02. 02. 2023

• New Russian offensive   
  
• Russian resources   
  
• How to respond?

• German perspective   
  

• Are Leopards 2 a significant help?

• What to do?

• The Western-made tanks cause mixed reactions among Russian propaganda mouthpieces
  
• Russian propaganda journalists and pundits call for using nuclear weapons against the West
  
• Two-thirds of EU citizens approve of banning state-owned Russian media from broadcasting in the EU

On January 27, Bloomberg reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive on Ukraine, which may begin as early as February or March. Putin still believes that Russia will be able to win because the country is ready to lose more people and has more resources. Furthermore, Russia wants to demonstrate that it can regain the initiative even though it has lost it for several months.

However, according to Bloomberg interlocutors, it is only a temporary truce that would leave Russia in control of the occupied territories. Moscow needs this to buy time to restore its strength. However, hoping that Kyiv and its partners will agree to such a truce is a bad idea, the publication notes. It is also not yet known whether Russia has the resources for a new major offensive, even after mobilizing an additional 300,000 troops last fall. Bloomberg also writes that the Russian president is also preparing the country for a long-term war. In particular, a new wave of mobilization may be held in Russia in the spring. U.S. officials told Bloomberg that while Ukraine's partners are ramping up arms supplies, heavy Russian attacks on the front, such as at Bakhmut, have depleted Ukrainian forces and undermined Kyiv's ability to conduct offensive operations elsewhere. Russian troops have captured only one small town in the last six months, paying huge losses. At the same time, Ukrainian troops consistently surprise allies and observers with their successes in the fight against the invaders, the publication notes.

The possibility of Putin's new offensive in the coming months also speaks latest statements from US and Ukrainian officials. On January 30, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that there are no signs that Russia is preparing for peace, on the contrary, it is preparing for further war by mobilizing more soldiers, buying new weapons, and increasing its production. “Systematic shelling of frontline cities, accumulation of ordnance, redeployment of troops, additional forced mobilization in RF surely do not indicate RF’s readiness for peace. These are direct signs of significant escalation”, the adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on Twitter on January 31. Finally, on February 1, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov in an interview with Sky News, said that Russia is preparing for "maximum escalation" soon, and did not rule out that Russian President Vladimir Putin will try another attack on Ukraine from the north, south, and east, as happened on February 24, 2022. "We do understand everything is on the table… I can say that we are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks", Danilov said.

Putin's new offensive in February or March should be considered a serious threat to Ukraine. While the Armed Forces of Ukraine are doing their best to defend against an unstoppable attack on the territory of Eastern Ukraine, the occupier's army can try to conduct a distraction attack from any direction, where Russian forces are located, Belarus included. This would force Kyiv to transfer battle groups with military equipment to the attacked area and would weaken some sections of the existing front. Ukrainian authorities should speed up new military aid supplies from Western partners to empower defense capabilities in case of a new Russian attack in the coming months.

According to analyst Nathalie Vogel, before February 24th, 2022, some influential German politicians dismissed warnings from British and American intelligence agencies regarding a potential Russian attack on Ukraine as remnants of the Cold War. However, on February 27th, German Chancellor Scholz delivered a significant speech, Zeitwende, which marked a shift in Germany's perspective on its armament. The Chancellor declared that his administration would allocate 2% of the country's Gross Domestic Product to defense and utilize a $100 billion fund to improve the military's equipment, potentially requiring a constitutional amendment.

Despite facing persistent criticism for its sluggish responses and restrictions on militarily significant assets, including tanks and weapons systems, the German government eventually authorized the use of Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine on January 25th, 2023. It is speculated that the delay in authorization was due to the Chancellor's desire for the United States to support Ukraine, thereby ensuring Europe's confidence in American nuclear power. It also may be a result of Germany's historical ties with the term "Panzer," which evokes a deeper emotional connection for German speakers. The German decision unlocked the delivery of approximately 80 Leopard 2 tanks from European arsenals.

Germany's recent decision to provide Ukraine with fourteen Leopard 2 tanks holds historical and emotional significance for the German people. The word "Panzer" invokes memories of past horrors, leading to a national consensus in Germany of "Never Again." In light of the ongoing threat posed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, it has become increasingly apparent that Western nations must provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself or face the possibility of deploying their troops. This has resulted in a shift towards a more proactive stance on the part of Germany in the face of authoritarian aggression.

