Turkey sells goods to Russia for the needs of the Russian army |
|
|
|
- Russia-Turkey trade balance
- Turkey's support for Ukraine
- How to respond?
|
|
|
|
German political party AfD & its connection to Russia |
|
|
|
Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
|
|
|
- Russian propaganda fakes Mossad data on Ukraine's casualties
- Kadyrov blames Europe for not supporting Ichkeria – Putin's grip on his "foot soldier" weakens
- Solovyov calls on China, North Korea, and Iran to join the Russian army in Ukraine to fight their arch-rival United States far from their own borders
|
|
|
|
Dear readers,
In our latest issue which was distributed today at 1PM, links to sources were not included in the text due to a technical error. We apologize for that and we are sending you a corrected version which includes all the sources and links. It is very important for us to provide you with information and analysis which is well documented and sourced! We hope you will enjoy the new Kremlin Watch Briefing!
|
|
|
|
Turkey sells goods to Russia for the needs of the Russian army |
|
|
|
Russia-Turkey trade balance |
|
|
|
On February 3rd The Wall Street Journal reports that Turkish companies exported cars, electronics, spare parts, and other goods needed by the Russian military to Russia. "At least 13 Turkish firms exported a total of at least $18.5 million worth of items, including plastics, rubber items, and vehicles, to at least 10 Russian companies sanctioned by the U.S. for their role in Russia’s assault on Ukraine, the data show”.
Interestingly, according to the data reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the Turkish companies delivered at least three shipments of American-made goods to Russia. What is more, Turkish business circles also sent another $15 million in American-made elevators, electric generators, circuit boards, and other items to Russia, which was a violation of U.S. export controls and served to starve Russia of vital military equipment from March to October 2022. The author mentions companies that received Turkish equipment Russia's Tactical Missiles Corp., which produces weapons systems for the Russian fleet, and the company " Promtekhnologiya ", which manufactures rifles. The publication shows that Russia also received steering wheels for trucks and U.S.-made filters for engines from Turkey.
Previously, according to Bloomberg sources, Washington warned the authorities of Turkey and the United Arab Emirates that their support of economic and financial ties with Russia is hindering efforts to put pressure on Moscow. "US officials told Turkey to clamp down on a flow of goods to Russia. They warned their counterparts that tens of millions of dollars’ worth of export-controlled goods were reaching Russia and could be used by the defense industry to extend the conflict, the people said.” However, presidential and parliamentary elections are waiting for Turkey, which promises to be the most difficult for Erdogan during the entire almost 20-year term of his tenure as president. Bloomberg believes that Erdogan, seeking another term as president in elections slated for May, has sought financial support from Russia to help manage a turbulent time in the economy.
|
|
|
|
Turkey's support for Ukraine |
|
|
|
Turkey managed to develop economic contacts with Russia while supplying weapons to Ukraine. Turkish experts call this policy "pro-Ukrainian neutrality". Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, says Turkey's policy is "pro-Ukrainian, but not anti-Russian." "Turkey supports Ukraine militarily, it is neutral politically, but keeps relations with Russia open economically.” At the same time, The Wall Street Journal notes that Russia's war against Ukraine is pushing Turkey towards Russia. As the newspaper explains, economic cooperation with Russia is beneficial for President Erdogan for two reasons. First, it helps support the economy ahead of the important presidential and parliamentary elections. And secondly, by positioning himself as an indispensable mediator, the Turkish president can count on the fact that his position will strengthen among Western allies.
|
|
|
|
Turkey has deepened its economic and trade ties with Russia, which have benefited from a strong personal relationship between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. However, Erdogan has well-established ties with Kyiv too, and has sought to position Turkey as a mediator in the war. Turkish both sides policy does not help sufficiently any of them but undermined the position of the country on the international level. Being part of NATO Turkey should follow the union's obligations and respect the allies.
|
|
|
|
German political party AfD & its connection to Russia |
|
|
|
Steffen Kotré (AfD) is under criticism for appearing on a propagandist Russian talk show |
|
|
|
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party has garnered criticism due to the alleged close connections of two of its members, namely Member of Parliament Steffen Kotré and party chairman Tino Chrupalla, with Russia. Kotré's appearance on a talk show hosted by Vladimir Solovyov, a host recognized for propagating Russian ideology, sparked widespread condemnation with accusations of the AfD party's utilization for Russian propaganda purposes.
