04. 05. 2023

• Putin announces plans to support African countries with nuclear technology & highlights Egypt as a key partner          
  
• Russia and Egypt: A Growing Partnership in Military, Trade, and Nuclear Energy           
• How to respond?
  

• The Kremlin continues the repression of the dissent      
  
• How does the new legislation work?   
• What to do?    
  

• McCarthy Calls for Russia to Leave Ukraine       
  
• McCarthy’s Statement Comes as New Aid Is Announced    
• What to do?    
  

• Russia's embassy in the United Kingdom stated, that the transfer of depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine prepares Ukraine for the role of a “radioactive graveyard”     
  
• Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs stated, that the urgent admission of Ukraine to the EU will prove that the goal of the association is to drag in more territories.     
  
• Russian media claim, that Ukraine has admitted the defeat of its combat-ready units and professional military personnel.  
  

On March 20, 2023, an international parliamentary conference "Russia-Africa in a multipolar world" was held under the auspices of the State Duma of the Russian Federal Assembly. During this conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the partnership between Russia and African countries has gained momentum and surpassed the previous level. He further added that Russia will continue to support African countries in the production of electricity. According to the Kremlin, Russia will offer new environmentally friendly technologies, especially in the field of nuclear energy. Rosatom is already building a nuclear power plant in Egypt and plans to expand its involvement in the development of national energy systems on the African continent. Russia also offers 100% financing for some nuclear projects in African countries. Putin also stressed, among other things, that one of Russia's biggest partners is Egypt.

Egypt's first real interaction with Russia in modern history, according to analyst Tarek Osman, was not until the end of the 19th century. At that time, the Ottoman Empire was a mutual player between Egypt and Tsarist Russia, and both countries were essentially enemies of the Ottoman Empire. There were two dynamics in the past in Egypt's thinking towards Russia that forms today's views. The first was that Russia was largely weakening the Ottoman Empire (Turkey) and the Suez Crisis of 1956 was another significant milestone and dealt a severe blow to the West. Russia then subsequently became involved in the Syrian War, investing heavily in it. Syria is also strategically important to Egypt, so cooperation between these two countries has strong roots throughout the region.

The bilateral ties between Russia and Egypt have exhibited an upward trajectory, particularly since the 2013 upheaval that resulted in the overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi. The ascendancy of Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi as the President of Egypt in 2014 has fostered a close relationship between him and Vladimir Putin. Moreover, Russia's expanding footprint and sway in the area have conferred upon it a prominent role. Additionally, the convergence of views between Putin and Sisi is predicated on their shared antipathy towards fundamental democratic precepts and human rights, which manifests in a preference for employing coercive measures against political adversaries, without regard for the attendant repercussions.

Egypt has been accorded a place of eminence on Russia's register of regional priorities, due to the manifold benefits it provides to Moscow, both in terms of strategic and commercial considerations. Moreover, Egypt serves as a crucial link between Russia and Saudi Arabia, a country that extends substantial backing to Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. Additionally, Russia and Egypt are aligned on the same side of the divide in the ongoing conflict in Libya, alongside their mutual censure of Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army and the House of Representatives. The offensive launched in Tripoli in late 2019 and early 2020 was predominantly spearheaded by the Wagner Group's contingent of mercenaries.

As a testament to working cooperation, Sisi and Putin signed a comprehensive partnership agreement in 2018. The agreement covers military, security, trade, and economic aspects of cooperation. Subsequently, another comprehensive agreement was ratified in 2020, guaranteeing regular visits at the level of presidents and foreign and defence ministers. It is important to note that the agreement is valid for ten years and will be 'automatically renewed for further five-year periods unless either party notifies and explains in writing through diplomatic channels the reason for its cancellation. Ties are also expanding in the field of education, with Cairo accepting an offer to teach Russian as a second language in Egyptian schools and universities.

Russia holds the distinction of being the preeminent source of grain imports to Egypt, and agricultural produce comprises almost 80% of Egyptian exports to Russia. Consequently, Egyptians are currently contemplating augmenting financial linkages with Russia. This would have the corollary effect of enhancing the tourist influx by enabling Russian visitors to avail themselves of the Mir ruble payment mechanism. If Egypt endorses this measure, it would enable ruble-denominated revenues from Russian tourists to be employed for settling import bills from Russia. Notwithstanding, the Western sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as a downturn in tourism, could potentially redound to Egypt's advantage.

