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It has been quite the week for those of us who have spent most of the last few years focused on Venezuela. Operation Absolute Resolve was a resounding success for American military might and justice – and a clear warning to America’s adversaries that our will and capability remain the best in the world. And yet, the joy of the moment was dampened by the discussion on what comes next: specifically, the potential empowerment of constitutionally illegitimate Maduro regime insider Delcy Rodriguez.
Now, President Trump is right to be realistic; while democracy matters enormously to both Venezuela and America’s future, democracy is only possible with security. But, if we look closely at Trump’s articulated rationale for apprehending Maduro, it is clear that there is only one viable long-term path: supporting Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado.
According to Politico, Trump is making three key demands of Delcy –“crack down on drug flows; kicking out Iranian, Cuban and other operatives of countries or networks hostile to Washington; and stopping the sale of oil to U.S. adversaries.” Indeed, each of these elements were mentioned as central to his preferred outcome in his press conference following Operation Absolute Resolve and in Secretary Rubio’s discussions on Meet the Press and Face the Nation.
Apprehending Maduro is step one in achieving each of these three outcomes. But empowering existing Chavistas long term would undermine them. Delcy Rodriguez is sanctioned by the U.S. and E.U. and implicated in the significant human rights violations and crimes against humanity committed by the Maduro regime. She is part of the same Chavista ideology that led to the expropriation of American assets in the first place – there would be no guarantee to American businesses that they would not experience precisely the same treatment under her leadership. This is all the more evident now that reporting suggests one of her first actions post Maduro arrest was to enact the Decreto de Estado de Conmocion Exterior, a new law that, in addition to permitting the search and arrest of citizens who supported Trump’s operation, will also establish “temporary military rule” over oil sector workers. Is this a safe environment for Venezuelans to feel secure remaining in their country, or American oil companies to set up shop? Is her warm embrace of the Russian, Chinese, and Iranian ambassadors at her swearing in a sign of countering foreign malign influence in Venezuela? Of course, the answer is no. Contrast this with Venezuelan democratic leader Maria Corina Machado and President-Elect Edmundo Gonzalez, whose Freedom Manifesto promises precisely the kind of democracy and capitalism that will empower both the Venezuelan people and American business – to say nothing of their clear electoral, popular, and constitutional legitimacy.
I am hopeful that, seeing Delcy Rodriguez’s recent actions, the administration will understand that whether she has one day, one month, or one year, she will follow in the footsteps of her Boss and refuse to negotiate in good faith. Absolute Resolve was a resounding operational success, but whether it is a strategic one depends on finding a path to empower Edmundo Gonzalez and Maria Corina Machado.
-Carrie Filipetti, Executive Director of the Vandenberg Coalition
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