Russia's missile terror could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine |
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Russia’s Ambassador to the UK admits that the Russian side too is committing the war crimes in Ukraine |
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The European Parliament recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism |
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Russia's missile terror could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine |
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On November 23, Russia launched another massive missile attack on Ukraine. The Russian invaders fired 70 cruise missiles of the X-101, X-555 types, and Kalibr, 51 of them were destroyed by air defense forces and means, according to the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Not only energy facilities were affected, but also residential buildings. The attack resulted in civilian deaths and a temporary blackout of all nuclear power plants, most thermal and hydroelectric power plants. Power transmission facilities were also damaged. Most of the territory of Ukraine was left without electricity and water. Due to a power surge in the common power grid, an emergency power outage occurred in many Moldovan settlements. Moldovan President Maia Sandu said that «Chisinau cannot trust the Russian regime, which kills some people and leaves others without light and heat.» The Ukrainian government has warned its international partners that it expects Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure to intensify in the coming days. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi called on Ukrainians to prepare for difficult weeks ahead as the Russians plan new terrorist attacks against energy facilities. On November 23, the United Nations Security Council held an urgent meeting on the Russian missile strike on Ukraine. The United States will provide $53 million to support Ukraine’s electrical system as it faces a barrage of attacks from Russia. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will increase its presence at all of Ukraine's nuclear power plants (NPPs), IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said.
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Since October 10, Russia has resorted to regular massive attacks by missiles and drones on civilian objects and critical infrastructure. On November 23, there was another wave of this terrorist campaign. In terms of damage, this shelling is on par with the attacks of October 10 and November 15. Such powerful shellings reduce Ukraine's ability to restore the energy system quickly, and the de-energization of nuclear power plants creates the risk of a nuclear disaster. In the history of the Ukrainian nuclear industry, this is the first and, it seems, not the last case of disconnection of all nuclear power units of Ukraine from the power system. Thus, Russia purposefully provokes accidents at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, blackmailing the world with a nuclear threat.
The Kremlin's goal is a man-made and humanitarian disaster in Ukraine. With such methods of terror, the Russian leadership seeks to persuade Kyiv to negotiate and justify its failures on the battlefield. Russian authorities have confirmed that rocket attacks are a tactic to impose talks on the Ukrainian authorities, as recently stated by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Russian war criminals' destruction of energy facilities is also accompanied by Russian information and psychological operations to intimidate civilians and provoke dissatisfaction among Ukrainians with their power. The purpose of such operations is to sow discord within the country and provoke a new wave of refugees to the EU. Despite all these threats, Ukraine is restoring its electricity supply and preparing for further rocket attacks. The Points of Invincibility have started operation.
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The frequency of massive missile attacks on Ukraine is approximately weekly. This is the period that state services and the civilian population must prepare for the next blow. Obviously, Ukraine alone cannot cope with challenges of this scale. The assistance of the Western Allies, in this case, is vital. The priority is the need for generators and modern air defense systems. In parallel with this, it is necessary to strengthen the delivery of heavy weapons for the Ukrainian army to push back the invaders on the battlefield. Russia must be even more isolated at the political and diplomatic level by recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism. In addition, it also needs a decisive step of the democratic states to create an International Tribunal against the Kremlin's top leadership.
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Economic sanctions, international corporate withdrawal from Russia, and wartime restrictions have seriously disrupted Russia’s IT industry. In the past few months since the invasion of Ukraine began, the workforce of many tech companies have shrunk as employees quit their jobs and left the country. The mass exodus has left Russia with a IT labor shortage of roughly 170,000, according to their Ministry of the Interior. As the war in Ukraine places increasing pressure on the domestic economy, some firms are even attempting to shift their entire operations out of the country.
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Firms and Professionals Flee |
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OK Russians, a Russian NGO that has positioned itself in opposition to the war, conducted a survey of around 2,000 Russian citizens who had emigrated since the invasion began in February. They found that IT professionals were one of the groups most likely to leave. There are many reasons why: these workers were some of the most confident in their ability to find a new position or continue working remotely, and they tendedto be “more opposition-minded than the general public.” This is not to mention the forces pushing the general population away, like the military draft or stronger censorship.
