Last week's events concerning the pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign

LAST WEEK RECAP

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TOPICS OF THIS WEEK

EU foreign ministers agree on new sanctions over Navalny's imprisonment, but with mostly weak and symbolically impact.

Estonian intelligence services' annual report shines a spotlight on Russian foreign policy.

Biden administration adds a layer of Nord Stream II sanctions.

The US Government's investigation into the SolarWinds hack continues.

Tale as old as time: Russia revitalises NATO narratives.

Good Old Soviet Joke

What’s the definition of a Russian string quartet?

A Soviet orchestra back from a US tour.

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Policy & Research News

EU foreign ministers agree on new sanctions over Navalny’s imprisonment, but with mostly weak and symbolical impact

EU foreign ministers agreed on additional sanctions in response to the imprisonment of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in a meeting on Monday, February 22. Initial reports suggest four high-ranking Russian officials will be targeted with entry bans to the EU and asset freezes. If approved by the European Council, this will be the first time the EU deploys the EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime to confront international human rights abuses. Russia’s ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, commented that Russia is “ready to respond” to any “illegitimate unilateral restrictive measures.” Still, the proposal is relatively conservative – even toothless according to some like Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau – and unlikely to unnerve Moscow. It ultimately reflects divergent interests within the EU. Speaking in Brussels on Monday, Navalny surrogates Leonid Volkov and Ivan Zhdanov argued that Putin is not a reliable partner in international affairs and expressed their frustration with EU indecisiveness and French President Emmanuel Macron’s rapprochement with Russia specifically.

Meanwhile, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell used assertive rhetoric on Monday, stating that “Russia is in a confrontational course with the European Union” and citing its failure to meet international commitments. Most recently, on February 17 the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), part of the Council of Europe, of which Russia is a member, published a ruling that called for Navalny’s release. Russia has complied with ECHR rulings in the past. However, this time Russia’s Minister of Justice, Konstantin Chuychenko, has appeared reluctant, calling the judgement a “clear and gross interference” in Russian internal affairs. Constitutional amendments adopted in 2020 stipulate that Russian law takes precedence over international agreements. If Russia rejects the ECHR ruling on this basis, the country will potentially be in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights.  

Estonian intelligence services’ annual report shines a spotlight on Russian foreign policy

The sixth annual International Security and Estonia report from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service (Välisluureamet, or EFIS) was published last week, offering a thorough and insightful analysis of Russian foreign and domestic security policy and the threat presented to both Estonia and wider Europe. In discussing Russian foreign policy, the report made the surprising move of turning Russia’s oft-repeated ‘great power prerogative’ narrative on its head. Rather than justifying Russian domination of its regional neighbourhood, the report argues that Russian ‘leadership’ has failed to encourage stability or economic development in the former USSR. The preoccupation with ensuring Kremlin ruling elite control has meant systematically sabotaging economic reforms in its region of influence, with particularly severe consequences for Belarus going forward as outlined in the report.

Another highlight of the report is the Russian expectation that COVID-19 will weaken Western unity to Russia’s advantage. The EFIS assessment is that the pandemic has not changed Russian strategy towards the West, and the report argues that 2021 will see Russian influence operations centred around promoting Russian-made (and discrediting Western-made) COVID-19 vaccines in order to create and deepen divisions in Western societies. The report also discusses in detail the psychological operations run by Russian special services such as the GRU, as well as increasingly sophisticated threats presented by deepfake technology.

Considering Estonia’s geopolitical situation, it is no surprise that the report deals primarily with Russia. Despite this, the comparatively shorter section on Chinese influence seemed to generate the most media interest last week –– especially the warning that collaboration with China’s foreign policy doctrine will lead to “a silenced world dominated by Beijing”. Unfortunately, such coverage quickly shifted the spotlight to the Chinese Embassy’s denunciation of the report, in turn giving easy soundbites to Russian disinformation outlets covering the story with an interest in dismissing the entire report as ‘hearsay’. Given how much noise the Chinese representation in Tallinn have made about the report, the complete lack of acknowledgement of the report from the Russian consulate so far is noteworthy. In fact, Russian newswire services last week failed to mention that the report concerns Russia at all, focusing only on Chinese official reactions (note the following publications reporting identical stories sourced from Sputnik News Service’s newswire). While it would be conjecture to posit Russian-Chinese coordination on this story, the Chinese overreaction has at least allowed Russia to pretend that the report doesn’t primarily concern them.

