27. 10. 2022

Dear readers, after several weeks of consultations, our Kremlin Watch team decided to change the format that we were providing to you in our Kremlin Watch Briefing. From this week and after we will provide you with three analyses of current and relevant topics that have an impact on the geopolitical situation in Ukraine, Europe and beyond. In addition to these analyses, we will bring you three shorter articles on current disinformation narratives and influence operations. We hope that you will enjoy this new format.

Yours,
Kremlin Watch team

PS: Don’t worry! Joke of the week can be found at the end of the newsletter!

• Iranian drones in Russian hands

• Iranian role in Russian war against Ukraine

• What to do?

• Recent the US-Russia communication

• Increased Russian communication activity

• What to do?

• Current development

• What would recognition mean?

• What to do?

On the 12^th of July White House, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that information received by the United States indicates that Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use Iranian-produced drones against Ukraine. The first Iranian drone was shot down near Kupyansk at the beginning of September. Over the next month, Ukraine has already shot down more than a hundred Iranian drones. Additionally, on the 20^th of October, the White House national security spokesman John Kirby claimed Iranian military personnel were spotted in Crimea to assist Russia in its operations against Ukraine. This created high tension between Ukraine and Iran relations.

Ukraine considered Iran's decision on drone supply to Russia as an unfriendly act and responded by depriving the ambassador of Iran of his accreditation. The number of diplomatic staff at the Iranian Embassy in Kyiv was reduced dramatically. Iranian side did not recognize its supporting Russian forces with drones as well as the presence of any Iranian forces in Crimea. Meanwhile, Iranian-produced drones led to dozens of civilian casualties and serious damage to Ukrainian infrastructure.

Furthermore, the tendency of Iranian drone attacks is going to be increased significantly, as Russia currently possesses at least 300 drones and intends to order a couple of thousands of them based on information from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. On 17^th of October the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, speaking at the meeting of the EU Council on Foreign Affairs blamed Iran for taking part in the crime of aggression, war crimes and terrorist acts of Russia against Ukraine and called the EU to introduce sanctions against Iran. Thereby diplomatic relations came to a stage where the next possible movement forward is only to break off.

The recent updates on the supply of Russian forces by Iran are more discouraging. According to US and Iranian security officials the batch of medium-range missiles, as well as large numbers of drones are coming to Russia. The two short-range missiles have the striking capability at distances of 300km and 700km respectively. Possible damage from the Iranian weaponry in Russian hands is difficult to predict, but there is no doubt that Iran possesses one of the largest and the most diverse arsenals of short- and medium-range missiles in the Middle East. But all these Iranian ammunitions could help the Russian side to gradually damage Ukraine's critical infrastructure before a potentially harsh winter. Russia is also intended to increase the critically depleted stock of Russian missiles. Finally, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba submitted to President Volodymyr Zelensky the proposal to break diplomatic relations with Iran due to the supply of Iranian weapons to Russia.

Interestingly, Ukraine has never taken an anti-Iranian position. In its foreign policy Ukraine mostly kept a neutral approach to Iran, even despite the fact of shooting down a Ukrainian Boeing 737 by a missile fired by soldiers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in January 2020. But arming Russian forces with drones and missiles in perspective makes Iran a part of this illegal and cruel war against Ukraine. Civilian casualties and damage to Ukrainian infrastructure stand Ukrainian authorities in a position to take decisions against Iran calculated on the amount of damage received.

So, that is why Ukraine should break diplomatic relations with Iran with the possibility of its restoration if the drone supply is over. Then, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine shall call European Union to apply strong economic sanctions against the most profitable sectors of the Iranian economy.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu have had multiple phone calls in the past week. For the first time since May, the two military officials discussed the current state of the war in Ukraine. The real goal of the calls seemed to be the simple preservation of open communication, but the rare exchanges came during a time of accelerating escalation from both parties. The U.S. has deployed the 101st Airborne infantry division, famous for its role in the D-Day invasion of Europe during WWII, just a few miles from Ukraine's border. At the same time, Putin has also declared martial law in the illegally-annexed regions in eastern Ukraine. The Kremlin has been pushing a new disinformation narrative, claiming that Ukraine may use a “dirty bomb” in combat.

