian soldiers. Putin has only commented on the whole situation by saying that Russia is 'going through difficult times'.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, these saboteurs should have been "imprisoned and liquidated" in the past. But now, the Russian Ministry of Defence has released videos it claims show artillery and bombing attacks targeting members of two units: the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Legion of Freedom of Russia. However, these videos could not be verified.

State media placed the news of the incursion far from the front pages of Rossiyskaya Gazeta. Other state-linked media, such as Moskovsky Komsomolets, reported that the "terrorist raid" in Belgorod was organized by Ukraine under the "command of NATO shadow instructors" regarding the information from BBC.

Opinions from big names in the Kremlin also came in the aftermath. For example, Yevgeny Prigozhin used the attack as another opportunity to criticize Russian defence ministry officials. Prigozhin extended his criticism to officials in the border regions, accusing them of stealing funds instead of protecting their country. Kremlin-friendly war columnist Alexander Kots also expressed frustration with military and intelligence officials who he said made the attack possible. Former President Dmitry Medvedev called the organizers of the attack “criminals and saboteurs” while asking the authorities to “kill them like rats”. Medvedev also accused Ukraine of lying when it denied responsibility for the attack and said the “Kyiv regime" was fully responsible for the attack, along with the US and the European Union. Igor Girkin, a former commander of separatist forces in eastern Ukraine, described the incursion as a Kyiv-directed propaganda operation aimed at boosting Ukraine's morale in light of the impending counter-offensive. Sergei Markov, a former Putin adviser, described the Belgorod incursion as an attempt by Zelensky to cover up the effects of the defeat of Bakhmut. He also told his loyal friend "' Putin, be tougher and tougher' is the new demand of the people," Markov wrote.

The reactions of the leading propagandists confirm again the utter confusion, imbalance, and delusional behaviour. The inconsistent and confused reactions among Russian representatives confirm the unpreparedness and surprise in Russian circles.

The question is whether there is a need to react to such confused and propagandistic statements. In my opinion, no. All the above-mentioned gentlemen, whether knowingly or unknowingly, are only serving the terrorist regime, which will throw them out of the window the moment they become unsuitable anyway.

Therefore, the Western powers shouldn't rag on such shouting in the air and make people like Medvedev happy so that he doesn't feel that he is somehow relevant, because he isn't.

The West and NATO allies must persist in supporting Ukraine to win the war as soon as possible. Because it will happen one day, no matter how hard Putin tries.

By utilizing force, the Russian paramilitary groups known as the “Russian Volunteer Corps” and the “Freedom of Russia Legion”, both comprising ethnic Russians and former Russian POWs who decided to change sides, entered Russia's Belgorod Oblast and assumed control over several border settlements between May 22-24. Videos as they crossed the Ukrainian border into Russian territory circulated on social media on May 22. Belgorod Oblast shares borders with Ukraine's Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, as well as with the Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast in Ukraine.

Both Ukrainian and Russian media sources have reported significant ground assaults targeting the Russian border checkpoint in the Grayvoron District of Belgorod Oblast. The "Russian Volunteer Corps" and the "Freedom of Russia Legion" have asserted their control over the Kozinka settlement and declared substantial progress deep into the oblast. The geolocated footage as of May 23 identified the area of hostilities (31.07 km2) as a disputed control zone. However, it disappeared from maps as of May 24. The photo and video materials suggest the saboteurs left the area. Later, the leadership of the Russian paramilitary units argued they conduct a successful operation and got back to Ukraine. Additionally, the sabotage attack made reportedly the Russians evacuate the nuclear munition from the nearby Belgorod-22 nuclear weapons storage.

The “Russian Volunteer Corps” and the “Freedom of Russia Legion” units claimed that they were allegedly “returning home” to continue their fight against Putin’s regime. However, the Ukrainian military intelligence argued the ethnic Russian fighters justified the operation on the territory of Belgorod Oblast with the creation of a "safe zone" to protect Ukrainian civilians from Russian assaults, following a notable increase of artillery, mortar, and MLRS attacks on border settlements in Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts in Ukraine. The governor of Belgorod Oblast acknowledged the existence of a sabotage group while placing blame on the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian military intelligence for orchestrating the incident. However, the Ukrainian government deniedм any direct involvement in the event, asserting that it is an internal matter for Russia.

Earlier incidents involving oppositional Russian paramilitary units infiltrating the border region of Bryansk occurred on March 2 and April 6. In the past, these sabotage groups withdrew after carrying out rear operations. However, in the present situation, they attempted to establish control over the territory. These current developments are characterized by a greater audacity, employing a larger fleet of combat vehicles and receiving substantial artillery and mortar support. Notably, these actions are taking place during daylight, and drone footage is promptly being shared online to intensify the psychological impact.

The Russian oppositional sabotage groups conducted a limited ground incursion, which have significant political repercussions within Russia. These cross-border raids exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's defence and might undermine Russian morale. Considering the potential for further sabotage attacks in Russia's border regions, to provoke the redeployment of Russian troops from their current frontline positions in Ukraine to defensive positions along the border. In such a scenario, Ukrainian forces should attempt to identify any emerging vulnerabilities in the Russian flanks for potential large-scale military operations.

Russian media have spread disinformation that NATO is allegedly confident in the failure of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to pro-Kremlin media, NATO military experts believe that Western countries are aware of the catastrophic situation of Ukraine at the front and have no doubt that sooner or later the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose due to excessive pressure from the US.

This disinformation is based on the interview of the commander of the US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, in which the US general commented on the expected counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The general expressed cautious optimism about the effectiveness of the Ukrainian army against the Russian invaders, stressing, that it is necessary to abandon the idea that the future counteroffensive is of decisive importance for the victory of Ukraine. According to the US general, this is an incorrect opinion that puts excessive pressure on the Ukrainian army. This statement was misinterpreted by Russian media as a sign of the upcoming defeat of the Ukrainian Army, to boost the morale of Russian forces.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergei Lavrov, in an interview to a pro-Kremlin TV channel, noted, that the conflict in Ukraine could end up with the US abandoning its allies. According to Lavrov, the support of Ukraine will continue as long as the US needs and the continuation of conflict would likely result in the US withdrawal from further support of Ukraine.

This narrative aims to present the US in the international arena as an unreliable and deceiving ally. In addition, this statement attempts to discourage other countries from developing cooperation with the US and show Russia as an honest and trustworthy partner.

The US government declared its commitment to support Ukraine against the backdrop of Russian aggression for as long as it takes. The recent statement on the support of Ukraine was made during the 2023 G7 summit following a meeting with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The G7 leaders' statement on Ukraine reiterated the unwavering commitment to support Ukraine, which is resisting Russian aggression and emphasized the need for a just peace that would respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all countries, according to the UN Charter.

The Commentary of the Russian Embassy in the United Kingdom on the visit of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to the UK claims, that Zelensky reported about the first uses of the Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which were used against the residential areas of Luhansk. The commentary expresses no doubt, that Ukraine will use advanced long-range weapons to sow terror among the civilian population of Donbas.

These claims attempt to present the UK assistance to Ukraine as an act of aggression towards the civilian population of the Donbas region and label the UK as the side, that supports the escalation of conflict, thus urging Russia to continue the so-called "special military operation" on the territory of Ukraine.

On May 11, the UK announced the supply of Storm Shadow missiles to the Ukrainian military as a "calibrated and proportionate response to Russia's escalation". The Ukrainian government assured, that these missiles will be used only to defeat the Russian occupation forces within the sovereign territory of Ukraine. On May 24, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov confirmed the use of Storm Shadow missiles by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko –  Skylar Young - Danylo Stonis

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