23. 02. 2023

• Lack of ammunition     
  
• Putting pressure on Shoigu   
  
• How to respond?

• Biden meets Zelenskyy in Kyiv  
  

• "One year later, Kyiv stands and Ukraine stands, democracy stands and America stands with you"

• What course of action should be suggested?  

• Russian disinformation targets Ukrainian refugees
  
• EUvsDisinfo exposes 12 predominant myths about Russia’s war in Ukraine   
  
• Putin repeats Soviet narratives about Western-imposed sanctions 

Recent news and public expression from Yevgenij Prigozhin raise doubts about the strength of ties between the profound leader of the so-called Wagner Group, a private military company that is fighting in Donbas, and the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defence. About a week ago, Wagner militants published a video in which they are asking the Ministry of Defence for ammunition to continue their combat efforts, especially around the city of Bakhmut, which Wagner and regular Russian soldiers trying to conquest for more than half a year.

It is not the first time that Wagner group personnel is trying to put pressure on the Russian Ministry of Defence, but now it seems that Prigozhin is trying to raise the stakes, and directly attacking Sergej Shoigu and Genadij Gerasimov.

“The sh-t is boiling, the blood is boiling, but the questions I asked about ammunition remain unanswered,” said the leader of the Wagner group, when it came to the situation at the frontline. Another wave of attacks came after two months when Prigozhin attacked Gerasimov (a supreme commander of the Russian military in Ukraine) for “his incompetence”. Today Prigozin published a very graphic photo of several dozen dead mercenaries and blamed Russian military leaders with the words:

“They didn’t give us ammunition and don’t give. Right now, it is 10 a.m., on February 22nd. No additional steps for ammunition were made. Where is the problem? I’ll answer. Here is the photo. This is the place where we collect our dead soldiers. Those guys died because of “ammo starvation”. The loss should be at least five times lower.”

The deprivation of PMC Wagner of ammunition leads to speculation that the Kremlin tries to lower Prigozhin’s influence in the Russian military and society. Since the conquest of Soledar, which was mainly conducted by the mercenaries, Putin’s chef was trying to gather even more influence by demanding more respect from the official military leaders and political elite. In this regard, Prigozhin was trying to get even more allies to extend his influence.

In October both the Chechen leader and head of the Wagner Group agreed on critics of the Russian official military elite while saying that Prigozhin mercenaries “deserve more respect from the commandment because all Russian soldiers are true and brave soldiers”. Nevertheless, now it seems that their alliance is not that strong after all. Kadyrov declined Prigozhin's offer to combine their resources to informationally stand against the Russian Ministry of Defence. Moreover, the Chechen leader said that his troops will conduct the order that would be given to them by officers chosen by Vladimir Putin and that he is even planning to create his PMC. It seems that Prighozin’s influence not only on Vladimir Putin but also on the political elite and even “allies” drops significantly.

As we see the possible “fall of the Russian military star”, the West should put additional pressure on Prigozhin criminal group. We’ve spoken about the necessity of putting PMC Wagner on the European list of Terrorist Groups and now it seems that we have the best timing to finally cause them serious damage.

The European and American governments should put Prigozhin mercenaries on the list of terrorist groups, which would to cutting off their Western ties, lower their influence in developing countries, especially Africa, and deprive financial gains from which Wagner Group buys ammunition and equipment. This might lead to a significant drop in their operational capabilities in Ukraine and ease the Ukrainian military in their efforts to liberate all occupied territories.

On 20 February, US President Joe Biden made an unannounced visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, where he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and offered long-term support for Ukraine's efforts against Russia. In particular, Biden pledged $450 million in security assistance, which included the Himars missile system, howitzer ammunition, air surveillance radars, and Javelin missiles. Biden also promised to impose new sanctions against individuals who seek to evade or undermine Russian aggression.

Shortly after Biden's visit, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a state of the nation address on 21 February in which he discussed the impact of Moscow's "special military operation" in Ukraine. Putin accused Ukraine and the West of provoking the conflict and announced that Russia would suspend its participation in the New START treaty with the US, which limits the nuclear arsenals of both countries. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, criticized Putin's decision as "deeply unfortunate and irresponsible."

The world watched with bated breath as US President Joe Biden made a symbolic visit to Ukraine, sending a strong message of support for the country amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. Despite the security situation in Ukraine, Biden's visit was a bold and decisive move that demonstrated America's unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. It was a powerful gesture of solidarity that not only represented a challenge to Russia but also a triumph for Ukraine. The unexpected nature of the visit made it all the more significant, and its impact will be felt for a long time to come.

Biden's involvement in the conflict dates back to his tenure as Vice President of the United States, during which he played a key role in shaping US policy towards the crisis. His efforts to support Ukraine in the conflict with Russia were notable, and his vocal support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity was widely regarded as a positive step for the country. Furthermore, Biden was a key figure in negotiations with Russia aimed at resolving the conflict, including the Minsk agreements in 2015, which aimed to broker a ceasefire and a political solution to the conflict.

Biden's visit to Ukraine was more than just a symbolic gesture. It was a clear message to the international community that the US is committed to supporting Ukraine in the future. The visit demonstrated America's capability to endure unpleasant circumstances and persist in its support of its allies. Biden's visit represented a significant challenge to Russia, and it showed that the US is not intimidated by Russia's aggression in the region.

