The EU has committed to becoming a net-zero economy by 2050 and achieve 55% emissions cuts in 2030, with many Member States having integrated this goal into national strategies. However, the bloc’s path toward achieving these two targets and bridging their gap through intermediate milestones remains unclear.

In our new study, published in Joule (here), we use five whole-system climate-economy models (GCAM, GEMINI-E3, ICES-XPS, EU-TIMES, NEMESIS) and two sectoral models (ALADIN, FORECAST), representing a wide range of economic theories and thereby enhancing the robustness of and confidence in the produced knowledge, to explore how the EU can keep net zero within reach by mid-century, offering insights into intermediate milestones and implications at sectoral and national levels.

Our results indicate that a 62% emissions reduction in the Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) and 40% in the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) compared with 2005 levels, as adopted in the context of ‘Fit for 55’, are indeed in line with cost-optimal pathways toward the bloc’s 55% emissions cuts target by 2030. However, to keep the goal of NZE within grasp, we also robustly indicate that the EU should start aiming for net zero in the EU-ETS sectors and over 50% emissions reductions in the ESR sectors by 2040. This entails total decarbonisation of electricity and complete phaseout of unabated coal power by 2040, as well as rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies and an 80% diffusion of renewables in the EU electricity mix by 2050. Our model analysis also hints at choices that the EU can make in a coordinated manner, which we couple with our most robust model insights to create a roadmap with strategic options on the path to net-zero (see the figure below).

At the member-state level, we find that most member states are broadly in line with their NZE targets, as reflected in their legally binding commitments or proposals. However, of the 27 EU member states, four (Austria, Greece, Ireland, and the Netherlands) do not reach their NZE commitments in any of our scenarios, whereas three (Cyprus, Denmark, and Germany) appear to do so only in some scenarios. Non-CO2 emissions appear to constitute the largest chunk of any remaining emissions in these countries, mainly followed by transport CO2 emissions. Overall, we find widespread trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors. We also highlight that there is no one-size-fits-all approach, as these countries should take sectorally targeted measures.

Feel free to read the full article here (open access):

• Boitier, B., Nikas, A., Gambhir, A., Koasidis, K., Elia, A., Al-Dabbas, K., Alibaş, Ş., Campagnolo, L., Chiodi, A., Delpiazzo, E., Doukas, H., Fougeyrollas, A., Gargiulo, M., Le Mouël, P., Neuner, F., Perdana, S., van de Ven, D.-J., Vielle, M., Zagamé, P., & Mittal, S. (2023). A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero. Joule, 7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2023.11.002

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Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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