The urgency for Ukraine to acquire heavier weapons has been heightened by Putin's recent mobilization of additional troops and seeking assistance from Belarus. Ukraine is in a race against time to reclaim its territory, acquiring battle tanks, including the Leopard 2, a priority. Germany has already provided 2 Billion Euros in arms and other necessities to Ukraine, with deliveries expected to reach 2.2 Billion Euros this year.

While there has been political debate in Germany regarding the potential escalation of conflict, the decision to send Leopard 2 tanks was ultimately made due to their superior capabilities compared to Soviet-era counterparts. Britain has also agreed to provide Challenger Two tanks to Ukraine. If multiple Western nations each contribute 14 tanks, the total number could reach nearly 100, which could prove impactful in the conflict.

It is important to note that the delivery of modern Western battle tanks alone is not a panacea, but they do offer superior protection, speed, and accuracy to Ukrainian crews. The Leopard 2, equipped with advanced features such as a diesel engine, night vision equipment, and laser rangefinder, can play a significant role in offsetting Russia's superior firepower. However, to see a marked improvement on the frontlines, the Ukrainian Army would require at least 1500 Leopard 2 tanks. The timely delivery and training of Ukrainian troops are crucial for any potential spring offensive. Additionally, Ukraine requires modern fighter jets and air defense systems to protect against Russian missile and drone attacks. The European leaders' decision to donate these weapons is driven by fear in light of the upcoming anniversary of the start of the Russian invasion.

It is imperative to acknowledge that, although the German resolution to unblock the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks was delayed, it happened. Nonetheless, European nations must remain vigilant and persist in providing military aid to Ukraine. The recent authorization of additional arms shipments to Ukraine should not be interpreted as an opportunity for complacency. European allies must increase the provision of modern weaponry to Ukraine, to enable the country to fend off Russian aggression and secure the safety of its citizens. As articulated by Andriy Yermak, Chief of Staff to the President of Ukraine, it is necessary to create a "crushing fist" against Russia.

The decision to finally provide the Ukrainian army with the Western-made main battle tanks has been met in Moscow with mixed messages. Part of the propaganda mouthpieces have downgraded the potential the German Leopard 2 and American Abrams tanks will have on the battlefield, listing the “vulnerable spots” of their armor. On the other hand, however, several Russian officials have warned of a "new level of confrontation” with the West, with Russia’s main propaganda journalists Solovyov and Simoniyan wishing death and plagues upon Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock on state TV.

One disinformation that has spread on the internet, and debunked by Ukrainian fact-checking organization VoxCheck, is how the Russian troops have allegedly already destroyed the American tank Abrams in Ukraine – the truth is, however, that so far no American tank has entered Ukrainian soil. Up until now, only Soviet-made tanks have been delivered to Ukraine and the delivery of the first batch of Western-made tanks is expected in the coming weeks.

Andrey Gurulyov, a State Duma member and former deputy commander of Russia’s southern military district, recently warned about a nuclear attack against the United States during its appearance on a Kremlin-controlled Russia-1 broadcast. In the panel discussion moderated by Putin regime propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, Gurulyov said that “[Americans] won’t come to their senses, until they get hit with a nuke on their skull”. Gurulyov went even further and added that the nuclear strike is the only path to ensure peace, insisting that Russia is the country that brings peace and calm everywhere.

The Kremlin propaganda has long maintained that the nuclear threat is a myth invented by the Americans and the Brits and that Russia did not give any reason for such accusations. This was stated earlier by Maria Zakharova in her Facebook post where she insisted that London was artificially sowing anxiety and fear by pinning the blame on Russia for engaging in nuclear blackmail. Russian officials consistently deny their involvement in nuclear blackmail, but apparently, it is exactly the officials in the Kremlin warning about possible nuclear confrontation with the West (1, 2), not to mention the fact that Putin himself put Russia’s nuclear arsenal on high alert the day after the invasion.

Throughout Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has been systematically engaged in spreading propaganda to alter the truth and saw division among Ukraine's critical European allies. To counteract this, the EU prohibited Russian state media outlets such as RT and Sputnik earlier in March 2022 from broadcasting in the European Union.

While the Kremlin has used all its disinformation assets to make European citizens stop supporting Ukraine Putin could not destroy the unity around the cause of helping Kyiv. And, besides backing Ukraine by military and financial means, European citizens further showed the preparedness to ban state-owned Russian media broadcasting in the EU – a recent survey by Eurobarometer showed that two-thirds of EU citizens approve the decision of banning state-owned Russian media from broadcasting in the EU.

Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia

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