- Cracks in the façade
- Silent rebels of the Internet
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- First Lady Jill Biden makes unannounced trip to Ukraine
- US ambassador to the UN says it’s not necessary to label Russia a state sponsor of terrorism
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- Kremlin’s Current Narrative
- Kremlin: The New Russia and the New World – After the Victory
- Russia: Europe stepped on its rake
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On the surface, Russia appears to be resisting the pile of sanctions it has been subjected to, but a closer look reveals a different reality. The country continues to profit from oil and gas sales, and this is resulting in the ruble seemingly strengthening after an initial significant drop. As a consequence, prices have indeed risen but there is no shortage of food on the shelves for now. This is not going to last as supplies will eventually run out and in the long term, the "state of denial" the country currently lives in will collapse, especially in large cities like Moscow. In fact, in other areas of the country, production facilities already know that they will soon be out of work because due to sanctions, the import of supplies from the West has been in decline.
In addition, Russia came very close to defaulting last month and had to pay "$650m to foreign creditors on two overdue Eurobonds” by May 4. This is ultimately showing Vladimir Putin's hypocrisy and Russia's financial vulnerability. To be able to pay, the Kremlin probably had to use a large amount of its available foreign exchange reserves from energy trade revenues, which it will likely lose soon as the EU is planning to reverse its dependence on Russian oil. This situation will also be exacerbated further by the rising costs of the war that is draining the Kremlin's finances without any obvious victories on the ground.
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Silent rebels of the Internet |
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Since the Kremlin's internet purge in March to gain total control over the narratives regarding the invasion of Ukraine, domestic demand for virtual private networks, and VPNs, has skyrocketed. This allows millions of Russians to access the material the government had blocked. The number of users is now estimated to be 50 times higher than in January, with still an estimated 300 thousand downloads per day two months later. VPNs are the best tool to bypass the Kremlin's misinformation and censorship, allowing access to information that can bring about a change in public opinion about the war. Free access to the internet is the best weapon for Russians to oppose Putin, and a digital rights group associated with opposition leader Alexei Navalny, The Internet Protection Society, launched its VPN and reached the limit of users, 300 thousand, in just 10 days.
The use of VPNs also helps activists not to be tracked by the Kremlin, which despite its efforts to block their services, had to realize the impossibility of totally banning their access as it would represent a difficult "technological challenge". Moreover, even Russian citizens who do not wish to oppose the government or criticize Putin, recognize the value of protecting their data and are increasingly afraid of the risks posed by the Kremlin's access to too much of their personal information in general. However, sanctions negatively affect the use of VPNs because Russian citizens may not be able to pay for the service due to the ban on credit and debit cards, finding themselves having to resort to those offering free services that may not be fully reliable and may cave to Kremlin pressure by giving up their information.
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First Lady Jill Biden makes unannounced trip to Ukraine |
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On Sunday, the first lady of the US Jill Biden visited Uzhhorod situated in the far southwestern part of Ukraine. During the trip, the first lady met with the Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska in a converted school that serves as a temporary shelter for displaced Ukrainians. Overall, the meeting between the two first ladies lasted for about one hour. Jill Biden’s visit to Ukraine came after the several visits made by the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. She is the latest high-profile American and the first family member of Joe Biden to visit the war-torn country. As Jill Biden noted during the meeting with Olena Zelenska, the main intention of her trip was to show the Ukrainian people that the American people stood with them and the war in Ukraine had to stop.
The Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska expresses her gratitude to the first lady of the US and assessed her trip to a war-torn country as a “courageous act”. As she stated, the Ukrainian people appreciated very much the US first lady’s visit to Ukraine amid the ongoing war. It is noteworthy that it was the first time when the Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska appeared in the public since the start of the war on 24 February. Zelenska and her children were at an undisclosed location for their safety. Jill Biden’s visit to Ukraine was an attempt to conduct the kind of personal diplomacy that her husband Joe Biden wanted to do himself. As he noted during his trip to Poland in March, he was disappointed that he could not see the conditions “firsthand” in Ukraine due to security concerns.
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US ambassador to the UN says it’s not necessary to label Russia a state sponsor of terrorism |
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Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN stated that the Biden administration doesn't need to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism as it has already "defined their role on that list". According to her, Russia's actions in Ukraine equal the terror acts against the Ukrainian people and the US does not need to put Russia on that list. As she stated in the interview with CNN, “Russia deserves to be called out for the acts of terror that they are committing”, but she did not answer whether or not the US had plans to add Russia to the list. Moreover, Linda Thomas-Greenfield emphasized the reports on the war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine and reiterated that the US is ready to continue to work with the Ukrainian prosecutors and others to document the evidence of Russia’s war crimes to hold it accountable for them.
