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Opening remarks
- Don’t miss out on INTERACTIVE E-LEARNING
- Last Video explainer
- Soviet Joke
Policy & Research
- China: The West’s enemies are Russia’s friends
- The French frenzied diplomacy
U.S. Developments
- Biden promises a “swift” response if Russia invades
- Diplomacy & Deterrence
Kremlin’s Current Narrative
- “We don’t care about sanctions” – Russia.
- Ushakov said that the Biden-Putin conversation took place amid unprecedented US “hysteria”.
Taipei News
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Adam Sybera, an analyst of the Kremlin watch team, talks about the presence of the Russian military in Belarus as a part of joint military exercises.
The presence of Russian military in Belarus provide Russia with greater capacity for the invasion of Ukraine.
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A worker standing in a liquor line says:
“I have had enough, save my place, I am going to shoot Brezhnev.” Two hours later he returns to claim his place in line. His friends ask, “Did you get him?” “No, the line there was even longer than the line here.”
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China: The West’s enemies are Russia’s friends
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping signed a joint statement showing that despite their differences, they have enough in common to support each other against the common enemy: the West. Regarding the increasing pressure China is putting on Taiwan, it emphasized the one-China policy; while concerning the crisis in Europe and Russia's military pressure on Ukraine it expressly opposed further expansion of NATO. In addition, the statement also addressed the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, arguing that it would increase the risks of an arms race and nuclear proliferation.
Ultimately, the agreement is not only intended to establish China and Russia's mutual support but, from a broader perspective, it is also intended to establish a boundary between the traditional Western concept of liberal democracy and theirs. They outline an approach to democracy of their own that is dedicated to maintaining the primacy of the state over laws, markets, and citizens' freedoms. This positioning establishes that their authoritarian regimes do not need lectures in democracy from the West. Finally, to emphasize this even further, they derogate the Western reaction to the Ukrainian crisis to a Cold War-style approach, while in fact, part of the world finds itself having to take sides in one way or another.
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The French frenzied diplomacy
French President Emmanuel Macron, following his trips to Kyiv and Berlin, visited his Russian counterpart in Moscow on Monday 7 February. The Elysée has multiple interests at stake and just as many strategies that shape its current diplomatic approach. First, France aspires to replace Germany and establish Macron as the natural successor to Angela Merkel in leading Europe. Indeed, in the current situation, this is reflected in the hard-line approach adopted by France in line with the United States and its NATO partners, which is reminiscent of Merkel's strategy in the Crimean crisis in 2014 and which the current German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz is failing to replicate. In addition, France is pushing a diplomatic strategy, the so-called "Normandy Format" talks, for which it is trying to position itself as the main interlocutor in the Ukraine crisis, with Macron going so far as to describe Russia as a "friend."
The claim is that no security for Russia means no security for Europe, highlighting France's desire to promote European security strategies and policies that are more independent of the United States while maintaining constant communication and consultation with them. This positioning has raised questions among observers, wondering to what extent these diplomatic moves towards a European leadership role for France would benefit Macron and his campaign for re-election in April. In the end, despite Macron’s frenzy efforts, the Kremlin’s primary dialogue partner on European security is still the US and France conforms to their policies.
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Biden promises a “swift” response if Russia invades
As US President Joe Biden stated during the phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday, the US is ready to respond “swiftly and decisively” against Russian aggression in Ukraine. The options of retaliatory measures envisioned by the Biden administration comprise financial, technology, and military sanctions against Russia. In particular, the technology and military sanction package deals with imposing an embargo on American-made or American- designed technology needed for defence-related and consumer industries and arming insurgents in Ukraine. These sanctions will have a severe impact on industries, such as aerospace and arms that are crucial for government revenues. Furthermore, the sanctions are likely to include the Russian energy sector.
According to Biden, he will find a way to “bring an end” to the project of Nord Stream 2. In such a scenario, the Russian economy would face serious consequences as oil and gas export revenues are two-thirds of the total and about half of Russia’s federal budget revenues. But, financial sanctions are deemed to be the most powerful tool against Russia. It is noteworthy that Russia’s banking industry is highly concentrated. It means that the four-largest state-owned banks control about 55% of the entire sector’s assets. They are mostly hinged on Western financial markets that can’t be replaced by another country’s market. Besides, their business functioning is inextricably intertwined with access to dollars. Thus, the financial sanctions imposed on the banks, such as Sberbank, VTB, GazpromBank, VEB, and Russian Agricultural Bank would bear detrimental effects on the entire Russian economy as the abovementioned banks are the leading stakeholders in other sectors too.
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Diplomacy & Deterrence
Amid the increasing tensions along Ukraine’s borders, US President Joe Biden and the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reiterated their allegiance to “diplomacy and deterrence” during the phone call on Sunday. Moreover, Joe Biden underscored the importance of coordinated diplomatic efforts on European security. The President once again emphasized the Unites States’ support for conflict resolution efforts in the Normandy Format. Besides, he expressed hopes that both sides would reaffirm their commitments to the terms of the July 2020 ceasefire and advance the implementation of the Minsk Agreements. The US and Ukraine remain committed to diplomacy as a crucial tool for de-escalation.