Outside the military sphere, the most important Russian project in Egypt is the El Dabaa nuclear power plant. Russia's Rosatom was reportedly due to start work on construction in late 2021. However, the actual results are very vague. Russia has given out such contracts and promises for nuclear power plants all over Africa, and given the current Russian invasion of Ukraine and the need to save money, it makes it highly unlikely that the Russians will invest billions in African countries out of goodwill. The El Dabaa project is also vulnerable to the risk of sanctions because of Russia's actions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

Taking into consideration the current situation, the Western powers have no choice but to try to promote democracy in the region and in Egypt as a whole. At the same time, decisions must be taken that would consider imposing sanctions on Egypt itself, given the increasingly strong cooperation with Vladimir Putin's terrorist regime. At the same time, the West should encourage regional cooperation. The most important way forward is for African countries to cooperate. Developing relationships is essential if the continent is not to be dominated by the interests of other global powers, as is happening today with China and Russia who are active in the African territory.

On April 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree regarding the possible deportation of residents of the occupied territories who rejected Russian citizenship and "pose a threat to its national security." Previously, the Russian Federation Council approved three bills on April 26 which allowed the deprivation of Russian citizenship for similar "threatening" activity. The residents of the Russian-occupied territories and Russia could be deported as "foreigners" or lose their newly obtained Russian citizenship in case of dissatisfaction with the political regime, and to be dispossessed after.

Putin's deportation decree applies to the residents of the temporarily occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions who do not wish to receive Russian citizenship. The order of the document also applies to the residents of these temporarily occupied territories who left for the Russian Federation but want to keep their Ukrainian citizenship. Such persons will be considered foreigners in Russia and can be deported from the country if they "create a threat to its national security." In particular, if they advocate "forcible change of the foundations of the constitutional order of the Russian Federation" or "plan or finance terrorist attacks or extremist crimes."

According to the Russian Federation Council’s bills, the acquired Russian citizenship could be lost for committing several crimes from the Criminal Code as well as simply based on the conclusion of the FSB (Federal Security Service of Russia). And those who have not fulfilled several obligations to the country will not be able to voluntarily renounce Russian citizenship. For example, duties related to military service can be classified as such. The Russian government came up with repressive legislation with a wide possibility to deport everyone as a foreigner, especially those who do not agree with the policy of the Russian leadership. ISW believes that the Kremlin is likely setting numerous conditions for domestic crackdowns to give Russian officials carte blanche in prosecuting anyone perceived to be against Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s war in Ukraine.

At the same time, on the Russian-controlled territories of Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, the passportization processes intensified. On March 17 of this year, reportedly, in the temporarily captured city of Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region, residents can receive payments only if they have Russian passports. And in the occupied territory of the Kherson region, the Russians are threatening the local population with illegal violent actions for the lack of Russian passports. In April, the occupiers began threatening residents of the Kherson region with deportation and confiscation of property if they did not agree to issue a Russian passport by June 1. The Ukrainian government does not have a common vision of taking Russian passports and calls to escape from the occupied territories.

The newly adopted decree and bills by the Kremlin make the people on the occupied territories quite vulnerable to Russian repression. Both residents who received the Russian passport and who did not could be persecuted by the Russian security agencies and forcibly deported in case of any whispers or rumours. The Kremlin will continue to oppress the dissent and promote censorship on the occupied territories. The Ukrainians should follow the government's call to leave the occupied territories. The International Criminal Court (ICC) should warn the Russian side about the responsibility for the forced deportations of Ukrainians.

During a press conference in Israel, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy called on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine and immediately halt its “killing of children.” This comes as McCarthy further distances himself from members of the Republican party who have announced their opposition to additional aid for Ukraine. Vehemently rejecting claims that he did not support sending additional weapons and aid to Ukraine, McCarthy responded “I vote for aid to Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine.” This affirmation would be followed by a blistering response to the Russian journalist, “I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine, I do not support your killing of the children either… you should pull out”

McCarthy’s comments come as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reflects on her visit to Ukraine during the final days of her speakership, “There is a fight in the world now between democracy and autocracy, its manifestation at the time is in Ukraine.” Her unusual and historic visit to Ukraine during the initial days of the war has been followed by a growing list of congressional and other U.S. officials who have journeyed to Ukraine to affirm the U.S. commitment to Ukraine. Echoing the words of McCarthy and the congressional delegation in Israel, Pelosi brought attention to the strong bipartisan support for Ukraine that has continued under the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, “Support for Ukraine has been bipartisan and bicameral, in both houses of Congress by both parties, and the American people support democracy in Ukraine,”

The comments from McCarthy come as a noticeable shift from earlier stances where he expressed the Republicans would not write "blank checks" for Ukraine. His shift to confirming he will continue to vote for additional aid comes as divisions within the Republican party leadership over Ukraine aid continue to deepen. Most notably, both former U.S. President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is anticipated to compete for the Republican nomination during next year's election cycle, have expressed their opposition to further aid. However, in March, DeSantis attempted to walk back his stance on Ukraine, claiming his aid comments were mischaracterized.