These talks may signal an intensification of the conflict. Shoigu did not just speak with Secretary Austin, but with defence officials representing many of Ukraine’s powerful allies. In each of these conversations, Shoigu repeated the false “dirty bomb” narrative. His repetition of this lie, taken in the context of escalating action on both sides of the war, may indicate a strategic motive. President Zelensky of Ukraine rejected this lie in a recent address: “So when today the Russian Minister of Defense organizes a phone carousel and calls foreign ministers with stories about the so-called "dirty" nuclear bomb, everyone understands everything well.” The claim is especially troubling since Ukraine has no nuclear weapons program. In cooperation with the U.S. and Russia, and with international oversight, Ukraine’s entire WMD arsenal was destroyed or transferred elsewhere after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Shoigu’s discussions with various defence leaders amount to no more than the proliferation of Russian disinformation through official channels. Making such a formal claim may indicate that Russia plans to use it to justify a drastic escalation.

On the other hand, there may be some signs of progress in these talks. The false allegations of a “dirty bomb” were not all that was discussed. U.S. Defense officials came away from the talks cautiously optimistic about the likelihood of a Russian military strike. Said Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, there is "no indication at this time" that Russia will deploy nuclear weapons. Additionally, Austin and Shoigu have had three separate calls in recent days. It was the Russian Defense Minister who initiated these subsequent conversations, according to the U.S. Department of Defense. If the purpose of this “phone carousel” was to disseminate a false narrative, why would Shoigu keep these lines of communication open longer than necessary? More frequent talks between the two sides in this conflict could indicate a softening in the Kremlin’s approach, as they are more willing to engage with their adversaries.

Defence leaders who spoke with Shoigu have all responded more or less predictably. All of them emphasized the importance of continued communication while denouncing Shoigu's dangerous accusation. The statement released by the U.K. Ministry of Defense said that Secretary Ben Wallace even told Shoigu explicitly that the false claims “should not be used as a pretext for greater escalation.”

While Shoigu may have reached out to foreign defence ministers as part of an official false-flag operation, predicting the Kremlin’s next steps has never been an exact science. Whether the calls signal a movement towards negotiation or further violence, they certainly beat the alternative of radio silence. Maintaining open communication, and working collaboratively towards de-escalation provide the best chance of a peaceful settlement of the conflict.

After the invasion of Ukraine and a series of crimes committed by Russian occupiers in Bucha, Borodianka, and Irpin, Kyiv has repeatedly called the civilized world to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. A new wave of demands for the West has intensified after the recent bombing of Ukrainian cities, in which Russians killed dozens of innocent people and destroyed more than 40% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

On the 13^th of October, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a terrorist regime. A few days later, the Estonian Parliament declared RF a terrorist regime and a state supporting terrorism. The European Parliament will vote to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism during the session on November 21-24. Earlier on June 24, the U.S. Senate approved a resolution calling on the State Department to declare Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Russia instead threatened the United States with a break in diplomatic relations. In Ukraine, this status has been legally established by the Verkhovna Rada since April 14.

After the recent Kremlin terrorist attacks against Ukrainian civilians and energy facilities calls for recognition of Russia as a sponsor of terrorism have become more frequent in the rhetoric of Western leaders. Three EU member states – Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia – have officially recognized the Russian regime as a terrorist. The Baltic states' bold step and the PACE exemplify solidarity, but it has more political, diplomatic, and image importance. The national laws of these states do not provide for prosecution and no punishment. The only country where this status has specific consequences is the United States.

Russia's inclusion in the list of states sponsoring terrorism will mean symbolic, financial, diplomatic, sanctions, and judicial-legal consequences for Moscow. Concerning sanctions, this is a ban on the supply of weapons (export and sale), financial restrictions, and a ban on economic assistance. Also, the issue of controlling the export of dual-use goods has great importance. This means that terrorist countries will not receive weapons and technologies for manufacturing or modernization. Countries that trade with Russia also risk Western sanctions if they export weapons or technology to Russia.

