ISSUE 13
17. - 30. 10. 2022
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- War of accusations
- Investigation of the sexual crimes committed by Russians in Ukraine
- Life without the possibility of planning
- How Russia’s aggression affects the world economy
- Russian “Dirty bomb” propaganda
- Steinmeier’s new formula for funding the reconstruction of Ukrainian cities
- New Russian – Turkish “pipe-line dream”
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Amidst the discussions on the possibility of nuclear escalation by Russia of the war in Ukraine, the Russian leadership launched an information attack accusing Ukraine in preparing so-called “dirty bomb”. The Russian Defense Ministry said in a briefing on 24 October that it had information that showed Kyiv was planning a provocation related to the detonation of a dirty bomb. “The purpose of this provocation is to accuse Russia of using weapons of mass destruction in the Ukrainian theatre of operations and thereby launch a powerful anti-Russian campaign in the world aimed at undermining confidence in Moscow,” claimed Igor Kirillov, chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Forces.
The Russian disinformation campaign included calls by the Russian Defence Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to their counterparts from different countries (see section on the Information Operation). In addition to the “dirty bomb” scenario, Russian Ambassador to the United Nations Nebenzya claimed at the UN SC meeting that Ukraine was intensifying work on secret biological weapons in its territory which, inter alia, included such projects as infectious insects, i.e. usage of UAVs to transport “a container housing a huge number of infections-transmitting mosquitoes to release them at a designated area”.
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A “dirty bomb” is a bomb that contains radioactive material, such as uranium, which is scattered through the air when its conventional explosive detonates. It belongs in the toolkits of terrorist groups, but out of all known cases of attempts to use such bombs, neither has ever detonated. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, being a conventional military force and having a solid history of close cooperation with NATO Allies, has never demonstrated any intent to develop a “dirty bomb” or to use such a thing in combat actions. Ukraine is a committed member of the agreements related to control over nuclear materials. In response to Russian accusations, the Ukrainian government immediately invited inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the two mentioned nuclear locations in Ukraine, which have been visited regularly by IAEA inspectors before with no undeclared activities or materials being reported.
Apart from that, since 2013 Ukraine has been working with NATO under the Trust Fund on the Control of Radioactive Waste, which was established to support Ukraine in clearing up disposal grounds for radioactive waste. This TF also included regular inspections and joint work on the number of issues related to the transparency and accountability for utilization of dangerous materials.
Given the absurdity of the accusations against Ukraine, concerns were raised that Russia could use this information campaign as pretext for a nuclear-related escalation, as the situation in the battlefield, especially in the Southern direction, remains shaky for its troops. The US Department of Defense reported that there are no indications in American intelligence that Moscow has decided to use weapons of mass destruction (neither nuclear nor chemical nor biological). This assessment has been confirmed by Ukrainian military intelligence as well. Russia has not exhausted its conventional potential to escalate, Ukrainian experts believe.
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INVESTIGATION OF THE SEXUAL CRIMES COMMITTED BY RUSSIANS IN UKRAINE |
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After the full-scale invasion, sexual crimes by Russians against Ukrainians became widespread. After the liberation of the occupied territories, more and more new facts are emerging. According to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, the age of the victims ranges from four years to 85, both female and male. Currently, a new department has been created in the Office of the General Prosecutor, which deals exclusively with this category of cases and has significantly changed the approaches to their investigation - victims can remain anonymous (even for their families), testify only once and - at any stage - can refuse to participate.
The exact number of such cases - due to their sensitivity (often victims, avoiding re-traumatization, do not want to mention what they experienced) - is not announced. From the OSCE report published in the summer, it is known that only "in Bucha, in the basement of one of the houses, 25 girls aged between 14 and 25 were kept, who were gang-raped by the Russian military, as a result of which nine of them became pregnant."
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Sexual crimes are not only rape, but also genital torture, public exposure, keeping men and women together; examination of women not by women, but by men, etc. This is strictly prohibited by Article 27 of the Geneva Convention for the Protection of the Civilian Population in Time of War (1949). It should be noted that sexual crimes are one of the components of the crime of genocide.