Kotré's previous statements on Russian aggression towards Ukraine and the alleged involvement of the West in the conflict have also attracted attention. In a speech delivered in the German Bundestag, he claimed Western complicity in the conflict and referred to biological weapon labs in Ukraine targeted towards Russia, which were widely criticized by AfD MEP Norbert Kleinwächter as "disgusting Putin propaganda." Additionally, Chrupalla's close ties with Russia, including meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lawrow have also been a subject of criticism. The fact that he has not met with Ukrainian ambassador Andriy Melnyk, whom he described as a "fierce political activist," further exacerbates the situation.
|
|
|
|
AfD and its relationship with Russia |
|
|
|
Recent developments in German politics have been rather unfortunate. The participation of some members of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Russian propaganda talk shows and their pro-Russian declarations have not contributed to a positive outcome. Steffen Kotré, a member of the European Parliament, made pro-Russian remarks on a talk show hosted by Vladimir Solovyov, where he suggested that German media outlets were distorting information to create anti-Russian sentiment among the German population. He also questioned Germany's arms supplies to Ukraine. Unfortunately, Kotré is not the only AfD member who has cultivated friendly ties with Russia since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict. For instance, the deputy chairman of AfD, Chrupalla, joined hands with the Russian ambassador to Germany to lay wreaths in commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad. Chrupalla then emphasized the need for de-escalation and a diplomatic resolution to the conflict and criticized the Federal Foreign Minister Baerbock for her allegedly "ill-advised" statement that Germany was at war with Russia.
German security authorities are also currently investigating links between the AfD and Moscow. Of particular interest is the association of the pro-Russian writer Vladimir Sergiyenko, who has close links to Moscow and co-founded an association in Chemnitz, which is active with former AfD members of the Bundestag. This association conducts pro-Russian propaganda and deliberately conceals its funding and resources. Donors to the organization can remain anonymous for donations up to 10 000 EUR and the funds could potentially come from Moscow. For example, this organization provides legal support to pro-Russian influencers facing trials in Germany for spreading hate and pro-Russian propaganda, or funds the legal services of individuals who fought for Russia in Ukraine and are being prosecuted for torture. The Berlin-based writer Serhijenko also frequently appears on a well-known propaganda talk show and has made controversial statements about the war in Ukraine.
These pro-Russian activities by the AfD are not unprecedented and reflect a trend of pro-Russian sentiment within the party. The actions of some top and rank-and-file AfD members raise questions about the funding and sources of the pro-Russian propaganda being conducted by the party and its associates. Based on the information that has been collected so far, it is known that some AfD members have received financing from Moscow through secret meetings or "humanitarian actions". These individuals are just a few examples of the pro-Russian members within the AfD, and it is only a matter of time before this faction becomes the majority in the party, transforming the AfD from a right-wing populist party to a right-wing extremist party with official ties to Russia.
|
|
|
|
What to do and how to use this information? |
|
|
|
The concern among German security officials and politicians regarding the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's pro-Russian stance is rising. The AfD's actions, including its cooperation with Russian intelligence services and support for Russian narratives, are not only unthinkable without the official support of the Putin regime, but also pose a threat to Germany's security interests. The AfD has been known for its close ties with Russia for several years now and has acted as a mouthpiece for the Russian leadership, thereby legitimizing Russian policies in the eyes of some. It also needs to be mentioned that security authorities in Germany have been increasingly concerned about foreign influence, particularly from Russia, targeting organizations and individuals who spread false information or act as spokespersons for other states. It needs to be mentioned that AfD serves as a group of "useful idiots" for Putin's - Russian leadership. We need to monitor their actions, and also the german Bundestag need to make more legal actions towards some of the AfD politicians, or at least the AfD party alone should make some steps against their pro-Russian MPs.
|
|
|
|
Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
|
|
|
Russian propaganda fakes Mossad data on Ukraine's casualties |
|
|
|
Fake reports on military losses in Ukraine went viral this week. Some pro-Russian and Russian-affiliated malign actors have recently spread the message that, according to the Turkish publication Hurseda Haber, which allegedly received anonymous data from Israeli intelligence, Russia has lost only 18,480 soldiers in Ukraine since February 24, while losses on the Ukrainian side have reached 157,000 (sic!). Moreover, according to the fake news, about 2000 NATO soldiers and instructors were killed in Ukraine.
