28. 7. 2022

• Don't miss out!
  

• Joke of the week
  

• Policy & Research

1. Grain deal and missile strikes

2. The EU getting ready for winter

• U.S. Developments

1. Calls rise in US Congress to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism

2. The American-made weapons that could change everything

• Kremlin's Narratives in Western Societies

1. Urgent need for peace strategy in Kremlin narrative

2. Biden’s responsibility over the war in Ukraine

• Russian Propaganda in Ukraine

1. “Brave New World” of the Russian Federation's utopia

2. Dnipro is polluted with a poisonous toxin

• Taipei news

📣We added more content! 🇺🇦

From now on we will provide more content, separatly focusing on Russian Propaganda in Ukraine and Kremlin's Narratives in Western Society!

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On Saturday, the key Black Sea port of Odesa was hit by a series of missiles, and while at first, the Kremlin denied any involvement to Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Russia has since claimed responsibility for the attack. Akar remains confident that delegations will continue to cooperate in Turkey, claiming that the attack targeted a grain silo and not the port's infrastructure.

On the other hand, Kremlin spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated the attack allegedly destroyed a Ukrainian military ship and hit "a military infrastructure target," while Ukrainian authorities condemn the violation of Russia's promise not to hit grain export infrastructure. A deal had been signed the day before between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations to create a grain export corridor in the Black Sea to alleviate the global food crisis and prevent grain from mouldering. The attack, as Ukrainian head of government administration Andriy Yermak stated, demonstrates the "Russian diplomatic dichotomy," the feasibility of the agreement and Russian commitment to it are dented and the work done so far by the parties diminished.

After fears that Russia would cut supplies completely, Germany and the EU had to develop new strategies to try to avoid the worst of the winter. While the Nord Stream 1 pipeline has initially restarted at 40% capacity, avoiding the “nightmare scenario”, Gazprom has already reduced the flow to 20 per cent this week. Therefore, the German government decided to provide 17 billion euros to energy giant Uniper SE, obtaining a 30 per cent stake in the company, gaining veto rights for strategic decisions, and avoiding the collapse of the energy system in Germany. The unprecedented move is the latest attempt to remedy the country's vulnerability to Putin's will and Russian gas supplies as winter approaches, but it will still be difficult for Germany to meet its target of 75 per cent gas storage levels by September.

In the meantime, the EU agreed Tuesday on a voluntary agreement to reduce gas consumption starting next week; the modalities would be at the discretion of individual states, and the arrangement could become mandatory if the situation results in an emergency. The key point of the agreement is to share the burden of the energy crisis among members, expecting major efforts even from those not dependent on Russian supplies to avoid a collapse of the entire European network.

Amid the Russian strikes on civilian sites nearly on daily basis, the pressure is mounting on the Biden administration to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. In particular, Speaker Nancy Pelosi called on the Secretary of State Antony Blinken to label Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, otherwise, Congress would take this responsibility. It is worth mentioning that Congress gave the power of designating another country as a state sponsor of terrorism to the Secretary of State, but Congress can still label Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism without the permission of the State Department.

The idea also was put forth by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal in May. They introduced the bill that underscores Russia's acts of terrorism and calls on Blinken to make the designation official. The labelling implicates restricting the US foreign assistance for such countries, curtailing defence exports and sales, placing controls on exports of dual-use items, and sanctioning the persons and countries engaging in certain trade with state sponsors. As experts state, Congress has not yet made a major move to punish Russia, thus having a congressional mandate makes those sanctions far more effective.

On Wednesday the Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska asked the US lawmakers in Congress to send air defence systems to her country. The Ukrainian officials expressed their gratitude for the weapons delivered so far, but they hope that the West will provide Ukraine with more advanced systems.

The HIMARS system is the best example of those advanced systems that enabled Ukraine to advance on the battlefield. The HIMARS system has already led to the destruction of 20 Russian ammunition depots and command posts. Besides, the Russian general Artem Nasbulin, commander of the 22^nd Army Corps, was killed by a HIMARS strike.

But, it is worth noting that the HIMARS systems are limited to the 80-kilometre range of attack. The issue of military aid for Ukraine is regarded as a razor's edge for the US as it might prompt Russia's attack on NATO countries at any time. Other reasons make the US reluctant to provide Ukraine with more advanced systems. One of them is the fear of falling these weapons in the enemy's hands. Furthermore, the US officials' concern deals with the issue of how the transfer of weaponry to Ukraine degrades America's strategic stockpiles.