Probably the biggest contributing factor, however, is the economic fallout of the invasion of Ukraine. In 2021, Russia’s tech industry contributed nearly 10% of total GDP. It has become one of the hardest hit sectors of the economy. The United States and many of Ukraine’s NATO and EU allies have imposed harsh sanctions and export controls on Russia, restricting their access to certain strategic technologies. Partly in response to these economic measures, and partly capitulating to political pressure, a whole host of international corporations have relocated their Russian operations: Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Intel, SAP, Cisco Systems, Adobe and Nokia.
Cut off from foreign investment and technology, many domestic firms are struggling to maintain their workforce and continue operations as normal. Though its parent company is based overseas, Yandex is Russia’s biggestIT firm, boasting the country's most popular web browser and a number of other services. In order to get ahead of the worst consequences of the war in Ukraine, the company is “restructuring” and considering moving its most important projects out of Russia. This has the potential to be another high-profile, significant blow to the industry, and the national economy.
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What this Means for the Russian Economy |
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With tech employees leaving the country and economic sanctions cutting off most foreign capital and technology, Russia’s IT industry will shrink significantly. Given the role this sector plays in its domestic economy, it will continue to suffer in the “war of economic attrition.” The country has a weakened position in the trade still available to it, domestic production will continue to stagnate, and the scarcity of imported goods will worsen.
The consequences will not just be material, but political and ideological as well. Putin and top Kremlin officials have long touted Russia’s technological sovereignty. This image of self-sustainability and independence is more about legitimizing Putin’s regime and burnishing its image, as opposed to articulating an actual policy goal, but economic pressures are making this facade increasingly difficult to main
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Russia’s Ambassador to the UK admits that the Russian side too is committing the war crimes in Ukraine |
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In an interview in BBC Newsnight, Russian Ambassador to the UK Andrey Kelin, appeared to admit that his country is committing war crimes in Ukraine. Kelin said this, however, only after underscoring that Russia “nails all the evidence of Ukrainian committed war crimes.” Asked whether he indeed meant what he said on the Russian side, the Ambassador reverted to favorite position – denial – replying to BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire that he had not seen such evidence.
Since the start of the invasion, the Kremlin propaganda has been busy with denying all the accusations made against the way Russia has been conducting its brutal and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine. Would it be the Bucha Massacre or the Kramatorsk Railway Station bombing – the Russian side has denied any responsibility, instead claiming that the Ukrainians have either doctored photos/video materials depicting the situation on the ground, or staged false flag operations. The Kremlin has continuously denied committing other atrocities as well, including the notorious bombing of the Mariupol Maternity Hospital. The UN commission in October concluded, though, that it is the Russian side, that is “responsible for the vast majority of the violations identified, including war crimes.”
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Putin holds a highly choreographed event with handpicked cadre of mothers of Russian soldiers |
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Since October, groups of mothers of mobilized Russian soldiers have organized dozens of protests across the country and openly complained that their sons are being sent to the front ill-equipped, without proper training and called the authorities to ensure they had appropriate weapons, clothing, shelter and food rations. To calm the public anger over mobilization, Vladimir Putin held a carefully staged public meeting days ahead of Russian “Mothers day”, with a handpicked cadre of mothers of Russian servicemen who had been sent into the battle.
However, none of the 17 women attending the televised event were critical of the war against Ukraine or concerned about the dangers the Russian troops faced. It appeared that Putin simply ignored the complaints of ordinary mothers and chose the women with ties to the Kremlin. Researchers have identified several women attending the meeting; among them were a former government official, mother of a senior military and police official from Chechnya, and women actively involved in the work of state-sponsored pro-war NGOs. One woman from the meeting, Olesya Shigina, an ultra-conservative Russian poet, film-maker and activist, has been a long-time Kremlin supporter – she recently even travelled to Donbas and directed a pro-war film. "We share your pain," Putin told a group of mothers and praised their sons for defending “Novorossiya”. The hypocritical Russian president further warned the mothers not to trust the news media and the internet - “There are many fakes, cheating, lies there”, he said.