In cooperation with foreign colleagues, the Prosecutor General’s Office is finalizing the development of a mechanism that will allow even those victims who have moved outside of Ukraine to testify. In addition, amendments to the Criminal and Criminal Procedure Codes of Ukraine are currently being prepared, which will allow life imprisonment for those guilty of such crimes. The possibility of implementing a mechanism under which Ukrainian victims of sexual violence by Russians will receive compensation payments at the expense of funds recovered from confiscated Russian assets is being discussed. The aid provided by the partner states is also being considered for this purpose.
It is important for Ukraine to prove the systematic nature of this type of crime, which will allow it to apply to the International Criminal Court, whose office is currently being prepared to open in Ukraine. The Genocide Convention has been in force worldwide since 1948. Since that time, there has been proof of genocide by specific officials, but never by states (here it is required not only to justify the intention to destroy representatives of a certain nation, but the intention of "genocidal murder"). Russia may become the first in the list of states. "We strive to bring the Russian perpetrators of genocide to justice, and we will fight for justice," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on this occasion.
Evidence of intentional genocide is also the mass transfer of people without their consent (deportation from temporarily occupied territories to Russia). Also, the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, followed by their adoption by Russian families. One such child was officially adopted by the Russian commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, in connection with which the Ukrainian side demands to open a criminal case against her.
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LIFE WITHOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PLANNING |
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Ukraine has been living in a new reality for three weeks. As a result of almost daily shelling of energy infrastructure facilities by the Russians, regulating the energy system is becoming more and more difficult. Ukrainians suffer from power outages every day. They responded to the call to reduce electricity consumption and were equally sympathetic to the published schedules of forced power outages. But later it became clear that the reality does not correspond to the schedules. Instead of the promised scheduled four-hour outages, residents of the left bank of the three-million Kyiv are forced to be without electricity for six, eight, and sometimes 12 hours a day, and these outages occur randomly and suddenly. The situation is difficult in other big cities as well, but the capital suffers the most. The unpredictability of blackouts increases social tension. When the internet goes out along with the light in government institutions and company offices, the elevators don't work, there's no way to turn on the heaters, and an air-raid alarm is announced a few times a day and you have to go down to the shelter - all this demoralizes and causes chaos. Kyivans need to adapt to new conditions. Now everyone must carry a flashlight, a charged power bank, wear reflective clothing in the evening (since street lighting is limited) and keep a supply of water at home.
There is the problem of inflated expectations: people thought that schedules would be met. In fact, they are difficult to implement, because the energy system is very dynamic. The weather, as well as new infrastructure damage and emergency situations, also have an impact. Schedule is associated with order and guarantee. People feel cheated and massively complain about the impossibility of basic planning.
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What objects are the Russians attacking, which leads to this chaos and the impossibility of mastering the regulation of the energy system? Analysis shows that the attacks systematically target the key most powerful 330 kV substations. For example, the strike by Russia on 22 October was obviously aimed at disconnecting the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) from the 330 kV electrical network, as five substations were affected by this voltage in different directions from the NPP. The second goal on this day was the Odesa power district with the aim of creating a shortage of electricity in the Odesa region (six similar substations).
The main impacts were in the center and west of the country, where restrictions on electricity consumption reached the largest scale. In four days, until Wednesday, it was possible to restore electricity supply mostly everywhere. However, on Thursday, an important similar power facility in the Kyiv region was affected, and emergency shutdowns in Kyiv resumed again. Attacks aimed at 330 kV autotransformers may not disable the substations themselves completely, but create significant difficulties with the power supply of the areas adjacent to the substations. Power transfer to other autotransformers leads to their overload during peak loads and emergency situations. As a result, emergency automation and repeated shutdowns are triggered. It is this that can explain the numerous complaints of consumers that the schedules of stabilization shutdowns are not followed and there is no electricity even when there should be according to the schedule. It has a critical impact on the economy. According to an optimistic forecast, in a few days, the schedule of power outages will become planned, and not emergency. Currently, a list of enterprises whose electricity supply is critical is being compiled. Under the current conditions, the state will be able to guarantee electricity supply or a predicted shutdown schedule only for enterprises from this list. The deficit of electricity in Kyiv is currently 25-50% at different times. According to various estimates, it will take 2-3 weeks to restore the operation of the power system in Kyiv, provided there is no new extensive shelling. According to Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klychko, additional anti-aircraft defense equipment was delivered to Kyiv to protect energy infrastructure facilities. This means that kamikaze drone attacks may no longer occur. However, threats of rocket fire remain. There is a risk of a major blackout in Kyiv and Ukraine as a whole. Emergency situations are also likely during the heating season.
