Orban’s foreign policy priorities & Ukrainian-Hungarian Relations |
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- Existence in the financial sense
- Hungarian anti-US “neutrality”
- Orban’s anti-Ukrainian vision
- How to respond?
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Ukraine Renews Call for U.S. Promised Patriot System After Brutal Strike on Sloviansk |
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- Death Count Rises as Rescuers Search Destroyed Apartment
- Ukraine Needs Additional Ammunition to Prevent Similar Attacks
- What to do?
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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- Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims, that weapons, sent to Ukraine, are spread around the world
- Belarusian dictator asks for Russia's military assistance due to the threat from Poland and Lithuania
- The State Duma accuses the US of testing biological weapons in Ukraine
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Orban’s foreign policy priorities & Ukrainian-Hungarian Relations |
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Existence in the financial sense |
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Since the very beginning of the Russian unprovoked and unjustified full-scale invasion, Hungary was balancing relations between the West and Russia, however, Budapest has not changed its antipathic position towards Ukraine and continued to articulate the Moscow-held propaganda into public debate. On 14 April, the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, said that Ukraine, in the financial sense, is "a country that does not exist." Russian side and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine have already reacted to this.
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Hungarian anti-US “neutrality” |
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On April 12, the Orban-controlled party, Fidesz issued a statement declaring that "US diplomacy is trying to push Hungary to join the warring side and the US embassy has launched a pro-war campaign in the country.” The declaration came with a message that Hungary will not retreat from its ‘neutrality’ policy, as this would drag the country into the conflict.
Interestingly, pro-government mass media started to be openly hostile to U.S. foreign policy, following the U.S. sanctions recently placed on the International Investment Bank, which is a Russian and Hungarian-owned institution. Government-friendly media outlets are declaring that "The USA betrays all its allies and stabs them in the back" or alleging that “the USA is preparing for a world war.“ Another common narrative maintains that Russia - China alliance reflects American weakness. The bottom line for Orbán’s media lackeys is that the United States is the aggressor.
However, Orban’s effort to maintain the dependence on Russian oil, gas and nuclear fossils was displayed during Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s recent talks in Moscow on energy supplies and other Russian investments. At the same time, the strengthening of bilateral economic cooperation between Belarus and Hungary was discussed with Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik arriving in Budapest.
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Orban’s anti-Ukrainian vision |
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"The country (Ukraine) cannot finance itself. The question is whether we will save Ukraine or not. As soon as we say no, the war ends," an official said. According to Orban, it is not possible to "finance Ukraine endlessly". Orban believes that Europe pays for Ukrainian pensions, salaries, education and health care instead of spending on its own needs. However, Budapest itself works on convincing the European Commission to receive the EU funds for post-pandemic recovery and to close the gap between poorer and wealthier regions.
What is even more, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Oleg Nikolenko wrote that this was another anti-Ukrainian statement. "It is cynical that the Hungarian leadership speaks about the financial issues of other countries at a time when Hungary itself receives a lot of money from the European Union to support its economic stability," An official emphasized.
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The positive reaction in the Kremlin is not a surprise. Viktor Orban's statement has already been commented on by Deputy Head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev, who praised the Hungarian Prime Minister's thoughts: "Well done, bold and precise for a European politician." The Hungarian authorities should be grateful to the Ukrainian side for maintaining a transit of the Russian fossil fuels, namely oil to Budapest, during wartimes.
Orban’s focus on Russian resources is a risky energy policy, considering the security of supply in a war-effected environment, and still is a source of money for the Kremlin to continue an illegal invasion. As the Orban’s vision is both anti-Ukrainian and mostly pro-Russian, Kyiv should reconsider the Russian oil transit through Ukrainian territory to Hungary.
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Ukraine Renews Call for U.S. Promised Patriot System After Brutal Strike on Sloviansk |
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Death Count Rises as Rescuers Search Destroyed Apartment |
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On the afternoon of 14 April, eight surface-to-air missiles were launched by Russia striking Sloviansk, a city in the Donetsk region. These strikes killed 15 people and injured 28 as they demolished a five-story apartment building. While extensive rescue efforts were undertaken, they were finalized only three days after the strike.
While it is greatly concerning that Russia seems to be targeting areas heavily populated by civilians, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in February warned that Ukraine was in desperate need of additional ammunition to reverse any threat the Russian air force may pose to key sites across Ukraine. Without this assistance, Ukraine may see more devastating assaults from the Russian air force as Ukraine begins to lack the capabilities to secure its skies.