Further emphasizing this shift away from McCarthy’s initial opposition to continue sending aid to Ukraine, U.S. officials have announced another aid package worth around $300 million in aid. Included in the package are an enormous amount of artillery rounds, howitzers, and air-to-ground rockets among other weapons as Ukraine’s spring offensive against Russia nears. Ukrainian officials have declared the final preparations for an offensive have been complete and ammunition is being stockpiled along their supply lines. This will be the 37th package from the Pentagon to be sent to Ukraine and comes as Russia has ordered production of weaponry to double.

McCarthy's statements in Israel should not be the only way he shows that his commitment is genuine and an actual shift in tone from late 2022. To show his commitment is accurate he must undertake at least two additional steps that show his words were not a political stunt. First, Speaker McCarthy should follow in the footsteps of other senior U.S. and congressional officials and arrange a visit to Ukraine. Not only would this show solidarity, but also would reassure any concerns he may have expressed in the past regarding how the funds and weapons we have provided. Second, he should propose an additional aid package that he has drafted with Republicans and Democrats. Not only would this confirm his claim that he will vote for aid, but he is willing to go a step further and propose aid packages himself. These are the minimum steps that could be taken to show that these remarks were not a political stunt.

Commenting on the news about the transfer of depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine, Russia's embassy in the United Kingdom said, that the West has assigned Ukraine not only the role of an anti-Russian military training ground but also of a radioactive "burial ground" - with all the ensuing grave consequences for the health of residents and the environment in the region. Russia's embassy also called on the UK authorities not to shift the responsibility to the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the transfer of "toxic" ammunition.

The goal of this statement is to present Western military aid to Ukraine as dangerous to health and the environment, at the same time creating the image of Ukraine as a victim of the West’s foreign policy.

Moscow is worried not about the toxicity of the projectiles, but their penetrating ability. According to military experts, projectiles with depleted uranium is a standard ammunition used by many armies of the world, including the Russian Armed Forces. The high level of armour-piercing ability makes this munition an effective tool for combating armoured vehicles. In terms of environmental impact, after the explosion of depleted uranium projectile, the level of radiation is so minimal, that it is barely detectable.

During a press conference in New York as a part of Russia's chairmanship of the UN Security Council, Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov stated, that the admission of Ukraine to the EU as a matter of urgency will prove that the purpose of the association is a geopolitical game to drag in new territories. According to Lavrov, pursuing anti-Russian policy gives countries a very good chances of being included in the Union.

Such a narrative, made by Russian authorities, is aimed to compromise the credibility of the EU accession criteria and European neighbourhood policy to create an impression that the EU grants membership to candidate countries based on subjective preferences as well as pursues expansionist foreign policy.

In this case, Russia's statements are unfounded, since there are clearly stated criteria for joining the EU, also known as Copenhagen criteria, which all candidate countries must satisfy to become a member state. They include guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities, a functioning market economy and the ability to take on the obligations of membership. Furthermore, the EU accession process takes place only through the prescribed legislative procedures and by the competent institutions, regardless of the urgency matter.

Russian media, concerning the Commander of the Ukrainian troops in the Kharkiv region, General Serhii Melnyk, disseminated a statement about the defeat of the Ukrainian army. Quoting Melnyk out of context, the pro-Kremlin media stated that the combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been destroyed, and the professional military has been put out of action.

The manipulative article in the Russian media is based on an interview of General Melnyk, with the Spanish newspaper El País. The general stressed that the Ukrainian troops were facing a colossal challenge since Ukraine needs a large amount of not only equipment and ammunition but also military personnel because the soldiers on the front line require more frequent rotations. The phrase about the need for more frequent rotations of Ukrainian defenders was taken by Russian media out of context and used to form the narrative about the defeat of professional Ukrainian soldiers to demonstrate the successful advancement of Russian troops in Ukraine while emphasizing the weakness and incompetence of the Ukrainian army.

After the appearance of this article in the Russian media, Melnyk clarified his words, stating that his message was that the Ukrainian army needs trained personnel for the effective de-occupation of Ukraine.

Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko –  Skylar Young - Danylo Stonis

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