Despite the fact that from June to October, Ukraine exported electricity to the European Union, it is now forced to import it. On 27 October, the state energy trader «Energy Company of Ukraine» carried out the first test supply of electricity from Slovakia with a capacity of 1 MW. Several private Ukrainian electricity traders also went on trial deliveries of electricity from Slovakia and booked the first deliveries on 30 October. The technical possibility of importing electricity from Europe to Ukraine is another tool for stabilizing the operation of the Ukrainian energy system, especially before the heating season.
Meanwhile, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitriy Medvedev said that the Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are aimed at forcing Ukraine to surrender. Thus, in essence, Russia admitted to terrorism at the state level. The energy security situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP remains unstable, and although the plant is provided with a uninterrupted power supply, everything can change dramatically at any moment. During the retreat, the Russians may resort to acts of terrorism, in particular the detonation of residential areas or the Zaporizhzhia NPP, in order to permanently disable the plant and provoke a man-made disaster, blaming Ukraine.
Russia has created such difficult conditions for the Ukrainian energy industry that no one in Europe has ever seen. And although the risk of worst-case scenarios remains, it can be definitely said that the experience gained by Ukraine in maintaining the stability of the energy system over the past three weeks is unique, and after the situation is settled, it can be used to "learn lessons" for any countries.
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HOW RUSSIA’S AGGRESSION AFFECTS THE WORLD ECONOMY |
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Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has lasted over eight months. This has led to a significant decline in the Ukrainian economy. However, it is naive to think that this does not affect the state of the world economy. In early October, experts of the International Monetary Fund warned that the world would begin to feel the economic recession next year due to the full-scale invasion of Russia. The world has not yet recovered from the losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the new crisis caused by the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War can hit the wallets of not only Ukrainians but also residents of many countries worldwide, including the EU and the USA.
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According to the World Bank, the size of the Ukrainian economy does not exceed 0.2% of global GDP and 0.3% of world exports. It is a country with a small economy, which theoretically could not cause a world crisis. However, the world is already feeling the consequences of the war unleashed by Russia. Since the beginning of the year in the EU, inflation has significantly accelerated. In the Czech Republic in September, annual inflation reached 18%. Prices for utilities and food products have increased. In some developing countries, a large shortage of products appeared because Ukraine was a huge supplier of grain crops and oil. Although agri-business is a developed industry for European and American countries, this will not improve the situation. After all, these countries mainly work to support their own markets. In Ukraine, grain crops were grown with a surplus, which was then exported, in particular, to African countries. Even the USA, which has a stable and strong economy, is feeling the impact of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The country is going through a raw material crisis caused by the shutdown of production in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions on the aggressor. However, the most significant economic blow, apart from Ukraine, awaits the EU and UK. After all, due to their close location, these countries have stronger trade relations with Ukraine, now accept the most Ukrainian refugees, and some countries were dependent on Russian gas and oil.
Russian aggression has put pressure on global commodity prices, exacerbated disruptions in supply chains, and fuelled inflation in most countries worldwide. In this way, Russia is trying to pressure Western countries and influence the reduction of aid to Ukraine. Some organizations and politicians are calling for the start of peace talks with Moscow. However, the current war shows that such a development of the situation is impossible without the complete victory of Ukraine and the return of its lands. To understand the success of such an idea, it is worth recalling the peace negotiations during the eight years of war, which ended with the genocide of Ukrainians in 2022. The world cannot avoid recession in the future. The damage has already been done, and Ukraine and the world will recover from such a shock for many years after the war. Therefore, this is no longer Russia’s war against Ukraine but Russia’s war against the entire democratic world.