DW informs Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, who called for a new EU strategy for the war in Ukraine. According to the Hungarian prime minister, the European Union needs a strategy aimed at peace talks with Russia. The punitive measures taken against Russia do not work, Viktor Orban believes.

As the Hungarian prime minister pointed out in his speech, the West's strategy towards Ukraine is built on four pillars: Ukraine can win the war with Russia with the help of NATO weapons, sanctions will weaken the Russian Federation and destabilize its leadership, punitive measures will harm Russia more than Europe, and the world community will support the position of Europe. That strategy has failed, Orban said, as governments in Europe "fall like dominoes" and energy prices soar.

According to Orban, the threat of an economic recession hangs over the whole of Europe. In this regard, he recalled analysts' forecasts that next year GDP growth will decline to about 2.5 per cent. "We must reach a new agreement with the Union's low requirements, these specifics on financing are underway, and we will come to an agreement," he stressed.

NPR reports, that after the invasion began, Former US President Donald Trump defended by saying that Putin was "smart," then called President Biden "weak" and described NATO countries as "not so smart."

"The problem is not that Putin is smart — which of course he is smart," Trump told a crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference. "But the real problem is that our leaders are dumb. Dumb. So dumb.” Business Standard informs Donald Trump said that the incompetence of the current administration in Washington could lead to an escalation of the Ukraine crisis. "We have incompetent people running things," Trump told his supporters at a Sunday rally in Greenwood, Nebraska, warning that the situation in Ukraine is "a very dangerous thing" and that "this could be a world war."

Finally, Ria Novosti reports Donald Trump, who said about Biden's guilt in the conflict in Ukraine: "This war in Ukraine should not have happened. And it 100% would not have happened with me."

Russian propaganda is trying to demonstrate a picture of a «bright and peaceful life» in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. On July 17, pro-Russian media reported on Metallurgist's Day celebrations in the city of Mariupol (Donetsk region). They wrote that the residents confess that “finally everything is behind us, now everything is different, life is getting better, and the city comes to life.” However, in reality, Mariupol is currently in a state of humanitarian disaster. Thousands of residential buildings and social infrastructure facilities were destroyed. The city has no water, stable electricity, and central heating. The sanitary and epidemiological situation is terrible and threatens residents. The population of the city decreased more than twice. This is the real face of the "brave new world” of Russian propaganda.

Kremlin propaganda spreads fakes and manipulative messages to undermine morale and sow panic among Ukrainians. In this regard, Russian media, and social channels disseminated a fake that the city of Dnipro „is polluted with a poisonous toxin – a component of rocket fuel that is dangerous for humans”. The reports of the release of heptyl began to spread after the Russian attack on Southern Machine-Building Plant in the Dnipro. But all of them are false. Russian occupiers could have caused the leak of heptyl and carried out a terrorist attack comparable in scale to a nuclear disaster. However, the local headquarters of the territorial defence reported that heptyl and its derivatives were urgently disposed of at the plant at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

On Tuesday, July 26, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Prospect Foundation organized the sixth annual Ketagalan Forum, an Indo-Pacific-focused security dialogue. A particularly pressing issue at the dialogue was the impact of the ongoing Russian invasion in Ukraine on security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Speakers invited to the event underscored the importance of including Taiwan in multilateral intelligence and security frameworks. Mark Ho (何志偉), a legislator of the Democratic Progressive Party representing Taipei City's second electoral district, argued, "Taiwan can consistently collect [...] precious military information [on the PLA]. But Taiwan lacks channels to exchange information and intelligence with like-minded partners. Communication is as important as deterrence." Moreover, former President of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves called for the formation of a new security alliance focused on digital threats which allow for Taiwan's membership. "We need a digital alliance like NATO but one that is truly value-based and includes all liberal democracies that wish to be a part of it, but are not bound by geography. Threats faced by liberal democracies are no longer bound by geography," asserted Ilves.

This week also marks the 45th annual Wan'an air defence exercise and the live-fire component of the 38th Han Kuang exercise. According to defence ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fang (孫立方), the objective of the Wan'an exercise is to raise public awareness of emergency warnings to reduce the possibility of casualties and damage should an attack occur. All traffic halts and people are ordered to stay indoors for thirty minutes. Meanwhile, the Han Kuang exercise is widely regarded as Taiwan's most significant war game. It involves all branches of the military and is seen as an illustration of the ROC army's capability to coordinate and counteract an invasion. This year's exercises are taking place amid very high tensions in the Taiwan Strait, exacerbated by China’s increasingly belligerent stance vis-à-vis the island democracy.