Russian military infrastructure is attacked on the eve of Ukrainian potential counteroffensive |
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- Ukraine to prepare a counteroffensive operation
- Russian infrastructure under attack
- How to respond?
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Panic as Russia orders evacuation of towns surrounding Zaporizhzhia power plant |
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- Increased fighting puts Zaporizhzhia at risk
- Despite warnings, many remain hesitant to leave
- What to do?
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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- The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation stated that Ukraine is needed by the West only as an object of exploitation of available natural resources
- Russian media claim, that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are incapable of countering Russian missiles
- Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Ukraine of a terrorist drone attack on Kremlin
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Russian military infrastructure is attacked on the eve of Ukrainian potential counteroffensive |
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Ukraine to prepare a counteroffensive operation |
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Over the last weeks, the number of air and sabotage attacks in Russia increased significantly. Ukrainians mostly neither deny nor confirm their responsibility for the attacks. Russian railway, oil, and military infrastructure were mostly targeted. The choice of targets and strike intensity can potentially be part of Ukrainian preparation for the looming massive offensive campaign to be launched soon. For that, Ukraine seeks to test Russian defence capabilities as well as disrupt the military supply chains.
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Russian infrastructure under attack |
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On April 29, loitering munitions attacked the oil depot in Russian-held Sevastopol. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, the explosions resulted in the destruction of more than 10 tanks with approximately 40,000 tons of oil products, which were stored to supply the Russian naval forces in the occupied Crimea. On May 3, another UAV targeted the oil depot in the Krasnodar region in Russia. A tank with petroleum products caught fire following the fall of a drone. Another oil refinery in the same region was hit twice on May 4–5. In the nearby Rostov Oblast, an oil facility was shelled with a UAV on May 4. Besides, at the beginning of May, in the Bryansk Oblast of the Russian Federation, neighbouring Ukraine's Chernihiv region, two freight trains carrying fuel and construction materials derailed due to a railroad detonation. At least fifteen wagons were overturned in both incidents. The region's governor announced that the derailing resulted from a sabotage action, potentially by a Ukrainian or a pro-Ukrainian group. British intelligence argued that Russia is likely forced to introduce changes to the fuel storage and distribution network and the sabotage activities caused short-term localized disruption to Russian military rail movements.
Russian officials also reported that Ukrainian drones targeted three Russian regions bordering Ukraine on 10 May. The governor of Voronezh Oblast informed that two drones attacked a military training facility in the region on May 10. A Russian media agency claimed that 14 soldiers were injured. What is more, the governors of Belgorod and Kursk oblasts claimed the UAVs attack in the mentioned region. One drone was intercepted near Kursk city. Another one hit a building on the border to the Ukraine city of Shebekino. These strikes highlight Ukraine's increasing willingness to target specific objects deep in Russian territory, though Ukrainian authorities never claim responsibility for such strikes.
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The intensification of air and sabotage assaults against a wide range of military targets in Russia demonstrates the intention of Ukraine to complicate the Russian ground defence during anticipating a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The tactics of using cheap but short-range loitering munitions as well as sabotage actions against oil and infrastructure resulted in notable damage to the Russian fuel supply.
However, the Russian side is likely to secure logistics by changing the supply chains and facilitating the existing one with the additional air defence, which creates challenges to reaching the Russian logistics by UAVs. That is why Ukraine needs long-range missiles and attack drones to continue its successful operations against critical Russian military targets. Even though the UK decided to supply Kyiv with long-range missiles, the Ukrainian government should continue to convince the US to start the supply.
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Panic as Russia orders evacuation of towns surrounding Zaporizhzhia power plant |
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Increased fighting puts Zaporizhzhia at risk |
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Since early May, Russia has begun the evacuation of towns and areas surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Power Plant as fighting intensifies between the Russians and Ukrainians. So far Russian-installed officials have claimed that “Some 1,679 people, including 660 children, have been evacuated from areas near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.” The head of the UN’s nuclear agency has consistently warned that the surrounding area and the stability of the power plant itself becomes increasingly threatened as shelling has increased in recent days.
These calls for evacuations have increased in the past week as both Ukraine and Russia prepare spring counter-offensives. Marked with increased shelling, fighting, and other military action, Zaporizhzhia and its territory has become an increasingly important target for the Ukrainians to recapture as the plant provides a significant amount of energy to the region and provides a solid checkpoint as they march their way towards Crimea. These evacuations from an increasingly destabilizing situation come as efforts to secure a safe zone for the power plant continue to fail.
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Despite warnings, many remain hesitant to leave |
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While Russia has said the evacuations are ongoing, there is evidence that few are genuinely heading these orders. This is the result of confusion among Ukrainians in the occupied territories as revealed by a New York Times article delving into how Ukrainians feel about the evacuations. Interviewing a resident of the region, he shares that “They discharge people from the hospitals and take away the equipment… Then they close them. No one explains why and for how long. And people are afraid to ask since there are armed soldiers around” Many of the interviews are unable to be verified due to restricted access to the area, forcing many interviews and statements to come from third parties.
