Russia’s security service intends to influence European choice of Moldova |
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Ukraine is in Dire Need of Economic Support |
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Russia suspends participation in the "grain agreement" |
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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- Putin says only Russia can be a real guarantor of Ukraine’s sovereignty
- Russia is absurdly calling for the “desatanization” of Ukraine
- Russia claims Kyiv carried out a terrorist attack in annexed Crimea
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Russia’s security service intends to influence European choice of Moldova |
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The will of the Moldovan population on EU integration |
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The European choice of Moldova happened when Maia Sandu won the presidential elections in 2020 and replaced the previous pro-Russian Igor Dodon. Sandu set the country’s course towards Western integration. The Moldovan authority signed the application for EU membership on 3rd March 2022. It was a clear political signal from Chisinau to Brussels that it is committed to the accession process. As a result, Moldova gained EU candidacy status on June 23rd 2022. The poll was conducted by Magenta Consulting on March 3-5th 2022 in Moldova. It demonstrated 61% of the respondents support the country's European Union membership, with nearly twice as many as 31% opting against such a scenario. The numbers indicate a noticeable enhancement in support for EU membership from the 46% of Moldovans who said they wanted the country to join the bloc in 2018.
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Subversive activities of the Russian special services |
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In September 2022 the largest protests since Sandu won a landslide election victory in 2020 started in Chisinau. At first sight, the dramatic soaring of energy prices and a huge increase in the inflation rate to 34% (August 2022) are the logical reasons for tensions between Moldovan citizens and the government. But in fact, Russia made its contribution to the energy crisis in Moldova in a way of reducing its gas supply to Moldova to destabilize the situation in the country and get the pro-European "Party of Action and Solidarity" government removed from power. At the same time, the Russian Security Service (FSB) strongly supported Ilan Shor, who is a leading figure in the Kremlin's efforts to subvert the country. Also, The Washington Post reported, one senior Russian politician praised the protest organizer, Ilan Shor, as “a worthy long-term partner” and even offered the Moldovan region led by Shor’s party a cheap Russian gas deal.
At first, they did not pose any threats to the president and her administration, but there is a clear tendency that pro-Russian protest movements are becoming more numerical. Reuters estimated the crowd at about 5,000 during the very first protest. Then it increased to about 7,000 during the rallies in the mid of October 2022. The methods of protest also changed as Balkan Insight reports, the protesters installed hundreds of tents on the pavements in front of the presidency building and parliament and blocked the busiest road in Chisinau, Stephen the Great Boulevard. at the beginning of October.
According to the publication of The Washington Post, Ukrainian intelligence received confidential materials indicating that Moscow withdrew tens of millions of dollars from some of Russia's largest state-owned companies to develop a "network" of Moldovan politicians and reorient Moldova towards Moscow. Recall that on Wednesday the US Treasury imposed sanctions on numerous Russian, and Moldovan organizations and individuals, including Ilan Shor, who "coordinated with representatives of other oligarchs to create political unrest in Moldova".
Shor denied being supported by the Russian security service, claiming that his party was independent and defended only the position of Moldovan citizens only. "Those who want to quickly and radically get gas and electricity at normal prices, as well as a good life, come to protest. Fight with us for a change that can happen today," concluded Ilan Shor on the 28th of October 2022.
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The Kremlin did not accept the European will of the Moldovan population and became hybrid warfare with Chisinau. Russia is using its proxies to destabilize the situation in Moldova and to push the country back to Moscow's sphere of influence. This irregular struggle makes Moldova reconsider its approach to state security. In this regard, the political will of the state is very important to address Russian hybrid influence. Then, Moldovan National Security Strategy should be updated on behalf of the European Union states experience, which means building "national resilience" to current threats. What is even more important – to hybrid threats.
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Ukraine is in Dire Need of Economic Support |
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Russian Forces Strike Civilian Infrastructure |
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Russian air strikes on critical Ukrainian utility infrastructure have reshaped daily life for millions. Ukrainians living in the country's central and western regions, who were up until now insulated from the fighting, now find themselves direct targets of the Russian military. Energy grids in major cities like Lviv and Kyiv have been severely damaged. These attacks are especially worrying with winter fast approaching. Effective heating and energy supply, or lack thereof, could be decisive in Ukraine's counteroffensive. Recent successes in repelling Russian forces could be quickly reversed without adequate energy supplies. In the face of these assaults, an economically-beleaguered Ukraine needs international assistance to provide for the basic needs of its citizens.