As she noted, new war crimes such as the Russian bombing of a Ukrainian school overnight will be added to the “long list” of war crimes that already exists. According to Greenfield, as well as many other renowned experts, the terror acts resembling genocide, committed by Russia against the Ukrainian people intend to destroy Ukraine's actual existence. The ambassador's comments came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April asked Joe Biden to label Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. In particular, during the phone call with Joe Biden that was centred on the West's multifaceted response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy put forth the issue of labelling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. It is noteworthy that Joe Biden did not promise Zelenskyy any actions in this regard as such measure could have a range of impacts, including the imposition of economic penalties on dozens of other nations that continue to do business in Russia, such as the freezing of Moscow's assets in the US and prohibition of variety of exports.
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Kremlin: The New Russia and the New World – After the Victory |
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This year, the holiday of May 9, Victory Day, acquires a completely new meaning. Russia claimed that for the first time since '45, we are waiting for a new victory – without which the very existence of our state will be in question. Moreover, Kremlin stated that at the same time, a new victory does not cancel that great one, and does not just confirm it, it becomes the beginning of a new era in the life of our country and the whole world. And without victory, there will be no Russia. “That is why it is so important to understand who and what we must defeat – we cannot but win,” asserted Kremlin. Russia claims that Ukraine in its current form is only a visible enemy. According to Russia, it is clear that the key issue now is a military victory over anti-Russia on the battlefield. "This is an undisclosed question, but to achieve victory as soon as possible, we need to understand with whom and what we are fighting, who is confronting us, and what is hindering us," stressed Kremlin.
Furthermore, Kremlin
emphasized that the collective West, led by the Anglo-Saxon countries (or rather, their elites), is undoubtedly Russia’s main adversary in this battle, and it will not end after the guns in Ukraine fall silent. Kremlin said that confrontation with the West has acquired the forms of both a proxy war – when through Ukrainians they fight with Russia, who will be increasingly pumped with weapons, and an all-out economic and ideological war, the purpose of which as the Atlanticists directly declared is defeat, isolation, weakening and change of power in Russia. In this regard, Russia claimed that the conflict will lead to the capitulation of Russia with the removal of Putin or a severe crisis in the West, which will lead to the Anglo-Saxons losing control over the united West and its disintegration into at least two parts - the Anglo-Saxon world and Europe, with a simultaneous internal crisis in the United States, a key Western power.
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Russia: Europe stepped on its rake |
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Maria Butina, the author of the program on Sputnik radio claims that some rational grain awakened in Europe, an understanding that America is coming, selling weapons, wreaking havoc on the European continent, then leaving – but the problems remain. “I have a good feeling that these discussions are the realization that sanctions are harmful primarily to Europe itself and to each of the countries separately,” asserted Butina. “Look at the inflation data, look at the empty shelves of European stores. The situation is really difficult, they are already offered to save on hot water," said Maria Butina
on her author program on Sputnik radio. At the same time, Sergei
Naryshkin, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, and chairman of the Russian Historical Society claimed that Russia now, as in the time of Peter the Great, is resolutely fighting for its future and shows the whole world the vector of free and sovereign development for many decades to come.
Kremlin
claimed that in comparison with Russia, Europe now has a deadlock. “How to get out of this situation without losing face is unclear, and it seems that they want to win back the situation,” stated Kremlin. Therefore, in Russia’s
opinion, in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Europe will put the most pressure on Ukraine. Kremlin
stated that Europe needs to find a reason to resolve this conflict. Moreover, Kremlin
asserted that obviously, all these are fairy tales – that Europe can cope without Russian energy, and they do not need Russian gas is not true. “We are well aware of the economics of the issue – they need Russia in the literal sense like air,” concluded Kremlin.
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In a move broadly regarded as a sign of warming ties between Washington and Taipei, the US State Department amended its online fact sheet on relations with Taiwan. Specifically, the revised version of the fact sheet removed
prior statements about Washington’s acknowledgement of Beijing's "one China" position and did not support Taiwanese independence. Chinese state-affiliated media condemned this decision, calling it a “political manipulation on the Taiwan-related issue.” Moreover, as the decision was announced, a Chinese Z-10 attack helicopter crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait. This marks the first instance of a Chinese aircraft transgressing the median line since 2020.
As Taiwan continues to demonstrate its denouncement of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the scope of export controls imposed by the government in Taipei was expanded to also cover Belarus. The restrictions proscribe Taiwanese companies from exporting strategically important tech products to Belarus without obtaining a special permit. This move is regarded as largely symbolic, given that Taipei does not engage in substantial trade exchange with Minsk. According to the data of the Customs Administration under Taiwan's finance ministry, the total volume of trade exchange between Taiwan and Belarus in 2020 was valued at 28.6 million USD—a mere 3 per cent of the total value of trade with Czechia. At the same time, it sends an important signal about the normative and pragmatic alignment of Taiwan with the majority of the Western world in condemning the invasion and sanctioning Russia and Belarus.
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