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Ukraine Needs Additional Ammunition to Prevent Similar Attacks |
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Both Ukraine and NATO have called on its allies for a steady stream of air defence aid to Ukraine to thwart the Russian offensive, and these calls have not gone unanswered. In late December 2022, the U.S. The Department of Defense announced they would be giving Ukraine a Patriot Battery along with other ammunition. While the U.S. Patriot Battery is expected to arrive after Orthodox Easter, Germany recently marked its delivery of a Patriot Battery to Ukraine as delivered. The Netherlands has also announced its intention to provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot Battery while Italy and France have offered SAMP/T Anti-Missile systems.
While these two batteries and air defence systems will provide great relief in averting similar tragedies such as the assault on Sloviansk, continual aid must continue to ensure that Russia does not secure air superiority. Now that Ukrainian troops have completed training in Oklahoma over the use of Patriot Batteries, it is expected that the third battery will arrive with these troops. This aid should provide Ukraine with significant relief from potential air assaults as they gear up for a spring offensive.
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While the announcement of the Patriot Battery being a part of an aid package to Ukraine by the U.S., it is time to hand it over to Ukraine. The U.S. must accelerate the process of deploying the missile defence systems as it serves as an assurance that Russia is not able to continue its brutal campaign against civilian infrastructure.
Nevertheless, it is equally important that Russia must be called on by both adversaries and allies to respect the laws of war and stop targeting civilian buildings such as schools, apartments, hospitals, etc. under the guise of targeting military bases.
There is never a justification to slaughter civilians in these buildings and Russia’s decision to do so amounts to war crimes. These crimes must immediately be halted and Russia's, as well as its supporters, involvement, must be investigated to the fullest and charged with these acts. The world cannot allow any nation to harm civilians in hopes of draining morale in any situation and doing so potentially produces a disturbing new status quo.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims, that weapons, sent to Ukraine, are spread around the world |
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On April 12, an official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova during the briefing said, that weapons, sent by the Western countries are used by Ukraine's Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries to attack residential areas of cities, civilian infrastructure and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Moreover, Western weapons, sent to Ukraine, in particular, anti-aircraft and anti-tank systems, due to rampant corruption in political and military circles of Ukraine are spread around the world, emerging in other regional conflicts and falling into the hands of organized crime, terrorists and extremists, including Europe. According to Russia's MFA representative, the aforementioned challenges will not leave anyone behind, posing a threat to the internal security of every state on the European continent, in particular in the field of civil aviation.
However, no clear evidence of weapons used by terrorists and extremists was presented. This disinformation narrative is aimed to discourage EU members from supplying weapons to Ukraine and to undermine Ukraine's reputation in the international arena. On the contrary, Ukraine has tightened control over supplies of Western weapons by founding the Public Anti-Corruption Council as an advisory body of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
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Belarusian dictator asks for Russia's military assistance due to the threat from Poland and Lithuania |
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On April 10, the meeting between President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu, Lukashenko was held in Minsk. One of the topics tackled the issue of combat training and coordination of a joint Russo-Belarusian military group. Lukashenko appreciated the stationing of Russian military personnel in Belarus, stressing that there is no time to relax since Poles and Lithuanians have begun to move in the direction of Belarus.
The narrative, made by the President of Belarus is likely an attempt to avoid the involvement of Belarusian soldiers in the fight against Ukraine. Many people from Belarus and Ukraine share close ties, including family ones, thus the majority of Belarus' population is not interested in direct involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
According to Anna Krasulina, the spokeswoman of the Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, in the current situation, Belarusian soldiers may turn their arms against their dictator or go over to the side of Ukraine, or at least lay down their arms. Nevertheless, the stationing of an additional Russian contingent on the territory of Belarus may create an atmosphere of fear among Belarusians, thus strengthening Lukashenko’s rule.
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The State Duma accuses the US of testing biological weapons in Ukraine |
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The speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Volodin said, that NATO and the US use Ukraine as a testing ground for biological weapons and new methods of warfare. Volodin also stressed, that Western governments instead of developing their own countries and solving citizens’ problems, send their money to the war and maintenance of Ukraine’s government. Later the US ambassador in Russia, Lynne Tracy, was invited to the State Duma meeting to explain the activities of the US Biolabs in Ukraine, which are considered by Moscow as the interference of foreign states in the internal affairs of Russia.
These claims have been officially refuted by the US, the United Nations and by Russian scientists both inside and outside Russia, who refuted narratives of the Russian government, saying that documents presented by Russia's Defense Ministry only describe pathogens collected for public health research.
This disinformation was circulating in Russian media and official statements since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and was created to justify the invasion of Ukraine as a threat to Russia's security. The claim was also amplifiedby China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese state media.
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Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko – Skylar Young - Danylo Stonis
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