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The Situation on the Ground |
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The destruction of key infrastructure has already led to acute energy shortages. In Kyiv for instance, amid ongoing outages and rolling blackouts, utility company Yasno announced that system capacity was down 30% after the most recent attack. In his national addresses, President Zelensky has spoken at length about the cruelty of these Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure. He has urged residents to adapt to the current conditions as best as possible: "Conscious energy consumption is now needed by all Ukrainians [...] while there is a shortage in the general power system." His government has scrambled to repair utility infrastructure and has managed to quickly restore energy and water to many areas affected by the recent attacks. If Russia continues to target Ukraine’s utilities, however, this approach to recovery will not be sustainable.
Fending off the Russian invasion has left Ukraine in a very difficult economic situation. Skyrocketing energy prices and the destruction or seizure of local sources have sapped much of its budget. In July, the National Bank of Ukraine devalued the national currency (hryvnia) to keep up with these costs. But, with the war effort stalling and in many cases halting normal business, Ukraine's GDP is projected to contract substantially: an estimated 35% decrease for 2022.
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Speaking at the Second Ministerial Roundtable Discussion for Support to Ukraine, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on Ukraine’s allies to bolster their economic support: “the scale, predictability, and grant component of disbursements must improve.” The US has so far granted approximately $8.5 million in direct budgetary support to the Ukrainian government. But many NATO countries and other allies have lagged far behind. This is largely due to the ongoing European energy crisis—the stress the EU is scrambling to assuage—and the inflationary effects of the war on global macroeconomic prospects. Without consistent, significant support from other nations, Ukraine will struggle to mobilize workers to make repairs to its infrastructure. It will be much harder for the Ukrainian government to ensure the welfare of its people, and most relevant for its allies, to continue an effective campaign against Russian forces.
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The welfare of the Ukrainian people depends on international aid. But, as Zelensky has argued, economic assistance for Ukraine will ultimately benefit all. The war is the driving factor behind global inflation, price increases, and supply shortages. A peaceful conclusion to the conflict, which can only be reached if Ukraine proves resilient, will relieve many of these global economic pressures. Robust, sustained international assistance for Ukraine is critical for its humanitarian and military missions.
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Russia suspends participation in the "grain agreement" |
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Russian withdrawal from the Grain agreement |
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On October 29, Russia suspended the implementation of the "Black Sea initiative" indefinitely. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation stated that the reason was a "terrorist attack" against the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian vessels allegedly carried out by Ukraine with the participation of specialists from Great Britain.
The Ukrainian side announced the impossibility of exporting grain due to the Kremlin's actions, which pose a threat of famine in many countries in Asia and Africa. According to the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, the movement of 218 courts was blocked. World prices for wheat have already increased by 5%. World leaders condemned the decision and called on Russia to reconsider the suspension of the agreement. On October 31, the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine agreed on the movement of 14 vessels in the Black Sea, despite the position of the Russian Federation.
Ships with 354,500 tons of agricultural products departed from the ports of "Odesa," "Chornomorsk," and "Pivdennyi" to countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe. On November 2, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that the grain corridor to export Ukrainian commodities would start working from Wednesday "as before." After this announcement, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation published the statement that Russia is resuming its participation in the Black Sea grain initiative, as it received the "necessary guarantees from Ukraine."
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The Kremlin was preparing for the breakdown of the grain agreement in advance. Since September 18, Russian representatives have purposefully slowed the movement of ships along the humanitarian corridor, disrupting export contracts and the timely delivery of Ukrainian food to consumers. As of the end of October, more than 200 vessels with 2 million tons of food heading to the ports of Algeria, Egypt, Yemen, and Bangladesh were in the actual blockade.
Russia deliberately blocked grain for the most vulnerable countries in the context of food security, then accused Ukraine both at the level of Russian propaganda media and international institutions. The grain blockade is a direct continuation of Russia's missile, energy, and nuclear blackmail against Ukraine and the world.
The purpose of such blackmail is to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow. The attack on the Sevastopol Bay, of which Russia accuses Ukraine, was only a pretext, not a reason for Moscow's violation of the "grain agreement." In Sevastopol, only military targets were attacked - ships of the Russian Navy, so this attack cannot be considered a "terrorist attack."
These ships are carriers of "Kalibr" cruise missiles, with which Russia regularly shells critical infrastructure facilities and the civilian population of Ukraine. These ships are in no way involved in ensuring the safety of the "grain corridor." This was also confirmed by the UN Deputy Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Martin Griffiths.