During the phone call between Secretary of State Antony J.Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on February 12th, Blinken once again underlined that the diplomatic path to the resolution of the crisis was still open and appealed to Russia to engage in good-faith discussions. In addition, the message for talks with Russia emerged from Ukraine’s part on Sunday. The Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, requested a meeting with Russia and all participating states within 48 hours to discuss its reinforcement and redeployment along Ukraine’s borders and in Crimea. A positive message appeared from Russia’s part too on Monday. Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, advised Vladimir Putin to continue the talks with the West on Russian security demands. According to Lavrov, the US put forward concrete proposals on reducing military risks, in particular, offering to conduct dialogue on limits for missile deployments in Europe, restrictions on military drills, and other confidence-building measures.
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Kremlin's Current Narrative
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"We don't care about sanctions", Russia states
RT reports the opinion of Russia’s ambassador on Ukraine’s issue. On Sunday, Russia’s ambassador in Sweden, Victor Tatarintsev, reproached the West for “coercive measures.” Tatarintsev accused the US and NATO of escalating tensions in Europe. “The expansion of NATO is the biggest threat to Russia,” Tatarintsev claimed. Furthermore, Russia seeks legally binding guarantees that the Western military alliance will stop expanding eastward. This would prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
Russia repetitively tells that Moscow has no intentions to invade Ukraine. Moreover, Moscow’s Ministry of Defense announced that some of Russia's troops in Belarus, near the Ukrainian border, had completed their training exercises, and would begin the withdrawal process. At the same time, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova stated that “15 February 2022 will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed.” Moreover, Maria added that “the West has been shamed and destroyed without firing a single shot.” Nevertheless, earlier Tatarintsev asserted that Russia is not afraid of sanctions and penalties that the US, Britain, and the EU threatened Russia with. “Excuse my language, but we don’t give a sh**t about sanctions,” Victor Tatarintsev said.
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Ushakov said that the Biden-Putin conversation took place amid unprecedented US “hysteria”.
RT reports Biden warned Putin that "continuing the invasion" in Ukraine would result in serious costs for Moscow and the weakening of Russia's position. However, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov pointed out that sanctions were not the main theme of the talk between presidents. Ushakov stated that “at the backdrop of the allegations regarding the ‘invasion’, conditions are being created for possible provocative actions by the Ukrainian armed forces.” Moreover, in the phone call Putin stressed that "the Western countries do not put enough "pressure" on Kyiv to fulfil the Minsk deal", Ushakov noted. In addition to this, Ushakov reminded that over the past few months, Western officials and media have constantly blamed Moscow for seeking to attack Ukraine, “with the allegedly imminent invasion.”
Ushakov concluded that “no solid evidence to back up such claims, however, has ever emerged.” Earlier on Monday, Russia’s diplomat, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the response from NATO and the US was disappointing for Russia, but Russia still hoped for attaining a diplomatic solution. Moreover, shortly after Zakharova’s speech on Tuesday, Lavrov claimed that Western media reports of an imminent invasion amounted to “information terrorism.” In addition to this, Press Secretary for the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov said that the Western media should note that their predictions did not come true. Referring to the question of the “invasion,” considered by Russia as “the culmination of Western hysteria,” Peskov claimed that “the nature of this Western hysteria shows that, probably, the climax is still far away ... We need to be patient.”
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According to the 2022 Index of Economic Freedom released by the Heritage Foundation on February 14th Taiwan has been ranked sixth and is one of only seven countries that are listed in the top "Free" category. Taiwan moved upward after last year when it was placed in the "Mostly Free" category. With the new score of 80,1, Taiwan trespassed the threshold into the top group where there are seven countries ranked this year - Singapore, Switzerland, Ireland, New Zealand, Luxembourg, Taiwan and Estonia and became the 3rd among 39 countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
The index, established in 1995, measures economic freedom based on 12 indicators, property rights, judicial effectiveness, government integrity, tax burden, government spending, fiscal health, business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom, trade freedom, investment freedom, the financial freedom that assess how individuals can control their labour and property in a free regulatory environment. Taiwan scored over 80 in eight of the 12 indicators, including judicial effectiveness and government spending but had inadequate performances in the "labour freedom" and "financial freedom" indicators, scoring 68,7 and 60 in those categories.
Taiwan is one of the few countries in the world to have experienced continuous economic growth during the past five years, and its economic freedom has increased significantly during that period, the report says. South Korea was ranked 19th (mostly free), Japan 35th (moderately free) and People’s Republic of China 158th (repressed). In 2020 the index omitted two regions that had previously ranked close to the top by economic freedom: Hong Kong and Macau. The Heritage Foundation explained that Hong Kong was left out so that the index would only cover places "where governments exercise sovereign control of economic policies."
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Kremlin Watch is a strategic program of the European Values Center for Security Policy, which aims to expose and confront instruments of Russian influence and disinformation operations focused against the liberal-democratic system.
For comments. suggestions or media inquiries, please contact the Head of the Kremlin Watch Program Veronika Víchová at veronika.vichova@europeanvalues.cz
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