Hungary "normalizes the situation" in the Middle East |
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- The arrival of the Iranian minister to Hungary
- Advanced economic cooperation
- What to do?
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Russia accuses Ukraine of executing more than 10 POWs |
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- Russian accusations
- What happened in Makiivka?
- What to do?
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Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Defending “rules-based international order” |
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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Russia says it does not hit civilian infrastructure, its propagandists say the opposite
Russian propagandist gives real reason why Russia invaded Ukraine
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Hungary "normalizes the situation" in the Middle East |
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The public division between Russian elites |
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On the 18th of November Seyed Ehsan Khandouzi, Finance and Economic Affairs Minster of Iran arrived in Hungary for an appointment with the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó. In this way, Hungary decided to renew economic cooperation with Iran. Szijjártó argued during the meeting that “it makes sense to start normalizing the situation with economic cooperation.” Hungarian minister believes that despite existing problems, the threat to global security could be reduced by "stopping as many conflicts as possible". To do that, Hungary would like to reintegrate Iran into the system of international cooperation.
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Advanced economic cooperation |
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Szijjártó while speaking about "big steps forward in terms of the stability of the entire situation in the Middle East" followed selfish economic and geopolitical interests of the country with absolute disrespect to the European Neighborhood. Later that day, Iran and Hungary signed a comprehensive cooperation document at the end of the third meeting of the two countries' Joint Economic Committee.
Two parties also signed three memorandums of understanding for cooperation in various agricultural fields including animal husbandry, health, and plant quarantine. In addition, the ministers did several political statements on the current and future trends of Iranian and Hungarian economic relations. They referred to a 55-percent increase in bilateral trade between Iran and Hungary by that date. Furthermore, Szijjártó did a statement to support Iran's right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes after signing the document. At the same time, the Iranian minister declared that the two countries planning for boosting the annual bilateral trade to €100 million. "Iran and Hungary are two countries with very similar standpoints in various economic, political, and cultural fields", Khandouzi said.
The same day during another meeting with delegates from Iranian companies in Hungary the two sides discussed the facilitation of visa issuance procedures for businesses. The Hungarian officials promised to settle some issues that the Iranian transportation fleet had for transiting through Hungary. Governors also established cooperation between a Hungarian bank and the Export Development Bank of Iran. Finally, Khandouzi did a very eloquent statement: "Over the last year, we proved that sanctions and pressures cannot isolate Iran, even though they have imposed some costs on us". In other words, that was a hidden proclamation of Iran's ability to circumvent sanctions and benefit from economic cooperation, which now became possible due to the will of the Hungarian political establishment.
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Despite the Russian large-scale invasion of Ukraine Hungary continues to maintain relations with Russia. While other European Union states demonstrate unity and resilience against Russian unprovoked and unjustified aggression as well as support Ukraine, Hungary threatened to block the continuation of some EU sanctions against Russia and did not want to join the joint aid package from the EU for 18 billion euros. Meanwhile, Iran is supplying Russian forces with kamikaze attack drones and is reportedly preparing to supply its ballistic missiles.
From this perspective, Hungarian policy regarding economic cooperation with Iran is unacceptable in terms of European Union membership and looks dramatically unfriendly to Ukraine. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine should call European Union to apply special economic measures against Hungary to make them respect the common European union values and foreign policy. Leaving such subversive activities from Hungary without a decent response, European Union puts its authority, unity, and solidarity at risk.
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Russia accuses Ukraine of executing more than 10 POWs |
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On November 18th, the Russian Defense Ministry accused Ukrainian soldiers of executing more than 10 Russian prisoners of war following the circulation of a video on social media purporting to be from the frontline. The Investigative Committee of Russia launched a criminal investigation. Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration of Ukraine Olga Stefanishyna said that Ukraine would investigate a video allegedly showing Ukrainian soldiers opening fire on captured Russian prisoners.