Despite the Kremlin's unfounded statements, the "grain initiative" can be carried out without the participation of the Russian Federation. Under previous agreements, the Joint Coordination Centre brings together the UN and other parties. If Russia is no longer a party to the JCC, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN are still part of it. Thus, they can continue to work and guarantee compliance with the agreement's requirements without Russian inspectors. The actual implementation of this scenario has already begun. The "grain initiative" participants demonstrated that they could accomplish without Russia.
Recognizing the consequences of the hasty decision, Russia changed its mind on the fourth day after its demarche and returned to the previous agreements. The Kremlin media are promoting the narrative that the reason was "written security guarantees from Ukraine." However, it was possible to restore the agreement because of the pressure of Turkish President Erdogan on the Kremlin. This means that Turkey is establishing its dominance in the Black Sea.
If Russia tries to shell peaceful vessels or interferes with navigation through the humanitarian corridor, then all responsibility for the consequences for food security will fall solely on Moscow. Thus, such actions will be regarded as an act of international terrorism and piracy.
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To prevent the escalation of the conflict in the Black Sea region and for the safe passage of food vessels, the international community must continue to pressure Russia to implement the earlier agreements. The UN and Turkey play a vital role in this process. At the strategic level, Ukraine, as a potential NATO member, needs a large and robust fleet to ensure security in the Black Sea region. Thus, partners should invest in this direction too.
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Disinformation narratives and influence operations |
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Putin says only Russia can be a real guarantor of Ukraine’s sovereignty |
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A month after officially annexing Ukraine’s four regions and in a departure from his pre-invasion speech about Ukraine’s claim to statehood being baseless, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin stated at the Valdai conference that he now wants to be the guarantor of Ukraine's integrity and sovereignty. Answering a question about the reasons behind the Kremlin's "special military operation", Putin repeated the mantra of protecting the Donbas from "Nazis" and talked about the false history, claiming that Ukraine was created as an artificial state, put together by Russia.
These remarks that represent a mischaracterization of history are intended to justify Russian claims over Ukraine. Russia had in the past already been an official guarantor of Ukraine's independence – through the Budapest memorandum, under which Ukraine removed all Soviet-era nuclear weapons, Russia, together with the US and the UK pledged not to use any weapon against Kyiv. However, by annexing Crimea and four additional regions of Ukraine, and continuing brutal military aggression against the civilians, Putin's recent statement on Russia being a guarantor sounds ridiculous.
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Russia is absurdly calling for the “desatanization” of Ukraine |
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After Russia’s eight months long failed attempt to “denazify" Ukraine, authorities in the Kremlin seem to have set an additional military objective, which is a "de-Satanization” of the country. It is something that was voiced by Aleksiy Pavlov, assistant secretary of the Russian Security Council in an article for aif.ru. According to Pavlov, Ukraine is now home to hundreds of religious sects, or as he puts it, the “Church of Satan” that operate all across the country, brainwashing the locals. In this context, Pavlov suggested that with the continuation of the special military operation, it becomes more and more urgent to carry out the “de-Satanization” of Ukraine.
The potential shift from the concept of “denazification” seems to have to do more with providing the Russian military with additional motivation, rather than developing a concept that there are Satanists in Ukraine. Religious motivation, if duly implemented, can turn into an effective tool in raising the spirits of the Russian soldiers unwilling to fight the battle. However, it remains to be seen whether the Russian propaganda will fully embrace the new absurd claim that it is Ukraine that needs to be de-Satanized.
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Russia claims Kyiv carried out a terrorist attack in annexed Crimea |
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April 2022 sinking of Russia's Moskva battleship arguably played a significant role in demoralising the Russian army and lifting the spirits of the Ukrainian troops. It was the first time Russia lost a flagship since the 1905 Russo-Japanese war and the Moskva was also the largest vessel to be sunk in conflict since 1945. A somewhat similar success has been repeated when at the end of October, explosions in the Kremlin-held Sevastopol port in Crimea left several Russian military vessels damaged and destroyed. Among others, Admiral Makarov, a frigate designated the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet after the sinking of the missile cruiser Moskva was reported to be hit by the drones. Following the explosions, Russia’s Defence Ministry issued a statement, claiming that Kyiv carried out a terrorist attack
(sic!) on its Black Sea fleet, which it unlawfully maintains in annexed Crimea. The Ministry also blamed the UK for the attack, saying that a Royal Navy unit masterminded the operations from the southern Ukrainian port of Ochakiv – something that the UK government has rejected.
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This newsletter is supported by the European Cultural Foundation
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In collaboration with experts from Information Defense Hub
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Itai Abraham – Dmytro Filonenko – Mariam Lashkhia
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