BALKANS WATCH BRIEFING
July 2020

Poseur Punditry

In times of crisis, one of the best ways to get the public to switch its attention from the accountability of the government is to amplify stories about foreign-orchestrated – often conspiratorial - efforts to destabilize the Western Balkans. On July 3, a story that was circulated by Večernje Novosti, claiming that the BiH state intelligence agency (OSA-OBA) is preparing a faked report of various, fabricated means of Russian assistance to the regions Serb populations.

Russia's Miracle Medinces in the Media

Seductively false narratives about purported advancements in the Russian medical sector have been circulated in the Balkans for years and it was especially pronounced during the pandemic. At a time when the coronavirus is still peaking, disinformation about a “cure’s” discovery is gravely dangerous. One especially baseless Russian health narratives concerns alleges that clinical trials of the world's first vaccine against the coronavirus have been successfully completed in Russia.

Disinformation in North Macedonian Elections

In recent years, elections are accompanied by increasingly targeted influence campaigns. In North Macedonia, such electoral “influence” amounts to undermining confidence in the election processes for whatever anti-democratic ends. The recent parliamentary elections in North Macedonia showed no different, with the peddling of false narratives at all stages.

Poseur Punditry

In times of crisis, one of the best ways to get the public to switch its attention from the accountability of the government is to amplify stories about foreign-orchestrated – often conspiratorial - efforts to destabilize the Western Balkans. As during previous elections, certain media outlets in collaboration with officials from Republika Srpska government promote tales of foreign operatives planning different actions against its government, e.g. mobilizing local agitators in opposition. Aiming to legitimate these false narratives, the local media amplify an established a group of dubious pundits that they refer to in terms such as “experts in fighting international terrorism”, “ex-intelligence operatives” and the like. The following illustrates the means of their amplification.

On July 3, a story that was circulated by Večernje Novosti, claiming that the BiH state intelligence agency (OSA-OBA) is preparing a faked report of various, fabricated means of Russian assistance to the regions Serb populations. The alleged report was purported to contain stories of Russian training in destabilization operations to groups in Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Republika Srpska.

The Večernje Novosti story of the fictitious OSA_OBA report was then cited in remarks by Dževad Galijašević, an alleged “expert for international terrorism” who frequently affords unsubstantiated commentary on various pro-Serb media and public media of Republika Srpska over the past years Galijašević has been repeatedly identified by Raskrinkavanje.ba as a primary purveyor of conspiracy theories in BiH. His remarks were then recycled by multiple media outlets from BiH and Serbia, adding claims of the “preparation of migrants for war with Republika Srpska” and “OSA-OBA listening to the phones of Republika Srpska and Serbia” officials.

In its debunk from July 14, Raskrinkavanje refuted all of the claims made in these articles. Moreover, researchers discovered a set of similar claims published over several years through various channels, each time by using same or similar pundits bereft of any proper source citation.

The establishment and use of pundits to propel disinformative narratives are recognized as one of the most threatening tactics in the region, given traditional media reports’ assumed credibility and reach (e.g. the Večernje Novosti story was recycled by 15 media outlets). Lacking source citation behind their statements, these pundits’ narratives are especially challenging to debunk.

Russia's Miracle Medinces in the Media

Russia is not known for its hospitals or national health care system. In fact, what is known doesn't speak well for either. The 67-year-old life expectancy of men in Russia is roughly twelve years shorter than Germans and Brits, and five years shorter than Poles and Serbs. Cardiovascular diseases – many of which are preventable - are the largest killers, claiming 57% of Russian lives annually versus 37% in Germany. Currently, Russia claims the fourth-largest number of COVID cases worldwide, assuming that the state's capacity and honest commitment to recording actual numbers.

Seductively false narratives about purported advancements in the Russian medical sector have been circulated in the Balkans for years and it was especially pronounced during the pandemic. Messaging to Montenegrin audiences promotes the unsubstantiated glorification of Russian doctors, Siberian miracle medicaments and their quantum medicine. In recent years, publications on alternative Russian medicine are increasingly available at newsstands across the Balkans. On a more benign level, their content consists of everyday health tips framed as "Russian advice"; however, this content is outright dangerous when it promotes unproven drugs for dangerous diseases. For example, the print magazine Russian Herbalist recommends drinking a petrol-based solution to treat cancer with the warning "that there have been cases of negative effects and poisoning." Such claims offer false hope to people who cannot afford quality private health care, potentially endangering their lives[1].

Sputnik’s Serbia service reported that Russia had made a medicament to treat coronavirus. The article states that the Russian Federal Agency for Biomedicine successfully prepared a coronavirus treatment based on the antimalarial drug mefloquine. In addition to the fact that no drug has yet been officially acknowledged as a remedy for COVID-19, it remains unclear how Russia "made" this drug. Mefloquine is an antimalarial that was discovered by the US military in the 1970s and it has been used since the 1980s; a similar claim about favipiravir as a Russian remedy. Favipiravir is not a Russian drug but a Japanese one. Moreover, Russia is not the only country where it is being tested in the fight against coronavirus.

At a time when the coronavirus is still peaking, disinformation about a “cure’s” discovery is gravely dangerous. Sputnik wrote of a potential drug that Russian doctors are working on with the guarantee that with its use, "nine out of ten people will not die with timely treatment." The reality is that these drugs serve only to alleviate the symptoms and the necessary care of the sick until recovery.

One especially baseless Russian health narratives concerns alleges that clinical trials of the world's first vaccine against the coronavirus have been successfully completed in Russia. One headline asserts that the mass production of vaccines against Covid-19 in Russia will start in August. Currently, there are 23 vaccines in the clinical trial phase (including one Russian) with more than 140 are candidates for the vaccines that are evaluated by the World Health Organization. To date, none have been approved for mass production and distribution.

[1] Global Voices. Kako alternativni zdravstveni časopisi povećavaju meku moć Rusije na Balkanu. Retrieved from https://sr.globalvoices.org/2019/04/kako-alternativni-zdravstveni-casopisi-povecavaju-meku-moc-rusije-na-balkanu/

Disinformation in North Macedonian Elections

In recent years, elections are accompanied by increasingly targeted influence campaigns. In North Macedonia, such electoral “influence” amounts to undermining confidence in the election processes for whatever anti-democratic ends. The recent parliamentary elections in North Macedonia showed no different, with the peddling of false narratives at all stages.

Levica’s (The Left) party leader, professor of law Dimitar Apasiev, claimed that the ballots printed featured neither serial numbers nor other unique means of identification, leaving them allegedly subject to simple fraud. Apasiev’s claims were widely disseminated as legitimate, aware of the fact is that ballots issued to the voters do not display serial numbers; rather, that number is located on the ballot's stub.

During election night, the State Election Commission’s (SEC) official webpage for election results was subject to a cyber-attack at the same time as Macedonia’s most popular news aggregator time.mk. Absent either, the public was denied of the initial results from the elections, opening the door for conspiratorial rumours and fake news. Mistakes on the SEC webpage according to which ethnic Albanian parties won in polling stations in predominantly Macedonian areas were misused to claim the elections were allegedly rigged in favour of Albanian parties, thereby sowing ethnic discord. The timing of these attacks and attendant disinformation well suggests that they were part of a well-orchestrated effort to weaken North Macedonia’s electoral integrity.