However, the numbers about the loss of manpower and weapons on the side of Ukraine and Russia, as well as the claim about the death of NATO soldiers and instructors in Ukraine, are clearly inconsistent and do not correspond to reality. In fact, reports of Mossad publishing such statistics or providing them to a Turkish publication are not based on any factual evidence or data. On top of that, the original article from the Turkish publication does not indicate the author or the source of the information, it simply cites unsubstantiated numbers and mentions that these data are based on Israeli intelligence.
Exact losses are unknown, however, according to Norwegian Defense Minister Erik Kristoffersen, the losses of the Russian army - meaning killed and wounded - are in the range of 180,000, and the losses of the Ukrainian armed forces are up to 100,000. General Mark Milley of the US has also said that Russia alone has had more than 100,000 killed or wounded. Besides, not a single NATO member state has officially sent military personnel to participate in military operations in Ukraine in any way. Therefore, there have been no cases of killing military personnel subordinate to NATO on the territory of Ukraine.
|
|
|
|
Kadyrov blames Europe for not supporting Ichkeria – Putin's grip on his "foot soldier" weakens |
|
|
|
Notorious Kremlin-installed Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who calls himself Putin’s “foot soldier”, has recently accused European countries of lacking support for the unrecognised Ichkeria during the first and second Chechen wars. Kadyrov reacted to Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki comments – during an interview with a French news channel – that Chechnya "deserves independence”.
In his video address on Saturday Kadyrov said – "Where were you when we fought for Ichkeria, when we defended the interests of independence? Why didn't European states, including Ukraine, support us [then], and why have you suddenly decided to support a non-existent state?" ‘It was you who did not allow us to build our state’, he said.
Though such comments were unexpected from Kadyrov, who is a Kremlin-tied leader which has worked to recover relations with the Kremlin following the fall of the Soviet Union and has been empowered by the Kremlin patronage and propaganda, it proves that Putin’s grip on his allies might have weakened after the invasion.
|
|
|
|
Solovyov calls on China, North Korea, and Iran to join the Russian army in Ukraine to fight their arch-rival United States far from their own borders |
|
|
|
Russian invasion of Ukraine has clearly been Putin's most desperate measure, but his venture went so far that certain figures even among the Putin favourites have lost faith in Russia’s power to “defeat its long-rival NATO”.
In the search for help and hoping for foreign involvement in Ukraine on the Russian side, Kremlin’s top propagandist Vladimir Solovyov said that “Chinese and North Koreans should destroy NATO in Ukraine rather than wait for NATO to come to them”. He went even further, warning that “it's better for North Korea to face NATO in Ukraine than to wait for a war between North Korea and South Korea to break out and the Americans to rush in”.
While Russian pundits in the beginning of the invasion have been insisting that this is merely a special military operation against Ukraine’s Nazi regime, something that their army should have taken care of in a short period of time, considering their flawed military planning and poor results, it now seems that claiming that Russia is fighting against the broader West than Ukraine is better strategy for saving face.
|
|
|
|
Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
|
|
|
|
If you would like to give us feedback or suggestions, please contact Kremlin Watch project coordinator |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For comments. suggestions or media inquiries, please contact Kremlin Watch analyst |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
- You can support us by clicking to donate money via our website,
- transfer your money to our transparent bank account
2300405420/2010
- or simply by scanning the QR code within your
internet banking app.
|
|
|
|
|
|
SUBSCRIBE TO THIS NEWSLETTER |
|
|
|
|