Already, Russia claims that over 70,000 have been evacuated and relocated to temporary housing centres. Despite this, there has been criticism of the Russian evacuations, with those claiming it was nothing more than a humanitarian effort to cover a military evacuation. Both Ukrainian and Western officials have claimed that Russia has only evacuated those who accept Russian passports and prioritized Russian citizens and soldiers over Ukrainians. As a result, Ukrainian officials have pointed out that while there has been some level of evacuations, they have had minimal citizens participate and more panic is coming from Russian decisions to remove money from ATMs, discharge hospital patients, and remove other key resources rather than any threat from Ukrainian offensives.
Despite a few Ukrainians participating in evacuations, the threat of a nuclear disaster should not be discounted. Regardless of the purposes behind Russia’s evacuation orders, the implications of the threat to the power plant remain genuine. The urgency to secure a deal to protect the plant and its surrounding area has become more pressing as IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi continues to push Ukraine and Russia to agree.
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Because of this threat that will impact a massive part of the world, Ukraine and Russia must immediately agree to a bare minimum of three agreements. Firstly, both parties must agree to avoid intensive fighting in the area surrounding the power plant. This should come with the agreement of a safe demilitarized zone that is free from soldiers and weapons of either country. Secondly, Russia must allow the evacuation of citizens to be completely free and without conditions. They should not force Ukrainians to obtain Russian passports to become safe nor should they force citizens to relocate to Russian resettlement zones. They should immediately provide safe passage for citizens to safely leave the area and travel to the places they want. Finally, regardless of which country claims control over the plant and the area around it, they must allow frequent and free inspections of the plant by UN inspectors.
This should come with allowing reports and findings to be undoctored and unrestricted. This is not a situation that can be hidden from the public to save the reputation of whoever controls the plant at the time. We have learned of this mistake in Chernobyl and the accidents that could occur at Zaporizhzhia would be catastrophic and claim millions of lives.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation stated that Ukraine is needed by the West only as an object of exploitation of available natural resources |
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The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev in an interview with a Russian newspaper said, that the war of the West with Russia will last to the last Ukrainian because the US needs Ukraine as an object of merciless exploitation of existing natural resources without indigenous population and the preservation of Ukraine as a state is not included in the plans of the US.
This narrative aims to present the Western countries, in particular, the US, to the domestic Russian audience as a hegemony with expansionist policy, which exploits the natural resources and territory of Ukraine to wage war against Russia.
The US policy towards Ukraine against the backdrop of Russia's invasion involves stabilizing and rebuilding Ukraine's economy and its capacity to win the war in the short term and, over the long term, building the political and economic resilience of Ukraine. The US-led international support remains a crucial instrument for improving Ukraine's economic, governmental and military capacity to defend itself against non-democratic states, which attempt to pursue their interests. Therefore, The US must maintain its course on Ukraine because it is essential for the protection of the global world order and democratic values. The defeat of Ukraine would create a more dangerous and unstable world.
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Russian media claim, that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are incapable of countering Russian missiles |
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Russian media published an article, which claims, that the Ukrainian Armed Forces allegedly recognized the fact, that they are not capable of countering Russian missiles. To support this narrative, the article refers to the phrase, said by Ukrainian aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko on the broadcast of the Ukrainian TV channel NTA.
Such conclusions of the Ukrainian expert are another attempt at fact manipulation by Kremlin propaganda since the aviation expert Valery Romanenko did not make such statements during his interview with the NTA TV channel. While answering the question about changes in tactics of the Russian Armed Forces, Romanenko talked about the improvement of Russian weapons and their improved ability to resist radar systems. During the interview, no question about any inability of the Ukrainian army to resist Russian missiles was asked.
On the contrary, both the President of Ukraine and US Air Forces expert, note that the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defence increased significantly during the period of full-scale war with Russia - up to 80%.
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Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Ukraine of a terrorist drone attack on Kremlin |
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Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement, condemning the attempts of terrorist acts committed against the Moscow Kremlin with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles. The statement holds the Ukrainian government and Ukrainian Armed Forces responsible for the drone attack.
These accusations were refuted by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a press conference at the Nordic-Ukrainian summit in Helsinki. Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has no intention to attack Moscow since the only goal of Ukraine is the withdrawal of Russian Armed Forces from Ukrainian territory. The President also noted that Russia is trying to use the accusations to motivate its soldiers to go to war against Ukraine, which it has not succeeded in its plans.
In addition, analysts of the Institute for the Study of War suggest, that the drone strike on Kremlin was likely staged by Russian authorities to justify limitations of May 9th celebrations, frame the invasion of Ukraine as existential to Russia's domestic audience and create the conditions for wider public mobilization.
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Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko – Skylar Young - Danylo Stonis
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