In other words, the fear of being sanctioned will be an additional deterrent and can significantly limit the number of those wishing to do business with the Kremlin. It is important to add that Washington can not only apply these sanctions itself but also influence its trading partners to comply with them. Thus, recognizing Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism will lead to even greater economic and political isolation. The consequences of such a decision are known in Washington and Brussels, but now, they are in no hurry to adopt it. The decision is postponed for both political and economic reasons.

The Joe Biden administration believes this step will worsen ties with several European allies who continue economic and humanitarian relations with Russia and make it harder to maintain diplomatic ties with Moscow even at the current minimum level. In addition, in November, parliamentary elections will be held in the United States. To avoid speculation from Republicans, the White House will not approve the Senate resolution during the election campaign.

In this matter, a deterrent for the EU is its unwillingness to confront the nuclear state. Some leaders of European states support the position of the Baltic countries, but their brave example is unlikely to be followed soon. Therefore, states that are willing to recognise Russia as a terrorist regime and states that are supporting terrorism, shall increase their diplomatic activity to persuade hesitant allies to join them.

"And now I will show you where the attack on Belarus was prepared from" – this phrase from the self-proclaimed president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, originally voiced to assure the audience that if the "special operation" had not begun, then Ukraine would have attacked Belarus, turned into a meme and spread virally across “Russophone” internet communities in mid-March.

Recently, Lukashenko returned to this propaganda narrative, claiming again that there was a clear threat to Belarus from Kyiv and its Western backers. It was against this backdrop, when on October 14 news pieces on Minsk having declared a counter-terrorist operation regime started to emerge, with local independent media Nasha Niva reporting that Belarus started conducting small-scale covert mobilization; meanwhile, Russia has also sent thousands of troops back to Belarus.

All of this has prompted speculations on whether a new joint incursion across Ukraine's northern border is being prepared from Belarus. On October 21, Lukashenko rejected that such plans exist, rather insisting that the war is not something that Belarus needs today. The assessments of Russia's deployment of 3200 soldiers to Belarus, largely comprised of newly mobilized reservists, make Lukashenko's latest statement more convincing. However, given that Lukashenko, like his Russian counterpart, inhabits his reality, many believe that predicting the actions of Russia and Belarus is a fool’s game.

From an annexed Kherson region of Ukraine, Russia’s puppet leader Kirill Stremousov recently claimed that the front there has stabilized ahead of the winter. This is when Russia claims it is evacuating civilians from Kherson, as a major counter-offensive is about to start, with Ukrainians "having plans to blow up the Kakhovka Reservoir and flood the city”. Evidence, though, has shown that evacuees are not ordinary residents, but collaborators and Russian officials. One resident of Kherson has told Sky News in a detailed interview that the evacuation is not designed for ordinary civilians. Those fleeing the city, the interviewee says, are “Mostly families of Russian officers, families of Russian officials and collaborators who helped to organize the referendum. Among them are teachers and doctors, municipal workers and kindergarten staff. Those who have taken Russian passports."

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, may be vulnerable to the forms of systematic manipulation that have been exposed on social media and several other information spaces. In a recent report, Institute for Strategic Dialogue and CASM Technology reviewed the English-language Wikipedia page for the Russo-Ukrainian war. They have examined accounts that edited the page and have subsequently been blocked from editing and identified a particular strategy used by bad actors of dividing edits into similar pages across many accounts to evade detection.

Based on the mapping done by the researchers, they were able to identify several other Wikipedia pages where blocked editors introduced state-affiliated domains, which, according to the report, helps spotlight various regions of Wikipedia that might be investigated more closely. The report states that pro-Russian undisclosed paid editing has been spotted not only on the Russian and Ukrainian Wikipedias but also on other language-based pages as well.

Itai Abraham – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia

Thank you.

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