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US Developments

Biden Administration Adds Layer of Nord Stream 2 Sanctions

The new sanctions are a duplicate of existing sanctions previously imposed by the Trump administration on the vessel Fortuna and its owner, KVT-RUS. The sanctions, announced in a report to Congress on February 19, were immediately criticized by Republican lawmakers, who voiced their concerns that the Biden Administration has failed to impose sanctions on additional targets. The top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Jim Risch (R-ID), stated that he is “deeply troubled and disappointed by the State Department’s report on Nord Stream 2 activities and their decision to forgo additional sanctions on other entities involved in its construction. Congress has passed multiple bipartisan laws regarding this project and specifically broadened the mandatory sanctions to include the types of pipe-laying activities occurring right now. The administration’s decision to ignore these activities demands an immediate explanation.”

The US Government’s Investigation into the SolarWinds Hack Continues

Anne Neuberger, the newly-announced Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber and Emerging Technologies, addressed reporters in a press briefing last week, stating that it will take time to uncover further details of the hacking attack. Meanwhile, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, appeared on CBS’ Face the Nation, stating that the US will respond to the suspected Russian hacking within “weeks, not months,” adding that the “response will include a mix of tools seen and unseen. And it will not simply be sanctions because […] a response to a set of activities like this require[s] a more comprehensive set of tools.” These statements come as the Senate Intelligence Committee will hold a hearing on the SolarWinds attack, with testimony expected from Sudhakar Ramakrishna, the CEO of IT group SolarWinds, Microsoft President Brad Smith, FireEye CEO Kevin Mandia and CrowdStrike President and CEO George Kurtz.

Kremlin's Current Narrative

Tales as Old as Time: Russia Revitalises NATO Narratives

On the 18th of February, NATO defence ministers concluded their second day of meetings, where they discussed NATO’s missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, burden-sharing and the NATO 2030 initiative. In an end-of-meeting press conference, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned, “we need to demonstrate the strength of the transatlantic bond, not only in words but also in deeds.” The cautious optimism that was so evident in the press conference has not been welcomed by the Kremlin.

Russian officials reacted quickly to the NATO conference, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko plainly suggesting that NATO exploits the idea of a Russian threat to improve cohesion. He declared, “it is obvious for us and I think it is obvious for all today that the factor of the so-called threat from the East is exploited, first of all, to keep the NATO unity that has been yielding serious cracks lately.” The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov approached the issue of NATO from an entirely different angle.

Peskov provided reasons for what he described as the increasing intensity of Russian actions. He claimed that as NATO remained in close proximity to the Russian border, Russia was being forced to protect itself. This narrative was reinforced by the Russian Ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, who seemed to claim that “NATO is looming over our border.”  NATO drills have elicited a similar response.

With NATO providing a robust response to Russia’s military build-up in the Black Sea, drills conducted by NATO members in the same area have been ongoing. In response to the drills, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova argued, “anyone can see that the exercise has a clear anti-Russia push,” before asserting that such actions threatened peace and stability. Meanwhile, state-backed Russian media mobilized to underpin these narratives.

One RT headline read, “NATO’s expanding role hides the reality of a US empire in decline,” in a bid to undermine the organisation. While Sputnik has led with, “NATO’s Mission Impossible,” claiming that NATO is seeking to find a purpose for its existence. In truth, these diversionary narratives have always done little to rationalize Russia’s actions and serve only to deepen the rift between themselves and the rest of the international community.

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Kremlin Watch is a strategic program of the European Values Center for Security Policy, which aims to expose and confront instruments of Russian influence and disinformation operations focused against the liberal-democratic system.

For comments. suggestions or media inquiries, please contact the Head of the Kremlin Watch Program Veronika Víchová at veronika.vichova@europeanvalues.cz 

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