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RUSSIAN “DIRTY BOMB” PROPAGANDA |
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On 23 October, the Head of the Russian Defense Ministry, Sergei Shoigu, held telephone conversations with NATO defense ministers and accused Ukraine of developing a so-called “dirty bomb”. The next day, the Head of Russian General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov continued to discredit Kyiv. Instead, the foreign ministers of the United States, Great Britain, and France issued a joint statement accusing Russia of lying about Ukraine’s “dirty bomb.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg named the Kremlin's statement absurd and reminded that a similar model of behaviour by the RF had already been observed in Syria, as well as before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February. On 25 October, the UN Security Council held a closed meeting at the request of the Russian Federation, during which the Russian side did not provide any evidence supporting its accusations. In Kyiv, statements by Russian officials were called "absurd and dangerous lies." At the request of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will visit two nuclear facilities in Ukraine.
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The rhetoric of nuclear intimidation is not new in Russian propaganda. Over the past two months, the apocalyptic threats of the Putin regime have become a central topic in the information space. The reason for this is the defeat of the Russian invaders on the battlefield in Ukraine. Within the propaganda narrative of "nuclear blackmail," there is a change in key messages from open threats to deliver a nuclear strike on Ukraine, seeking to absolve itself of responsibility for any possible tragedy. An example of changing the tactics of information influence is the legend of Ukraine’s "dirty bomb." This story is a planned information and psychological operation of the Kremlin. Evidence of this is the synchronized use of a powerful diplomatic and information arsenal of Russian propaganda. Statements by a number of top officials, diplomats, pseudo "experts," and media influencers are a common, often repeated narrative that does not contain any evidence or facts of Ukraine’s involvement in voiceless accusations. Instead, it is aimed at the emotional perception of different target audiences. The main objectives of such a campaign are: discrediting Ukraine, intimidating the West to reduce arms supplies, inclining Kyiv to negotiate and preparing the information basis for further military provocations.
Just like on the battlefield, Russia is losing the information war. Western leaders unanimously declared the absurdity of the allegations of Ukraine’s "dirty bomb." However, the story may not end there. Having accused Ukraine, Russia can independently use tactical nuclear weapons or launch an offensive from Belarus. For several weeks in a row, Russians have been attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, 40% of which has already been damaged. The occupiers’ goal is to completely cut off Ukrainians from electricity and heat supply before winter. A complete blackout in Ukraine is impossible without controlling nuclear power plants. An attempt to seize a nuclear power plant under the pretext of searching for materials for a "dirty bomb" may be one of the Kremlin’s plans to destroy Ukraine’s energy system and further blackmail the West. A potential object at risk is the Rivne NPP, located about 65 kilometers from the border with Belarus.
Another possible future scenario may be an attempt at nuclear provocation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The unauthorized construction work on the territory of the spent dry fuel storage facility (DSFSF) at ZNPP can prove it. According to Energoatom, 174 containers with spent nuclear fuel are stored on DSFSF. The destruction of these containers due to explosions can lead to an accident and radiation contamination of several hundred square kilometres of the adjacent territory. To prevent such scenarios, Ukraine and Western partners must continue to respond promptly to the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns, and UN and OSCE monitoring missions must work permanently at Ukraine’s nuclear facilities until the war’s end.
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STEINMEIER’S NEW FORMULA FOR FUNDING THE RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN CITIES |
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The President of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who previously defended the strengthening of ties with the Russian Federation, paid visit to Kyiv announcing a new era of German support in rebuilding Ukraine. In his program speech, he called on German society to jointly confront the problems caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as build municipal and city bridges in order to support Ukrainian reconstruction.