According to Stefanishyna, it is "highly unlikely" that the short redacted excerpts show what Moscow claims. Dmytro Lubinets, the Ukrainian parliament's Commissioner for Human Rights, said that Russians had committed a war crime by using the staged surrender of prisoners. In such a case, he argued they cannot be considered prisoners of war but those fighting. Lubinets didn't provide any further evidence. He stressed that retaliatory fire was not a war crime. On the contrary, those who want to take advantage of the protection of international law to kill should be punished.
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What happened in Makiivka? |
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The incident happened on November 12 in the village of Makiivka on the front line in the Luhansk region. The videoshows the Russian occupiers first leaving the building and lying on the ground, allegedly surrendering. Then one of them probably opens fire on the Ukrainian military. Next – the video is cut short.
At the same time, Russian Telegram channels distributed videos of dead Russian servicemen from the alleged same yard where the incident occurred. Part of the video shows that there was a provocation by the Russian military. One of the occupiers, who surrendered, instead of throwing a machine gun, tried to open fire from him in the direction of the Ukrainian military. The Armed Forces of Ukraine opened fire in response. The founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, Ruslan Leviev, confirmed this. He stressed that the soldier in black uniform, who opened fire, violated the norms of international law. “A military pretended that he was ready to surrender but opened fire,” said Ruslan Leviev. This war crime is called treachery.
This video can hardly be considered evidence - the maximum reason for initiating an investigation. Firstly, because the video is edited from fragments, so it is impossible to reproduce the entire plot, sequence, and causal relationships behind it. Secondly, the execution's authenticity, not its dramatization, has yet to be confirmed. And thirdly, the very fact of the "shooting" in the video is missing, and who carried it out is unknown. Currently, Ukrainian law enforcement officers and experts are studying the origin of the video. His authenticity has not been confirmed.
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International human rights organizations, Ukrainian law enforcement officers, and forensic experts should study the video materials in detail and investigate the incident. Ukraine adheres to the Geneva Conventions. In case of suspicion that some Ukrainian servicemen violate the rules and customs of war, an investigation is always carried out. And the perpetrators are brought to justice. This approach should be applied in the case of a shooting in Makiivka.
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Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Defending “rules-based international order” |
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Halifax International Security Forum |
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“The outcome of the war in Ukraine will help determine the course of global security in this young century.” This is how US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin framed the stakes of the conflict. This line was included in Austin’s keynote address at the Halifax International Security Forum, an annual meeting of high-level security experts and officials. Austin used the opportunity to take a broader perspective on the war in Ukraine. He places the conflict in a global, historical context and explores its potential ramifications. In his remarks, he gave his thoughts on how the conflict has and will shape the international system, and provided some insight into the current posture of US foreign policy.
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Austin took roughly the first half of his speech to reiterate familiar talking points about how Europe and NATO were responding to the war in Ukraine. He denounced Putin’s war of aggression as the most serious threat to “European security” in decades, and a “direct challenge” to the NATO alliance. He extended gratitude to the many allies who have been supporting Ukraine directly, and to those working to alleviate the economic and humanitarian blowback of the Russian invasion. Austin also made a point of highlighting the significant contributions of the US to the war effort, and the steps the US military has taken to bolster NATO.
It was in the second half of his remarks that Austin shifted to a long-term, global perspective of the conflict. The initial invasion, in addition to Russia's various violations of international law since then, represent an authoritarian challenge to standing international law around the norms of warfare and national sovereignty. Austin extolls this “rules-based international order” as “one of the towering achievements of human government.” Beyond territorial integrity and nuclear non-proliferation, Austin is alluding to the democratic and liberal values that serve as the foundation for this system. For him, the outcome of the war in Ukraine will be a referendum on whether these values are still relevant, and whether they can be resilient in the face of rising authoritarianism.
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Austin’s remarks focused heavily on the issues of sovereignty and international cooperation. Quoting President Biden, he argues that the invasion represents an existential threat to Ukraine, and is a reflection of Putin's conviction that it no longer has a right to exist. Alluding to the similarities between Taiwan and Ukraine, Austin names the PRC as a similar authoritarian threat. At least from an American perspective, the war in Ukraine is symbolic. Like proxy conflicts of the Cold War, it is the stand-in for a larger ideological competition. While the situations of Taiwan and Ukraine are distinct, they are similar enough for the outcome of the war in Ukraine to influence how policymakers and experts think about a potential annexation of the ROC (Taiwan).
