Why did Russia begin to use Iranian drones more often? |
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Europe’s big question: What a diminished Russia will do next? |
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- The illusion of Russian power
- The Assumptions over Russia’s Next Steps in the Ukraine War
- What to do?
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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Why did Russia begin to use Iranian drones more often? |
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Iranian footprint in the Russo-Ukrainian war |
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The American Institute for the Study of War reported that the use of 39 drones by the Russian military over the past two days indicates a significant increase in the use of these systems in the war against Ukraine. Analysts recall that they estimated on December 10 that the increase in the rate of drone attacks could indicate that Russian forces have stockpiled more Iranian-made drones after three weeks of November 17-December 7 of not using them, or that Russia has received or expects to receive a new batch of drones from Iran.
"Russian forces have probably increased the pace of drone attacks even more, trying to maintain their attacks on the critical infrastructure of Ukraine, given the probable depletion of high-precision missile reserves," the American Institute for the Study of War informed. At the same time, they indicate that the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense has already proven its high efficiency in destroying the "martyrs". Therefore, they say, the use of these systems by the Russian military during attacks on civilian objects in the rear areas is decreasing. "The Russian military will likely continue to use an increased number of these systems to attack civilian targets in Ukraine in its misguided attempt to break Ukraine's will to fight," the American Institute for the Study of War suggests. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia has high-precision missiles left for two or three massive strikes. Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, said this in an interview with "RBK-Ukraine". For sure, that is a reason why Russian forces are trying to use more Iranian weapons against Ukraine to save the expensive and difficult-to-construct missiles.
On the night of December 30 and 1 January, Russian troops bombarded Kyiv using Iranian-made drones, which is a continuation of increasing drone attacks in Ukraine. The command of the Air Force of Ukraine stated that that night the occupiers launched 16 and 45 the next day Shahed 131/136 drones at targets in Ukraine. All of them were shot down by Ukrainian air defense. But the fragments of one of the drones hit an administrative building and other civilian infrastructure. Military and political expert Oleksandr Kovalenko noted that Russia has already used 193 Iranian Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones from the second batch of 250 received from Iran. Oleksandr also believes that the intensity of use of these unmanned aerial vehicles by Russia in recent days could be caused not only by plans to spoil Ukrainians' New Year's celebrations but also by favorable weather conditions for strikes.
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Ukrainian air defense system demonstrated very high efficiency in shooting down Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles, and even their quantitative increase did not bring any results for the Russian troops. That does not mean that Russian forces will stop using them, but it could turn them to look for more efficient military equipment to continue bringing damage to Ukrainian civilian and military infrastructure. The Ukrainian government should continue to lobby harder sanctions against Iran and further supply of air defense systems. Economic sanctions will influence the affordability of drone production and new air defense systems will only help to strengthen resistance even in the case of more modern unmanned aerial vehicles usage by Russia.
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Europe’s big question: What a diminished Russia will do next? |
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The illusion of Russian power |
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As 2022 closes Europe is left dealing with uncertainty in terms of Russia’s next steps in the Ukrainian war. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has proven almost every assumption wrong that was made before the war by those who thought that Moscow could not attempt such a massive attack, those who believed that Russia was capable of clean-up the land of 40 million people in 10 days, and those who thought that the Russians had the technical and intelligence prowess to do more than a random bombardment of civilian areas. Now Europe is wondering what to do and prepare for.
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The Assumptions over Russia’s Next Steps in the Ukraine War |
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The war in Ukraine revealed many things. Russia spent billions of dollars on modernizing its military, but it turned out that it was to a large extent a fake. The fact that its supply chains did not function a few dozen miles from its borders is the best evidence of it. Moreover, the war elucidated that Russia's red lines are not constant and non-nuclear options are limited. On the other hand, the war in Ukraine showed unprecedented unity among European countries. The NATO members, Europe, and the USA started to adopt a common strategy over the Ukraine issue. However, things remain unpredictable. The declaration that Russia has already lost the war is premature. Some variables can still lead to a stalemate or a reversal of fortune. It is unlikely, but possible that NATO could lose patience with weapon shipments and seek economic expediency over long-term security, pushing for a pace unfavorable for Kyiv.
