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Among other insightful results, we find that eliminating the EU’s reliance on Russian gas could drive further emissions cuts in hard-to-abate sectors and speed up the transition to renewables and electrification. In particular, among the three explored ‘corner’ options, we find that replacing Russian gas with other gas imports would have a very small impact on EU energy-related emissions, while replacing it with domestic clean energy alternatives would lead to an interplay between demand-side energy-related emissions decreasing and supply-side energy-related emissions increasing. Critically, investing heavily in energy efficiency could lead to the highest emission cuts in the demand side, although some concerns remain over a post-2040 rebound. Other benefits of energy savings and energy efficiency measures would include reduced investment needs and lower electricity prices.
Our exercise eventually highlights consequential trade-offs for policymakers to consider as the EU enters an uncharted energy landscape, and the policy brief has successfully fed into the European Commission’s 2040 target planning process.
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