14. 10. 2022

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• Joke of the Week
  

• Policy & Research

1. World oil production undergoes shortages

2. Lukashenko acknowledged Belarus' participation in the war against Ukraine

• U.S. Developments

1. CIA Reports on Kremlin Infighting

2. US Aid to Ukraine is Depleting Military Stockpiles

• Russian Propaganda in Ukraine

1. Ukraine blocked entry to the "liberated" part of the Zaporizhzhia region, says Russian Propaganda

2. According to pro-Kremlin outlets, "the Austrians demand to stop supporting Kyiv"

The guest of our new episode of the Ukraine Watch Edition podcast series was Khrystyna Rybachok, Information Defense Hub expert and Ukraine reconstruction and renewal specialyst. Khrystyna and analyst David Stulík talked about various aspects of Ukraine's post-war reconstruction and potential pitfalls, risks, challanges, and the principles guiding the process.

CNN Business on October 5^th reports OPEC+ will slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day. The author admits the biggest cut in production since the start of the pandemic. OPEC together with Saudi Arabia and Russia, which control more than 40% of global oil production, announced the production cut equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand. In a statement, the group said the decision to cut production was made "in light of the uncertainty that surrounds the global economy and oil market outlooks." The price of Brent crude oil rose 1.5% to more than $93 a barrel on the news, adding to gains this week ahead of the gathering of oil ministers. US oil was up 1.7% at $88.

At the same time, The Guardian informs that the Biden administration demonstrates disappointment about that decision and considers it as a geopolitical move towards Russia. The White House believes that oil production cuts will hurt low and middle-income countries already struggling with elevated energy prices the most.

Belta reports the self-proclaimed president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, who for the first time confirmed the participation of Belarus in the war in Ukraine on the 4^th of October at a meeting on military security. "As for our participation in the "special military operation" in Ukraine, we are participating there. We do not hide it. But we do not kill anyone. We do not send our military anywhere. We do not violate our obligations”, Lukashenko noted.

It is worth mentioning that Belarus in the past rejected all the accusations of being engaged in the Russian war in Ukraine and tried to avoid any political statement about the war. Interestingly, on the 8^th of October, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Belarus presented a diplomatic note to the Ambassador of Ukraine Ihor Kyzym. It claims that Ukraine is allegedly preparing to attack Belarus. The next day The Kyiv Independent reports Ukrainian intelligence, which argues that Vladimir Putin frequently meets with Alexander Lukashenko and tries to convince him to join Russia in its war against Ukraine.

According to Article 10, the United Nations Assembly resolution on 3^rd of March 2022 Belarus was recognized as an involved party in the unlawful use of force against Ukraine.

President Biden was personally briefed, along with other US national security officials, about a member of Putin’s inner circle voicing disagreement with how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has progressed. As Russia's invasion stalls and Ukrainian forces begin to reclaim more territory, the Kremlin insider apparently spoke out regarding "mismanagement of the war effort and mistakes being made by those executing the military campaign." The identity of the Russian insider is known to US intelligence but has not been revealed to the public. Putin is believed to be isolated and surrounded by sycophants. This criticism comes as a rare instance, especially since the outbreak of war, of Putin's leadership, being challenged by his advisors.

Russian citizens have protested the invasion since it began in February, even in the face of state repression. However, as the war turns in favour of the Ukrainians, and Russia begins to lose ground, even more, prominent figures have spoken out publicly against the war and even against the regime. While it is not unlikely that a trusted confidant of Putin would choose this moment to speak out, it is also possible that the intelligence is unreliable. Western intelligence, especially the CIA, has repeatedly failed to accurately assess the Putin regime.

The billions of dollars of military supplies sent to support Ukrainian ground forces have nearly exhausted US stockpiles. Thus far, the US has sent nearly $17 billion in aid to Ukraine, mostly in the form of military surplus. This includes everything from high-powered artillery to small arms ammunition and medical supplies. Supplies of ammunition in particular have created the most pressing scarcity.

The US has sent nearly all its excess ammunition as aid and may need to slow down or even temporarily hold its military assistance until those stockpiles can be replenished. The US military keeps these stockpiles above a certain threshold to maintain combat readiness. This would restrict the flow of critical munitions that have allowed the Ukrainian military to turn the tide against Russia.

Whether or not the US will be able to sustain its current rate of supply will depend on whether or not the Biden administration can successfully boost domestic defence production to meet the growing need. The predicament has already led US military leadership to reevaluate the level of munitions demanded by modern warfare and restructure their standards for adequate supplies.

Russian propaganda continues its disinformation campaign regarding the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. In particular, the Kremlin media, referring to collaborator Vladimir Rogov, reported that Ukraine allegedly blocked entry to the "liberated" part of the Zaporizhzhia region for no reason, so now the residents cannot leave the territory controlled by Kyiv. It is stated that "people are not released for various imaginary reasons and are threatened." It is not valid. The entrance is blocked from both sides.

The head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration, Oleksandr Starukh, explained that access to the temporarily occupied part of the region was closed after the Russian military fired on a humanitarian convoy in Zaporizhzhia. A safer algorithm for the passage of vehicles to occupied territories is currently being developed. The local media also confirmed that the occupiers do not allow Ukrainians to leave the region's temporarily occupied territories. Now, to leave the occupation, residents are required to write statements containing all personal data, copies of documents, information about the place of residence at the time of departure, etc.

One of the tasks of Russian propaganda is to deprive Ukraine of Western support. In this context, the Russian media spread information that "the Austrians demand to stop supporting Ukraine." Allegedly, "the majority of Austrians want their country to maintain neutrality, and for this, it is necessary to stop helping Kyiv and lift sanctions from Russia." It is stated that the motivation for such statements was added by an article in the Austrian media Exxpress with an open letter of call.

Propagandists write that allegedly 47,000 Austrians have already signed it. It is not true. According to the fact-checkers of The Insider project, the letter published in Exxpress contains pro-Russian rhetoric. Apart from the total number of signatories, there is no other information that could be used to claim that the Austrians signed the letter. The letter does not include names or pseudo-users, so there is no evidence that these are people and not bots. Anyone from any country can register and vote, as the site does not verify at least the email address.