Yehuda Lave is an author, journalist, psychologist, rabbi, spiritual teacher, and coach, with degrees in business, psychology and Jewish Law. He works with people from all walks of life and helps them in their search for greater happiness, meaning, business advice on saving money, and spiritual engagement.
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Scare Mongering about Deaths in September
Is the glass half empty or half full? The headline in the Jerusalem Post 10/29/20 on page 4 reads nearly 20% more died in September 2020 than 2019. As a start in the fear-mongering, the number is 18.6 which is nearly 19%, not 20%.
Next, the Population of Israel increased by 136,000 people from 2019 to 2020. The average death rate is 5.4 people per thousand per year so 5.4 times 136 is 734.4 people. If you divide that number by 12 (assuming an average death rate by year) you get 61.2 people
The story states “According to the report, some 4,036 people died this year, versus 3,403 last year – a difference of 18.6%”. If I add 3403 and 61 that comes to 3464. Now the true number is down to 16.5%
So if you do the proper figures comparing apples and apples, when you compare the accurate populations. This is just common sense. If you ask how many people died in September 2000 when the population was a million people less, you would have 5.4 times 1000 (a million is 1000 thousand) or 5,400 divided by 12 which equals 450 fewer deaths. Would we have a scaremongering headline that read 540 more people died in September 2020 than 2010? In addition, there is some variance each year, and some Septembers more people died. Is 572 more deaths really a significant variance?
The article states “So far, according to the latest numbers provided by the ministry, 2,483 people have died of COVID-19”. There is a lot of mixing of numbers, possibly on purpose to confuse people in the article. This is the entire number of covid deaths the whole year not in September.
“In October alone, between the first report disseminated by the ministry on October 1 and the morning report on October 28, 912 people had died of coronavirus – around 33 people per day. So at 33 people a day for 30 days in September, you have 990 people but the increase in deaths. The increase in deaths is 4036 less 3464 or 572. So you must have a decrease of other deaths of 990 minus 572 or a decrease in other causes of 418 people. Why doesn’t the headline scream “DECREASE IN DEATHS OF OTHER CAUSES!”
Finally, the article states “The ministry reported that 312,024 people have been diagnosed with the virus, meaning that 0.8% of those diagnosed have succumbed to the disease” Again a suspicious number. Just because 312,024 people have been diagnosed doesn’t mean that there are a lot more people that have not been diagnosed so this percentage is obviously high, even though it looks like it is more the way it is juxtaposed, but it is still less than 1%. In addition, there is no reference to how many of that 0.8% were elderly which raises the % a great deal. We know that the COVID is a real disease, but please don’t fear monger to make the matters worse.
Rabbi Yehuda Lave