The new level of Russian-Iranian military cooperation |
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- Unprecedented level of military and technical support
- Who benefits?
- Sanctions, sanctions, more sanctions?
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The United States imposes sanctions on Russian Entities Involved in UAV Deal with Iran |
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Belarusian parliament adopts death penalty bill for treason committed by officials |
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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- Russian weapons dealer is ready to go to war, but won't – "due to the lack of necessary skills"
- Russian propaganda targets Ukrainian refugees and the West for their “ill-treatment”
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The new level of Russian-Iranian military cooperation |
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Unprecedented level of military and technical support |
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On the 9th of December, NBC News wrote that Iran could receive modern military equipment, helicopters, and air defense systems from the Russian Federation. The representative of Great Britain at the UN said that Russia wants to receive hundreds of missiles from Iran in exchange for an "unprecedented level of military and technical support." Before the meeting of the UN Security Council, during a conversation with journalists, Woodward reminded that since August, Iran has handed over hundreds of drones to Russia, Ukrinform quotes. "Iran's proliferation poses a real and significant threat far beyond the region, to the entire international community," she said.
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At the same time, unnamed high-ranking officials of US President Joe Biden's administration told NBC Newswhat kind of help is being discussed. According to them, Russia can provide Iran with advanced military equipment and components. In particular, Tehran can get helicopters and air defense systems. The officials also said that in the spring, Iranian pilots trained in Russia to fly Russian fighter jets. This indicates that Iran may start receiving more aircraft during 2023. According to senior officials, Russia is also counting on cooperation with Iran in the development of weapons, in particular, probably on the creation of a joint line for the production of drones in Russia. "This partnership poses a threat not only to Ukraine but also to Iran's neighbors in the region," said one of the officials.
In November, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine confirmed that Iran and Russia were preparing agreements on the supply of Iranian ballistic missiles. At the same time, according to The Guardian, internal disputes began in Iran over the supply of drones to Russia, which it uses in the war with Ukraine. Several influential people have already publicly spoken against it. On December 6, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Iran has not yet sent a single missile to Russia.
According to the UK Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 10 December 2022, Russia is trying to get more weapons, including hundreds of ballistic missiles, as it is likely that it has already used up a large part of its Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, which carry a 500 kg warhead up to 500 km away. "If Russia succeeds in putting a large number of Iranian ballistic missiles into service, it will probably use them to continue attacks on the critical infrastructure of Ukraine," the intelligence officers say.
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Sanctions, sanctions, more sanctions? |
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Iran has become one of the main military sponsors of Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started. The analysis of reliable sources demonstrates that in the coming months, Iranian support of Russian unprovoked and unjustified war against Ukraine may increase. And Russia could gain new military equipment to continue its terroristic attacks against civilian infrastructure during winter time. At the same time, the new level of cooperation contributes to Iranian technological improvement in the sphere of defense. This will allow Iran to conduct more aggressive foreign policy toward all neighboring states in the region as well as undermine the balance of power and security architecture of the region. Ukrainian and European Union authorities should call on all regional players to apply strong economic sanctions against the most profitable sectors of the Iranian and Russian economies to make the militarization of both states too expensive.
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The United States imposes sanctions on Russian Entities Involved in UAV Deal with Iran |
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The New US Sanction Package against Russia |
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On Friday 9 the United States imposed sanctions on three Russian entities that are playing important roles in the Russian-Iranian military cooperation. In particular, the sanctioned entities are involved in transferring unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) from Iran to Russia. The Kremlin uses those UAVs in Ukraine, especially for large-scale attacks on civilian infrastructure. The entities which are sanctioned by the US are the following: the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), the 924th State Centre for Unmanned Aviation, and the Command of the Military Transport Aviation (VTA).
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The US Response to the Ongoing Partnership Development between Iran and Russia |
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The sanctions imposed by the US on the aforementioned entities are the US response to the unprecedentedly growing military partnership between Russia and Iran amid the war in Ukraine. According to the US intelligence services, the relations between the two countries are becoming a “full-scale defense partnership”. Russia has already deployed Iranian drones in Ukraine since august and they are being used against civil and energy infrastructure. Besides, dozens of Iranians were deployed in Crimea while the Russians were sent to Iran to be instructed for using drones.