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Besides institutional support to the government of Ukraine, the new focus of “Steinmeier Formula-2” announced in Kyiv is in the municipal cooperation. To make it visible and lasting, Presidents Steinmeier and Zelenskyy took patronage of the German-Ukrainian Municipalities Network. As implementer of this initiative, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)announced a budget of 600 million euros supporting 107 German-Ukrainian municipal partnerships via advice and the funding of assistance, and by providing platforms for exchange. In practical terms, for example, Germany is making available 5 million euros for the procurement of urgently needed goods (medicinal products, municipal vehicles, meals, assistance for children and young people). BMZ is also assisting in water utility partnerships. Moreover, companies from critical production sectors are also being supported, so that for example the availability of metal roofs, doors and windows can be improved. At the same time, the visit of Steinmeier coincided with a major conference in Berlin headed by Olaf Scholz on which he called for a Marshall plan for Ukraine together with President of the European Commission Ursula von den Leyenas Ukraine struggles with worsening economic conditions and limited financial assistance.
At the same time, the key questions about Ukraine’s future, including who will pay for reconstruction of the war-torn country and how EU nations and Kyiv’s other allies will divide the bill, were not answered both by Steinmeier or Scholz. Moreover, both the visit of Steinmeier and the conference in Berlin did not provide concrete answers about when the reconstruction should start. There is still fear that due to a long wait, growing fatigue may lead to less political support in the EU. And therefore, European governments might be reluctant to pour taxpayers’ money into rebuilding a country at war if there is a chance that investments into energy, railway and other infrastructure could be destroyed.
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NEW RUSSIAN – TURKISH PIPE(LINE) DREAM |
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In the last three months, Turkish President Erdogan and Putin have met four times, and recently, during their meeting in Astana at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA), they discussed creating a natural gas supply hub in Turkey to deliver Russian gas to Europe. Turkey and Russia announced they will work together to select the gas distribution point, and that it might be near the Greek or Bulgarian border.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s office reacted by saying that the project makes “no sense, since Europe won’t be receiving more gas from Russia in the future in the first place. Meanwhile, without any evidence, Putin accused Ukraine of attempting to detonate one of the sections of the TurkStream. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded with a warning that Russia might destroy part of the pipeline under a false-flag operation to accuse Ukraine, and continue its gas blackmail.
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TurkStream became a supply route for Russian gas to Europe in January 2020, when Bulgaria and North Macedonia started receiving gas via TurkStream instead of the Trans-Balkan pipeline which goes through Ukraine and Romania. Bulgaria no longer imports Russian gas but allows its transit, while Gazprom continues shipping gas to Turkey, Serbia, North Macedonia and Hungary via TurkStream. Currently, TurkStream doesn’t directly connect to pipelines of other Central or Southern EU countries, and its annual capacity is not enough to replace other transit routes. Russia and Turkey discussed the prospects of building new lines to increase its capacity, but it would take years and huge financial resources from Russia to complete the announced plan, and it is questionable whether Russia will afford to finance this project.
Russian gas supplies to the EU have decreased and the EU is implementing a plan to gradually decrease its dependence on it, within the framework of the REPowerEU initiative also. In addition, Europe has already found alternative sources and filled its gas storage this year. Turkey itself, in the last decade, reduced imports of Russian gas and imports of natural gas through pipelines in general, increasing imports of LNG instead. Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin stated that Turkish pipelines can also be used to carry Azerbaijani and Iranian gas to Europe. Currently, Russian gas is transmitted to Europe mainly via Ukraine, as well as TurkStream. It can be said that Ukraine’s gas transmission system is significant and the sole transit route for Russian gas to the EU. For years, Russia has been looking for an alternative in order to decrease its dependence on gas transit through Ukraine. It is unimaginable that Putin expects Europe will not work on decreasing its consumption of Russian gas, but it is worrying that Russia is searching for another route that would replace Ukraine’s pipelines which have remained intact and functioning despite Russian shelling and rocket fire targeting many infrastructure objects.
Turkish media, which mainly promotes anti-Western narratives and an agenda coinciding with Russia’s when it comes to energy, reported these talks between Erdogan and Putin as a significant deal for the future Turkey-Russia cooperation in the energy field. These concerning developments demonstrate that Turkey continues to juggle between its responsibilities as a NATO member and its desire to gain benefits from the war in Ukraine, testing the West’s patience. Russia’s offer of a cut in the price of gas and a deferral of payments until after the elections might have encouraged Erdogan who is striving to win the elections next June in spite of the mass inflation.
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CZK: Transparent account
AN: 2300405420/2010
VS: 2022
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