Furthermore, despite some challenges, Russia still has advantages in southern Ukraine. In Ukraine’s case, its morale is still high and Western weapons are still arriving. Besides, It is worth mentioning that the question of the nuclear force is still lingering, but this threat has been also diminished as NATO sent unequivocal signals about the devastating impact of the use of the nuclear weapon on Russia, while Russia’s nuclear menace was publicly condemned by other players such as China and India. It is also interesting that another issue regarding nuclear weapons is raised. Considering the serious shortcomings in Russia’s supply chains, how it might be believable that the well-known “Button” of Russia’s nuclear weapon will work if Putin presses it? Thus, overall Europe’s challenge now is to deal with Russia, and the big question that has been emphasized is the following: is a weak Russia something to fear?
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Whatever Russia's steps in the future, it is crucial that the West remains firm over the Ukraine issue. Despite some hesitations regarding the adoption of a strict policy towards Russia within the European Union, the unity among the European countries as well as between the EU and the USA will play a significant role in tackling Russia's aggression. The most important thing in this regard is that the West should retain steadiness in supplying Ukraine with appropriate weapons. Meanwhile, Europe must diminish its dependency on Russia's oil and gas as it will enable Europe to ensure its long-term security and more free space to adopt a more stringent policy toward Russia.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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New Year's Celebrations are not typical on Russian TV |
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New Year's Eve, which traditionally is given more attention than Christmas in Russia, was unusual for the Kremlin propaganda. Though it is still not legally permitted to call a war on Russia's brutal Ukraine invasion, a law that Putin himself broke in December, Russian information space finds it difficult to ignore that the country is fully participating in one. The New Year's Russian TV fare was a strange mixture of "let's party and let's win on the battlefield" – shortly after a musical performance on state TV, the Russian comedian, and host for the New Year special Yevgeny Petrosyan said: "My New Year's toast will be a bit unusual. During the past year, the West tried to destroy Russia. They didn't realize that in the composition of the world, Russia is the load-bearing structure." By referring to Putin’s favorite crude joke (like it or don't like it, it’s your duty, my beauty), Petrosyan then continued: "Yes, gentlemen, like it or not, Russia is enlarging."
Putin’s image was different as well – for the first time in history, in his address to the nation, Vladimir Putin was not posing in front of the Kremlin. This year, he was surrounded by people in combat uniforms – many, who have closely observed Putin’s New Year’s speech footage, have easily detected that, among those surrounding the 70-year-old potential war criminal, a woman has previously also been spotted in footage on a boat and at a church service with Putin. On his part, Putin used the address as a wartime rallying cry to Russians, in which he, again, called the Ukrainians "Nazis", and blamed the West for "wanting to destroy" Russia.
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Russian propaganda video forecasts that European will freeze in 2023 |
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The Russian propaganda machine continues producing ridiculous propaganda videos. This time, the Russian state broadcaster RT sent a Christmas message to Europeans. A video, which consists of three parts shows how an average European family spends its Christmas in the years 2021, 2022, and 2023. All goes well during Christmas 2021 – the family looks to be enjoying life, and the daughter is being gifted a hamster. In 2022, the family has no electricity and is forced to generate it by making the hamster run in the running wheel. But the year 2023 leaves the family in a desperate position, with no food to eat and no heating in the winter at all.
Russia’s claim that Europe will freeze without its natural gas supplies seems to be an exaggeration, though. Right now, 83.5% of EU gas storage is filled, with the cost of natural gas falling below pre-Ukraine-war prices. True, the EU will face a gas deficit in 2023, that could be as high as nearly 15 percent of its forecast demand, however, according to the International Energy Agency, with the measures currently being implemented and with immediately investing an additional 100 billion euros, Europe can easily meet its energy demands. Russia’s bid that the Europeans will refuse to support Ukraine due to the fear of freezing in the winter is therefore futile.
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Elita Khmelidze – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
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