The Decline of Shoulder Season
This sweet spot is quickly fading. The main culprits? Over-tourism, climate change, and the increasing popularity of year-round travel options. Let’s break it down.
1. Surging Tourism and the Extension of Peak Seasons
As tourism continues to surge, more and more destinations are seeing a shift in their travel seasons. Places that once had distinct high and low periods are now becoming increasingly crowded throughout the year. Take popular cities like Paris, Barcelona, or Venice—these once-shoulder-season-friendly spots now see a flood of visitors even in the traditionally quieter months.
Why? As travelers seek to escape peak-season crowds, they’re flocking to destinations during times when they used to be more peaceful. The result is that cities and resorts are seeing fewer dramatic differences between peak and shoulder season.
Additionally, some destinations are actively working to extend their peak seasons in order to boost revenue. Events and festivals that were once only held during the summer are now popping up year-round, keeping popular tourist destinations busier for longer periods.
The only sure way to avoid crowds and high prices is to travel during low season--have you been to Europe in the winter? It's a refreshing change, as long as you're prepared for chilly weather. As my group of 15 learned during an incredible January 2017 visit to Moscow, with proper clothing and footwear, you can have a positively grand time in the Russian winter!
2. The Rise of Year-Round Travel
Thanks to advancements in air travel and changes in global mobility, more people are choosing to travel year-round. Winter escapes to tropical destinations like the Caribbean or Southeast Asia, or trips to colder places such as Iceland or northern Scandinavia, have become routine for travelers.
As a result, shoulder seasons are growing shorter, as travelers fill in gaps with less conventional travel schedules.
Another factor may be the so-called Silver Tsunami. I'm at the tail end of the Baby Boom myself (some call it Generation Jones), and I'm not considering retirement anytime soon. But for the last 10-15 years, and continuing for another 5-10 years, the number of retired people in our country has been swelling. Not surprisingly, this generation now has the time for more frequent travel, and a year-round, wide-open schedule.
Remote work has also played a role in this shift. With flexible work arrangements, employees no longer have to wait for vacation days to travel, and destinations that were once seen as "off-season" are now attractive all year round.
3. The Effects of Less Predictable Weather Patterns
Another factor at play is climate change, which has muddled the predictable patterns of seasons. For instance, the weather in Europe might still be warm and pleasant in October, or winter snow may arrive later than expected in North America’s ski towns. Or you might encounter a historic European heat wave in mid-June. Historic average highs for Switzerland at that time of year are in the ideal range for many people, in the low 70s. But when I had a group of Dallas Opera patrons in Switzerland in 2019, it was around 100 degrees in Zurich for several days--even hotter than it was back in Texas. And Swiss air conditioning, when it exists at all, is NOT the same as Texas air conditioning!
In some places, this unpredictability can make travel more difficult, with rainy seasons extending longer or heat waves arriving earlier than before. These shifts in weather patterns are making shoulder season less reliable. Tourists can no longer count on pleasant weather or predictable conditions during these transition months. What was once a temperate time to explore is now a guessing game—leaving many travelers uncertain about when to book.
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