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Russian propagandists lose hopes that Ukraine can be defeated through conventional weapons |
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In the aftermath of successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kharkov and Kherson, and Russia’s inability to bend Ukraine to its will despite attacks on energy structure in the cold winter, the Kremlin propagandists seem to have grown increasingly worried that, perhaps, Ukraine cannot be militarily defeated. Both, inside and outside Russia, Kremlin propaganda actors struggle to come up with new justifications, as to why has taken it so long to finish the “special military operation.”
In a recent episode of Vladimir Solovyov’s propaganda program on Russia 1 TV channel, Solovyov can be seen extremely desperate to scare the West into stopping its support to Ukraine, this time, employing nuclear threats. “Our logic is simple: If we have weapons that secure total victory, it would be strange not to use them?! Otherwise, why did we even make them?!” - he insisted. Fellow propagandists, though, can be seen to be more reserved when hearing the nuclear rhetoric. Some of them harshly disagreed with Solovyov, stating that according to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, Moscow can resort to nuclear weapons when the statehood is threatened. Solovyov and other propagandists further debated whether losing control on newly-annexed Ukrainian territories should be counted as such.
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The European Parliament recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism |
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On November 23, the European Parliament recognized Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, Reuters informs. Members of the European Parliament said Moscow's military strikes on civilian targets such as energy infrastructure, hospitals, schools and shelters violated international law. A day earlier, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly called for the creation of a special international tribunal to punish Russian criminals and recognized the Russian Federation as a terrorist state. The decision was supported by all 30 member states of the Alliance.
The relevant resolution was supported by 494 deputies 58 voted against it, and another 44 abstained. The adopted resolution has a recommendatory nature, but in fact, that was an important sign from the European community to demonstrate zero tolerance and unacceptance for Russian military escalation, especially attacks against civilian infrastructure. In future this particular decision will correct the foreign policy of the European Union countries in relation to Russia. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already welcomed this decision. According to him, Russia "needs to be isolated at all levels and brought to justice in order to put an end to its long-term policy of terrorism in Ukraine and the world."
The Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly called to recognize Russia and Belarus as state sponsors of terrorism, and the Russian Armed Forces as a terrorist organization. In October, the US Congress introduced a bill on recognizing the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism. Then, the US State Department explained that recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism would mean that the US may have to expand its sanctions far beyond certain sectors of the Russian economy. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has so far refused to list Russia despite resolutions in both chambers of Congress urging him to do so. Some experts say the move will increase pressure on the Kremlin and make any relationship with Russia virtually impossible for American citizens. Meanwhile, on October 13, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) approved a resolution calling Russia a terrorist regime. On October 18, the Parliament of Estonia also approved a statement in which it recognized the Russian regime as terrorist and condemned the annexation of the territories of Ukraine. And on November 16, the lower house of the Czech parliament adopted a resolution calling the current Russian regime terrorist. Three more parliaments have so far designated Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, according to the European Parliamentary Research Service: Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. Moscow reacted angrily to the European Parliament decision. "I propose designating the European Parliament as a sponsor of idiocy," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote on Telegram.
The adoption of a series of the resolutions on recognizing Russia as a state sponsor terrorism of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, PACE and now of the European Parliament together can lead to the decision of the United States to include Russia in the list of state sponsors of terrorism, which will have appreciable political and economic consequences for Russia. As the adopted resolutions on Russia can seriously affect the politics of Washington in the future, the Ukrainian government should continue to work on convincing the US in adopting such a resolution. The U.S. State Department currently names four countries - Cuba, North Korea, Iran and Syria - as state sponsors of terrorism, meaning they are subject to a defense export ban and financial restrictions.
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This newsletter is supported by the European Cultural Foundation
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In collaboration with experts from Information Defense Hub
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Itai Abraham – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
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