The increasing defense partnership between Iran and Russia raised serious security concerns for the US. The White House national security spokesman John Kirby assessed this partnership as “harmful” not only to Ukraine but to Iran’s neighbors and international security overall. Moreover, he provided further information on rapidly developing relationships between Russia and Iran in the defense sector. According to John Kirby, Russia seeks to bolster its partnership with Iran in terms of weapons development and training as well as envisions establishing a joint production line for lethal drones in Russia.
In response to such developments between the two countries, the Secretary of State Antony Blinken highlighted that the United States would continue to use every tool at its disposal to disrupt these transfers and impose consequences on the entities involved in these activities. It is worth noting that besides the sanctions imposed on three Russian entities, the Biden administration announced the 27th drawdown from weaponry of the Defence Department arsenals for providing Ukraine with them. The new package is worth $275 million and includes an additional 155mm artillery shells and ammunition for HIMARS, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, “counter-air defense”, and “counter-unmanned aerial systems” equipment. It is worth noting that the package contains weaponry that is specifically targeted at countering Iranian drones.
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Countering further development of the partnership between Iran and Russia in the defense sector requires a more consolidated and coordinated response from the West’s part. Despite the imposed sanctions on both Russia and Iran from different Western countries, both countries effectively continue developing their cooperation in the defense sector which poses a serious threat not only to Ukraine but the whole international security architecture. Consolidating like-minded countries which condemn Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and adopting a common strategy in terms of curbing further development of this partnership between Russia and Iran might be the best solution to this issue.
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Belarusian parliament adopts death penalty bill for treason committed by officials |
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On 7 December, the House of Representatives of the Belarusian National Assembly (BNA) adopted a bill introducing the possibility of the death penalty for treason committed by government officials and service members. According to the House of Representative's statement, the draft bill also added an article aiming to establish responsibility for "deliberately disseminating false information that discredits the armed forces, other troops, military formations, and paramilitary organizations of Belarus." The bill also specifies monetary penalties and the arrest of people for a period of 10 to 20 days. The draft law passed by Belarusian deputies in the first reading must be adopted in a second reading, approved in the upper house of the Belarusian National Assembly, and signed by President Alexander Lukashenko to become effective. Belarus is the only European country where the death penalty is enshrined as a measure of punishment at the legislative level. In the spring of this year, high-ranking Belarusian officials passed a law on the death penalty for attempting a terrorist attack. The European Union has repeatedly called on Belarus to abolish the death penalty.
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The desperate attempt to boost the morale of the Belarusian army |
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During almost ten months of Russian aggression, there have been many reports of preparations for the Belarusian army's invasion of Ukraine. Since May, the country has been continuously conducting military exercises, training territorial troops, checking the mobilization potential, and recently Belarus has begun a sudden check of the army's combat readiness. Despite this, Belarusians do not want to fight in Ukraine; only 3% of citizens support such a decision. In addition, dissatisfaction and internal resistance are growing in Belarus, which is why Lukashenko is introducing new repressive and punishment measures. The main reason why the Lukashenko regime has not yet dared to throw its troops against Ukraine is uncertainty about their loyalty and fear of military rebellion. Many officials, military, and security forces do not want Russia to use them as "cannon fodder." And no one wants the war to be on the territory of Belarus. Introducing the death penalty for the military is a desperate attempt to strengthen the discipline and loyalty of the Belarusian army.
According to the Institute for the Study of War analysts, an invasion of Belarus and an open war against Ukraine is "quite unlikely" soon, despite the information campaigns of the Russian authorities and collaboration on the part of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. The Command of the Territorial Defense Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine closely monitors changes in the situation on the border with Belarus. However, such a scenario cannot be completely excluded. For Putin, Belarus' direct involvement in the war is one of the few unused trump cards in a stalemate on the battlefield. The Kremlin is pressing the Belarusian regime, leaving it with fewer and fewer opportunities to evade direct support for Russian aggression in Ukraine. Evidence of this is the creation of a joint grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus on the territory of Belarus; the preparation of provocations in Belarus by the Russian special services; the mysterious death of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of RB Makei, etc.