Austin also reiterated the “ironclad” commitment of the US to “defend every inch of NATO territory." He delivered this speech just days after two Polish civilians were killed by a Russian-made missile on Polish soil. The initial reporting by AP claimed that Russian forces had launched the missile (based on a single, unnamed US intelligence source). The report was corrected hours later, but it seemed possible that Poland would invoke Article 5, with the potential of drawing all NATO allies into the war. The incident highlighted the risk involved in open conflict with an unpredictable Putin. With this reaffirmation, Austin at least signaled that the US was undeterred by recent events. At least in principle, they are committed to allies in even the most extreme circumstances.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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Russia’s prisoner population decreases dramatically |
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Since launching the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russian leaders have repeatedly claimed that the so-called “special military operation” goes “as planned.” Though time after time, the facts have proven the opposite. The Russian military, which deploys Iranian drones against Ukraine, is now suffering from a manpower shortage as well, leading its government to recruit inmates. During the two months, from September to November, Russia’s prisoner population had its largest decrease since at least 2010, however, neither the amnesty nor any other new legislation has been announced by the government.
According to the independent Russian news outlet Mediazona, Russia’s prisoner population has slid by 23,000 in recent weeks since Putin’s ally and Wagner PMC founder Evgeny Prigozhin started recruiting prisoners and offered commutation of prison sentences in exchange for mercenary service – “If you serve six months (in Wagner), you are free," he said in the leaked video footage that went viral in September. While Russian law does not allow such service, the decision to recruit inmates in the Wagner group, accused of war crimes and human rights abuses in Ukraine and other places, to some assessments, indicates that Russia is suffering from a critical shortage of combat infantry troops.
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Russia says it does not hit civilian infrastructure, its propagandists say the opposite |
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During the last several weeks, Russia intensified its rocket attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, leaving the country’s energy grid on brink of collapse, with millions of people now potentially facing life-threatening conditions in the winter. The Kremlin firmly maintains that these strikes are serving solely military purposes, and therefore will continue until Moscow’s military objectives are achieved. Western officials and military analysts, however, dispute this and say that the missile strikes have “little or no military purpose,” and constitute a war crime.
A confession on the issue came from Moscow itself – participating in a “Svaya Pravda” TV program on NTV channel, Russia’s State Duma member Boris Chernynish from late Vladimir Zhirinovsky's LDPR party said that the strikes against Ukraine's critical infrastructure are meant to express Russia's "holy hatred" towards Ukrainians, and prompt them to overthrow "Zelensky's Nazi government." Other participants of the TV program were quite straightforward as well, stating that freezing Ukrainian civilians will soon prompt their capitulation to Russia.
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Russian propagandist gives real reason why Russia invaded Ukraine |
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Russia has long maintained that the very purpose of carrying out what it falsely calls a “special military operation” is to denazify Ukraine and liberate the locals who, for eight years, have been living under the oppression of the “Kyiv regime.” This disinformation narrative has been successfully propagated by the Kremlin’s propaganda media for months. However, the state TV now seems to be speaking more and more plain language – a famous Russian war correspondent, Dmitry Steshin, recently explained that Russia had never invaded Ukraine to liberate anyone.
Talking about the real reason for the invasion, he said on a state-controlled TV channel Russia 1, that one cannot regard Ukrainians as “people with full morals and a normal thinking apparatus,” as, according to Steshin, Ukrainian people have built their identity on "the denial of everything that is Russian." It is precisely why Steshin believes that “Russia does not need to liberate anyone there.” According to him, “we must take what is ours and make them afraid to even think about breathing in the wrong direction.” However, seems like even such radical-minded propagandists feel pessimistic about Russia’s prospects to achieve these goals. The very Steshin fears that without clearly defined "national goals," President Vladimir Putin's current crusade will be in vain.
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This newsletter is supported by the European Cultural Foundation
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In collaboration with experts from Information Defense Hub
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Itai Abraham – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
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