However, just a few hours after Biden's visit, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at the Kremlin that projected an image of stability and confidence in Russia's ability to emerge victorious in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite lacking rhetorical diversity, the speech reinforced the perception that Putin may be out of touch with reality and convinced of the correctness of his policies. Russia's decision to withdraw from the nuclear warhead agreement with the US suggests a potentially more assertive posture going forward. Putin also surprised many by criticizing Russian oligarchs for trusting the West and offering them a path to forgiveness if they returned to Russia.

While Russia's actions indicate a desire to avoid a nuclear war, the high degree of unpredictability in their geopolitical behaviour and the opaque workings within the Kremlin compound make it difficult to forecast future events. The situation in Ukraine remains tense, and it is clear that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is far from over. However, with the US demonstrating its unwavering support for Ukraine, and Russia projecting a sense of stability and confidence, the stage is set for a tense and potentially volatile future. Only time will tell what the outcome of this conflict will be, but one thing is for sure: the world will be watching closely.

The key takeaway from Biden's visit to Ukraine is its symbolism. It carries significant implications not only for Ukraine but also for the Western powers, indicating the need to persist in providing arms and aid, which Ukraine urgently requires. Biden's visit also sends a clear message to Russia that the U.S. is committed to remaining a vital partner to Ukraine and will not be intimidated.

Other prominent leaders of Western powers should take inspiration from Biden's visit and consider visiting Ukraine again soon, particularly with the upcoming anniversary of the start of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Putin and his administration are unpredictable, and their actions are difficult to anticipate. However, as Ukraine's allies, we must persevere and remember that while peace is essential, it cannot be achieved without providing the necessary arms supplies to Ukraine.

Kremlin disinformation about Ukrainian refugees was in the spotlight last week. Pro-Russian and Russian users have been actively disseminating the false claim on social media that the Ukrainian government was allegedly seeking details of young men for military service among Ukrainian refugees in Britain (1,2,3).

The earlier campaign, involving doctored letters sent to Lithuanian and Latvian authorities was this time followed by the photos of fabricated letters, reportedly written by British Secretary of State for Levelling Up, Michael Gove, that began circulating online. The doctored letter, printed on British government-headed paper, is addressed to the “refugee host” and indicates that the recipient must provide details of any Ukrainian over 18 staying with them.

Although the letter looks authentic at the first glance, it contains some linguistic errors and does not read natively. Indeed, the Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities has already responded to the disinformation campaign on Twitter and clarified that the letter does not belong to them. Previously, the Lithuanian Department of Migration and the Ukrainian Embassy in Latvia have also issued a statement condemning the anti-Ukrainian disinformation campaign (1,2) and confirming that such letters were fake.

During Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin employed all the assets from its disinformation textbook. In parallel with Russia's destructive attacks and rain of explosives on Ukrainian cities, Putin has been continuously using the less visible but wide-reaching weapon to back its war on the battlefield. Since Russia's unprovoked and unjustified war started in Ukraine, the Kremlin's information warfare has become more instrumental and targeted, with a significant part of its propaganda dissemination taking place on social media.

The flagship project of the European External Action Service's East StratCom Task Force, EUvsDisinfo, recently published a report about 12 predominant myths deployed by the Russian disinformation ecosystem. The narratives include the false dilemma - "either Russia wins the war or the conflict will lead to WWIII", wide-spread claims that "Russia is at war with the West", long-maintained propaganda about "Ukrainians committing genocide in Donbas" - non of them are true. Read about Russia's major war-related myths and their debunks in the report.

False claims about Western-imposed economic sanctions on Russia have been one of the central pieces of Russian propaganda. Though the messages have gradually been changing, following the array of sanctions imposed on Russia, the manipulation strategy of the Kremlin propaganda has largely remained the same.

Soviet journalist and writer-publicist Vsevolod Ovchinnikov about US sanctions against the USSR in 1982: "the Soviet Union is a large country with a powerful economy and rich resources, so it will somehow survive these blockades and sanctions, but for Washington's allies who are much more dependent on foreign trade, the policy of 'cowboy attacks' on normal economic ties hits much harder".

Claim that the sanctions hurt the West more than Russia itself, is now repeated by Putin and his pundits. Though Russia's economy indeed shrank by 2.1%, much less than expected, the sanctions have had a significant impact on the country's industrial, high-tech and IT sectors, as well as its social welfare, markets and economy in general. Unemployment in Russia has increased to 7% in 2022 from 5% in 2021, while more than 50 large Russian companies have suspended their activities due to the lack of foreign components.

Russia's current war against Ukraine demonstrated the readiness of the democratic world to unite in the fight for freedom and liberal values. However, there are democracies all over the world in need of protection against autocracies willing to challenge international order. One year from the start of full-scale invasion, we introduce you the report “War in Ukraine: Lessons identified and lessons learned“, which analyzes policies and practices that have impacted Ukraine’s resilience in key sectors. Outcomes of this research can be used as recommendations for other democracies building resilience against conventional, hybrid, or other threats (e.g., natural disasters), from Europe to the Pacific.

Karolína Mrázková – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia

Thank you.

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