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The regime of Alexander Lukashenko is responsible for the invasion of the Russian army on the territory of Ukraine, as it allows the use of the territory of Belarus for military purposes. The international community must increase pressure on the dictator's regime and support the Belarusian opposition in exile. At the same time, international human rights defenders must record all the crimes of the Lukashenko regime against Ukraine and its citizens. These facts will become evidence for future court decisions against the dictatorial authority.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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Russian weapons dealer is ready to go to war, but won't – "due to the lack of necessary skills" |
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Last week, the US exchanged Russian weapons dealer Viktor Bout (aka "merchant of death") for basketball star Brittney Griner, who flew to Russia in early 2022 and was arrested at a Moscow airport for possessing cannabis oil. While Griner is reported to have resumed practicing basketball, Bout, a former Soviet military officer, who was serving a 25-year prison sentence in the US on charges of conspiring to kill Americans, conspiring to acquire and export anti-aircraft missiles, and conspiring to provide support to a Colombian terrorist organization, has joined ultranationalist LDPR party of late Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Throughout his term in prison, Viktor Bout has maintained that he is innocent, something that was supported by the Russian propaganda in RT’s recent televised interview with Bout.
In her opening remarks of RT’s propaganda show, journalist Maria Butina falsely claimed that Viktor Bout had been "in an American prison for too long without any trial or investigation" and that "he was imprisoned solely because he is Russian." Asked about the "special military operation" Bout expressed firm support for it and even stated that if he had "an opportunity and necessary skills" he would participate in it as a volunteer. Interestingly, like in Viktor Bout’s case, in 2007 a Russian security agent Andrei Lugovoi – wanted in the UK on suspicion of poisoning former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko the year before – joined the LDPR after fleeing London.
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Russian propaganda targets Ukrainian refugees and the West for their “ill-treatment” |
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As Russian forces continue shelling Ukrainian critical infrastructure, Kremlin mouthpieces are exploiting fear in Europeans, trying to change public discourse and divide existing unity among Ukraine’s critical allies. In doing so, there are concerns that Russian information operations can do real harm to Ukrainian refugees, which are often demonized, and the support for them is slipping in few European capitals. Ukrainian refugees are repeatedly blamed for everything from plotting terrorist attacks to burning forests and sowing division in society.
For example, one staged video falsely claimed that Ukrainian immigrants had burned down their German host's house after attempting to set fire to the Russian flag. The fake clip has been spread too wide audiences across social media in English, Russian and Bulgarian. Similarly, anti-refugee propaganda pinned blame on Ukrainian refugees when the fire broke out in a Spanish forest, falsely claiming that Ukrainians burned down a forest while burning, again, the Russian flag.
The Kremlin’s refugee-related propaganda campaign is twofold: first, it cynically claims that the Ukrainians who were forced to find shelter in Russia are treated with extreme care by the Russian authorities, completely ignoring the reports on how Moscow grabs Ukrainian children and makes them Russians; and it also blames the West for its alleged ill-treatment, falsely claiming that Bulgaria is sending refugees to prisons and that in Germany Ukrainians are forced to return the money spent on them.
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From “Special Military Operation” to a “Win or Die” total war |
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For months, the Kremlin propaganda insisted that, instead of being involved in a full-scale war with Ukraine, the Russian troops were simply carrying out a “special military operation” – for a while now, though this approach has changed. After returning “from the front”, Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov), former “defense minister” of the self-proclaimed “DNR” posted about his experience on his Telegram channel, drawing a rather pessimistic picture for his fellow Russians. "In most parts of the Russian Armed Forces, soldiers and officers do not understand what they are fighting for”, – he said. Neither do they know "what the conditions are for victory or for simply ending the war", Girkin went further, and added that they do not have "the slightest idea about the ultimate strategic goals of the current military campaign."
Days before Girkins's assessment of the situation, another notorious Russian figure Dimitry Rogozin named his version of what the end goal of the war should be. In his interview with RT, Russia's former ambassador to NATO claimed that “this war is an existential choice because if we don’t win it, we won’t lose it, we will cease to exist.” Comparing Ukraine to Nazi Germany, Rogozin further stated that Russians once considered Nazi Germany their brotherly nation. According to him, Russia now would only win if it takes Kyiv – a difficult task for a country armed by Iran and North Korea, and staffed by inexperienced conscripts.
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This newsletter is supported by the European Cultural Foundation
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In collaboration with experts from Information Defense Hub
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Itai Abraham – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
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